Miami Marlins: Trade Deadline Overview

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The Marlins are used to big trades. The franchise has time and time again cast their fanbase aside and pulled transactions out of nowhere, usually including some of their best players. These fire-sales have come both after successful seasons and horrendous ones, mid-season or seemingly at random moments in time. To predict what this team will do at the deadline might be a bit of a fool’s errand, as even during the most celebrated moments in franchise history Marlins were cast overboard.

In 1997, after winning their first World Series (in just their fifth year of existence) ownership decided to blow up the team, trading star players Moises Alou, Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Bobby Bonilla and Charles Johnson over the next six months, acquiring young talent in the process. A.J. Burnett and Derek Lee would be the fruit of this trade-labour, both turning into stars (but not all-stars, unbelievably) in their own right.

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Burnett and Lee would be a big part of the next championship team in Florida, when the Marlins again won the World Series in 2003. Lee would be rewarded with a ticket to Chicago, where he would continue to garner MVP votes and finally get to his first (and second) all-star game. His 2005 season is still one of the greatest in Cubs history, finishing with a 1.080 OPS and taking a real run at the Triple Crown (which he would end up missing, finishing first in batting average but second in home runs and seventh in runs batted in).

The surprising moves wouldn’t end there, as in 2005 the team dealt ace Josh Beckett to the Red Sox, slugger Carlos Delgado to the Mets, and speedster Juan Pierre to the Cubs. While fans at the time hated that they were dealing their top talent away, again they brought future stars in return. Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Jacobs and Ricky Nolasco all came over that offseason and would play big roles for the Marlins soon after.

At the end of 2007, the Fish would deal their young superstar Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers along with World Series hero Dontrelle Willis. During and following the 2012 season, their first as the rebranded Miami Marlins, the front office would blow it up again, dealing Ramirez to the Dodgers mid-season, and completing a blockbuster in the offseason with the Toronto Blue Jays, moving Josh Johnson along with Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes less than a year after signing them to the biggest free agent deals in club history.

The Marlins are used to big trades.

This season is an odd one for the Florida fish, with their biggest star being their worst player, and a make-shift bullpen being one of the best in the league. A team that wasn’t picked by many to be a contender finds itself two games over .500, and in a position to go out and improve a team that looks like it has a real shot at a wildcard position.

Giancarlo Stanton is currently hitting .192/.299/.415, and though there were always red flags about his performance (mainly his tendency to swing-and-miss 50% more than the league average), it would be foolish to think he won’t improve on that line down the stretch. If he ever starts performing like the 6+ WAR player he’s shown over the past couple of seasons, the Marlins would have the best outfield in baseball.

Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich are showing the rest of the league why Stanton isn’t the only Marlin on the billboards outside the stadium, as both young outfielders are having tremendous campaigns. They rank 4th and 8th respectively in WAR among NL outfielders, putting up a combined 4.6 through the first third of the season.

Though the Marlins lost 2015 batting champ Dee Gordon for 80 games earlier this year to a PED suspension, he is eligible to return July 29th, which will feel like a deadline acquisition in itself. Derek Dietrich has done admirably in his absence however, performing well at the keystone. When Gordon returns, the team will have an abundance of middle infielders, with Adeiny Hechavarria still providing excellent defense at shortstop, if underwhelming at the plate.

The bullpen has been outstanding, with six relievers coming in with an ERA of 3.38 or below. Bryan Morris is probably out for the season, but this group, led by closer A.J. Ramos, has been more than enough to get the team through late inning scenarios.

As stated above, it’s really a foolish task trying to anticipate what owner Jeffery Loria and Co. will do this season. For all we know they’re trying to move out Ozuna right now because he’ll be eligible for arbitration this offseason (no seriously, that wouldn’t be very surprising). But if they are to try and improve this summer, the team should be looking at two key areas:

Next: A Rotation Upgrade

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The rotation, while having a Cy Young contender at the top in Jose Fernandez, is quite unremarkable thereafter. Fernandez has been everything Marlins fans hoped for and more, sitting second in the NL with 3 fWAR already, and posting the lowest FIP of his career (2.00). His 118 strikeouts trail only Clayton Kershaw, and he would be one of the most frightening pitchers to see in a one-game wildcard matchup.

Adam Conley has followed up his impressive showcase last season with 13 steady starts, but while he has flashed brilliance at times, his consistency is still not there. His latest outing at Arizona was his worst of the season, giving up five earned runs on eleven hits, and lasting just five innings. While he’s a fine back end option at this point, trusting him with the ball in game two of a series would be quite a risk.

