MLB: Will We Ever See Another Player Reach 3,000 hits?

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The countdown to 3,000 hits is on for Ichiro, but there are a handful of MLB players in the game today who are also knocking on the door to join the club. Who has the best chance of reaching this prestigious career milestone?

In Major League Baseball, there are a few numbers that over time have come to be so iconic as to be seemingly immortal. The pitcher with 300 wins. The slugger with 500 home runs. The 29 men who have reached the 3,000 hit plateau in their careers are a part of this cultural-historical cadre as well.

A brief glimpse at the list of players who have reached 3,000 hits in their big league careers offers a veritable who’s who not only of baseball history’s most prolific batsmen, but of those who have remained peak performers throughout long careers. No player who has amassed 3,000 hits in his career to this point played fewer than 17 seasons, and several plied their trade for more than two decades.

26 of the club’s members have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Alex Rodriguez, the only active member, will likely end up there as well, despite his sordid PED past, while all-time hits leader Pete Rose is ineligible due to his lifetime ban from the game, and Rafael Palmeiro, under a PED cloud himself, is no longer on the ballot.

Today there are a handful of players primed to join the company of Cobb, Musial, Clemente and other luminaries of the game’s past. Ten active players are at least two-thirds of the way there, but not all will reach the finish line. There are also a number of young players who are off to the kind of starts to their careers that could have them, in another decade or more, carving their own path towards the club.

Using the Bill James Favorite Toy formula, we take a look at the players in the big leagues right now who at the very least stand a shot at reaching the milestone. No one is a sure thing, and predictions can prove inaccurate, but based purely on the numbers, the 3,000 hits club should begin preparing to welcome a new batch of players to its ranks very soon.

Next: A great start.

Just Getting Started

The consistency and longevity required to reach 3,000 hits is something that appears to be reserved only for the exceptional few in big league history. The game’s past is littered with star players, some of the biggest names the game has ever known, that either fell short of the mark or didn’t even come close.

Two players whose careers are still relatively in their infancies that are off to a fast start toward defying the odds and reaching 3,000 hits are a contrast in both style and notoriety. Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels is one of the brightest, most highly publicized stars in the MLB today, a fixture of all-star games, MVP voting, and highlight reels.

His counterpart is Jose Altuve, the diminutive second baseman of the Houston Astros who, despite being an All-Star himself, winning a batting title and taking home two Silver Sluggers, continues to fly under the radar and rack up monstrous numbers in near-anonymity.

Trout will turn 25 in August, and already is given a 26 percent chance of reaching 3,000 hits by the calculation. Known more for his power, the New Jersey native has averaged 185 hits per 162 games thus far in a career that is only now in its fifth full season. And there is reason to believe that Trout has only barely begun to scratch the surface as a complete hitter, as 2016 is seeing a continuation from last season of improvements to his line drive percentage, strikeout ratio and walk ratio.

Additionally, Trout is maintaining the same ridiculously high batting average on balls in play that he has put up throughout his career. His extra-base hit percentage has also fallen the past two seasons, suggesting that he is becoming more willing to take what pitchers give him rather than swinging for the fences at all times.

The numbers for Altuve, who just turned 26 in May, are also trending in a positive direction, though a slightly different one than Trout’s. He has also seen drastic improvement in line drive percentage, strikeout ratio and walk ratio, but is experiencing a surge in his power numbers. Altuve is currently obliterating his career averages in home run ratio, extra-base hit percentage and ground ball to fly ball ratio.

Altuve is also in his fifth full season and is already ahead of Rose’s hit pace at this juncture in his career. He should easily surpass the 1,000 hit mark at some point in 2016 and is given a 34 percent chance by the calculation of totaling 3,000 by the time he hangs up his cleats. If Altuve continues on as he is and enjoys the necessary health and longevity in his career, joining the club is a very distinct possibility.

Next: On his way.

A 50/50 Chance

Among today’s crop of more established MLB hitters with a shot at reaching the 3,000 hits plateau, Robinson Cano is a name to keep an eye on. As he enjoys a resurgent year with the contending Seattle Mariners, the projection gives him a 51 percent chance of reaching the mark.

Now 33 and in his 12th big league season, Cano passed 2,000 hits at the end of 2015 and has averaged just short of 200 per 162 games in his career. He’s just ahead of that pace this season, despite seeing a dip in his batting average on balls in play relative to his career average (.291 vs. .322), which actually suggests his production has room for improvement.