Free agent signing Wei-Yin Chen has been a bust, getting knocked around in the tough NL East to an ERA of 4.68, the worst of his MLB career. His five-year $80 million dollar contract looks like an albatross at this point, and Marlins fans are probably hoping he opts out after the 2017 season. Paying $22MM to a 34-year old Chen is going to be quite troublesome for a historically frugal team, if they can’t pull another rabbit from their transaction hat and get out from under the contract.

Tom Koehler and Justin Nicolino make up the rest of the rotation, performing fine as back end options, but lacking any real upside. They can take the ball every fifth day if the other guys are making history, but can’t compete with the likes of the New York and Washington rotations.

The team does have options like Jarred Cosart, Kendry Flores and Jose Urena in AAA New Orleans, but none of them look like options to really kick-start a major league squad. The Marlins will need to make an addition here if they intend on keeping pace in the division, as the Mets and Nationals have two of the best rotations in the league.

Next: Options On The Mound

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When it comes to acquiring starting pitching at the deadline, it’s usually premium arms that are a few months from free agency, or a highly paid veteran who may still have some use for the next year or so.

Last season saw quite a few of these deals, with David Price, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, J.A. Happ, Mat Latos, and Scott Kazmir all moved before getting paid in free agency, and the Phillies finally parting with Cole Hamels for an excellent return.

2016 was, however, an excellent pitching class when it came to free agency, having a huge number of arms compared to this year. With Stephen Strasburg re-signing and seemingly off the table, it’s a thin market for teams looking for rentals. If the Marlins want to go out and get one of these few remaining options, they’ll have to pay a big prospect premium to get them – despite none of them performing all that well.

Andrew Cashner – San Diego Padres

With Cashner headed to free agency for the first time, many predicted he would finally harness the stuff that has made him a scouting darling for years and put up a big season. Instead, he’s gone the opposite way and put up a terrible first third of the year. This may actually be in the Marlins’ benefit though, as they could conceivably get him for much less than what he would have cost at the beginning of the season.

The Padres are a club without a direction right now, as they overpay veterans to perform poorly, while trying to develop their young core. Though Cashner is sure to get a qualifying offer at year’s end, San Diego will still be looking to move him for a package this summer.

Perhaps if he changes coasts, and gets back onto a team with a winning record he’ll start performing like the last few years. Getting moved mid-season would actually be a plus for Cashner regardless of results, as it would remove the qualifying offer from around his neck as he goes into the winter still as one of the best arms on the market.

The White Sox already went out and got one of the over-paid veterans, dealing for James Shields earlier this month. He’s been terrible for Chicago, which may give more teams pause when they go after pitchers under contract past 2016. The Marlins should be wary of who they pursue, but there are some interesting names in play.

C.C Sabathia – New York Yankees

If you’re talking about starters that are overpaid, you will eventually get to C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees’ southpaw used an opt-out clause to leverage an extension to his already massive deal in 2011, earning him $25 million this season. The contract has a vesting option for 2017 for another $25MM, should Sabathia stay clear of any injuries in his throwing shoulder. While he has seen time on the DL this season, it was for a groin strain and had nothing to do with his seemingly healthy shoulder.

Sabathia has turned the clock back this year, throwing 59 quality innings and carrying a 2.28 ERA into the middle of June. While his extremely low home run rate is sure to come back up at some point, perhaps his admission and subsequent treatment for alcohol abuse has really helped him turn a corner and get back to the dominant pitcher he once was.

He does, however, have a no-trade clause in his contract and would have to waive it to go to Miami. Whether he would do this is unclear, but if the Marlins were to guarantee the option they could probably convince him to move south.

The Yankees don’t look like they’re going anywhere, and are looking to get younger. They would need to kick some money in to make the Marlins stomach that big contract, but it would still help them to move on from some of their overpaid veterans.

Next: A Bour-ish Option At First

While the Marlins have a talented outfield, and some good-if-not-great options up the middle, first base has been an issue all season long. They’ve gotten only 0.5 WAR from the position, something that will have to change if they’re to push for that wildcard spot.

Justin Bour performed admirably as a rookie last year, slashing .262/.321/.479 in his first full season and coming fifth in ROY voting. His 23 home runs and 117 wRC+ looked nice, except when combined with his close to league-worst baserunning and poor fielding. He ended up with just 0.3 fWAR despite the strong batting line, and is actually hitting worse this season.

His base running has improved from historically bad to just below average, and his fielding at first has improved some. This would be promising if he was still a prospect or young player, but as Bour gets closer to thirty (he turned 28 a few weeks ago) these areas are more likely to diminish even further.