Thus far in 2016, Cano is putting up the best home run and extra-base hit percentages of his tenure in the Pacific Northwest, along with small improvements to his strikeout percentage and ground ball to fly ball ratio. He is on pace to set career highs in home runs and runs batted in this year, and amass his highest hit total since 2010. If he continues at a similar rate, Cano is projected to reach 3,000 hits before his contract with the M’s expires in 2023.

Next: The greatest hitter of his generation?

The Metronome

It’s up for argument, but the statistics say that Miguel Cabrera may well be the greatest hitter of his generation, and having just turned 33 in April, he has time to erase any doubts. Well on his way to 500 home runs, winner of a Triple Crown, six Silver Sluggers and two MVP awards, and cruising along at pretty much the same pace of production as every other season in his career, Miggy is given a 92 percent chance of making it to 3,000 hits.

The scary thing is that the calculation takes his injury-shortened 2015 campaign into account, which actually diminishes his odds. Prior to last season, Cabrera had never played fewer than 148 games in a full season, and has not missed one yet in 2016. With a 162-game average of 195 hits over his career, the only thing standing between him and becoming one of only a handful of players to amass 500 home runs and 3,000 hits is remaining healthy.

Cabrera is essentially the baseball equivalent of a metronome, with his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, batting average on balls in play, strikeout percentage, walk percentage and extra-base hit percentage thus far this season all comparable to his career averages.

If he continues to remain as consistent, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could retire in the top ten in both home runs and hits, a feat only accomplished throughout the history of the game by Hank Aaron.

Next: Two knocking on the door.

Only a Matter of Time

Joining Cabrera as players for whom 3,000 hits seems to be a foregone conclusion are Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre. The two rank third and fourth, respectively, among active hits leaders, and could both reach the mark by the end of 2017. If Cabrera has any competition for the mantle of greatest hitter his generation, Pujols and Beltre are it.

While there are rumblings as to whether Pujols has been worth his mega-contract with the Los Angeles Angels, no one can argue the stats he has produced over the course of his career. Already in 12th place on the all-time home run list, and poised to break into the top ten by the end of the season, the 36-year-old is headed towards rarefied air. Like Cabrera, Pujols appears destined to join the 500 home run, 3,000 hit club sooner rather than later.

Given a 97 percent chance of reaching the 3,000 mark, Pujols is less than 300 hits shy. With a career 162-game average of 189, reaching the milestone is basically just a formality on his way to Cooperstown.

Beltre is also given a 97 percent chance of attaining 3,000 hits by the projection, needing fewer than 200 and having just turned 37. Also a contender for the 500 home run, 3,000 hit club, he has seen a dip in his batting average on balls in play in 2016, but has remained consistent with his career averages in his extra-base hit percentage and ground ball percentage.

The Rangers third baseman’s home run percentage and strikeout percentage have improved a bit this year, and he is roughly on pace to match his career average for hits. Beltre’s membership in the 3,000 hits club should be activated sometime before next season’s All-Star break.

Next: All-time hit king?

Standing in the Doorway

The greatest odds the projection can give are 97.5 percent, but at this point the question isn’t if Ichiro Suzuki will reach the mark, but when. At 42 years old and in his 16th season in the big leagues, Ichiro stands just 23 hits shy as of this writing of becoming the 30th player in history to amass 3,000 career hits.

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Throughout his first ten seasons in the United State, Ichiro averaged more than 220 hits per year, and in 2004, his 262 broke the single-season record set by George Sisler in 1920. During that decade, he was an All-Star and a Gold Glove Award winner every year, took home three Silver Sluggers and won American League Rookie of the Year and MVP.

While production and playing time have waned in the past few years, there is little doubt that Ichiro is Hall of Fame-bound. The only real spark of debate is whether, given his nine seasons playing professionally in Japan, he is about to do something much bigger than 3,000 hits. When Ichiro’s 1,278 hits overseas are added in, he sits at 4,255 for his career, or one shy of tying and two from breaking Rose’s all-time record.

Next: Pete Rose not impressed with Ichiro breaking hit record

Whether he is considered the all-time hit king or not, Ichiro is about to join one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball history. His 3,000 hits in MLB will be an accomplishment so few have attained and will cement his place as one of the most skilled hitters the game has known.

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