Chris Johnson, the other Marlin to spend any significant time at first base this season, is the definition of a replacement player. While he provides excellent defense at first and at least has a bit of positional flexibility he hasn’t been able to hit since 2013 and really seems destined for a return to the minors.

The Marlins do have long-time minor leaguer Xavier Scruggs hitting well in AAA, but he hasn’t shown an ability to hit major league pitching in the short stints he’s seen in the big leagues. He probably wouldn’t be much of an improvement over Bour, if at all.

There is also top prospect Josh Naylor, picked 12th overall in 2015. He’s dominating A-ball, but isn’t expected at the MLB level until at least 2018. His presence would make the team pause slightly at bringing in a young player to fill the position, but there are a few options that are still very interesting for a team looking to make a splash this season.

Next: Options At First

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Bour seems extremely well suited to be a bat off the bench with his left-handed power stroke, but could also be an effective player in a straight platoon. His career 50 wRC+ against left-handed pitching highlights some of his problems playing every day, and if the Marlins aren’t willing to go out and get a full-time first baseman there are some platoon options available.

Chris Carter – Milwaukee Brewers

If you want right-handed power, there are few better places to look than at Chris Carter. The former Athletic and Astro is back at it this season, already clubbing 17 home runs for the Brewers. His .286 ISO leads all MLB first basemen and he has historically hit lefties better than righties. While he doesn’t offer much on defense, he and Bour together could form a pretty destructive duo.

The Brewers are a terrible team once again, and will be looking to sell assets at the deadline. After being non-tendered by the Astros last year, Carter signed for just $2.5 million with the Brew-Crew and actually is still under team control for another three seasons. As the Astros found out when he was a super-two player in 2015, power plays in arbitration and the Marlins would have to be careful not to fall in the same trap.

Because of his past and only so-so performance this season (in everything but power) one would imagine he’d come fairly cheap at the deadline. If the Marlins trust that Bour’s improvement in the field and on the paths is real, perhaps giving him a partner who can set off that monstrosity in center field is enough.

Steve Pearce – Tampa Bay Rays

In the past when you looked at Tampa’s Steve Pearce, you’d normally see a lefty-masher that can play a few different spots. This year however, he might not be seen as just a platoon option. The 33-year old utility-man has played all over the infield, and put up some massive numbers at the plate. His 1.9 WAR actually puts him even with Anthony Rizzo for third across the league’s first base group.

The .336/.410/.555 slash line looks unbelievable, and while it may come down some it’s not like Pearce hasn’t done this before. In 2014, he put up 4.9 WAR in just 383 PA while slashing .293/.373/.556.

The Rays aren’t going anywhere this season, and as the deadline approaches they’ll start selling off their expiring contracts. Pearce’s $4.75MM salary is actually the Rays’ third-highest mark this season, and he’s set to become a free agent at the end of the year. The payroll-starved Tampa Bay team would love to get his number off the books, even for just half a season as they look to retool for next year.

One would imagine the Marlins wouldn’t have to give up much to acquire Pearce even amidst such a strong season. If his line does prove to be a mirage, he’ll at least profile better as a platoon partner than Chris Johnson, and give them some more flexability around the diamond.

Byung-ho Park – Minnesota Twins

After a huge career in Korea that saw Byung-ho Park hit 210 home runs, including back-to-back 50+ seasons the last two years, the Minnesota Twins handed him a four-year $11 million dollar contract (with an optional fifth year for $6.5 million) to bring his talents to the MLB.

While he hasn’t found the consistency he had in Korea, Park has shown some great baserunning and defense – at least when he sees the field ahead of the Twins’ Joe Mauer. His .255 BABIP hurts his overall line, but he’s brought a lot of the power over with him, swatting eleven home runs in just 213 PA. It looks even better when you see that ISO spike to .268 when hitting off left-handers, making him a nice platoon option for Bour in Miami.

It’s hard to see Minnesota give up on him this quickly with such little risk attached to the 29-year old, but with the Twins looking so far from contention perhaps it’d be best to move on from Park before it really ever gets going.

Next: New York Mets: Trade Deadline Overview

Whether Park can ever unlock the hitting that made him a superstar in Korea or not, he’s probably already a nice candidate to platoon with Bour in Miami. For a team always looking for inexpensive options, his guaranteed low price tag would look look mighty tempting when it gets closer to the date. If he can smack a few more longballs between now and then, perhaps “Park Bang” will be headed to South Florida.

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