Only a Matter of Time
Joining Cabrera as players for whom 3,000 hits seems to be a foregone conclusion are Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre. The two rank third and fourth, respectively, among active hits leaders, and could both reach the mark by the end of 2017. If Cabrera has any competition for the mantle of greatest hitter his generation, Pujols and Beltre are it.
While there are rumblings as to whether Pujols has been worth his mega-contract with the Los Angeles Angels, no one can argue the stats he has produced over the course of his career. Already in 12th place on the all-time home run list, and poised to break into the top ten by the end of the season, the 36-year-old is headed towards rarefied air. Like Cabrera, Pujols appears destined to join the 500 home run, 3,000 hit club sooner rather than later.
Given a 97 percent chance of reaching the 3,000 mark, Pujols is less than 300 hits shy. With a career 162-game average of 189, reaching the milestone is basically just a formality on his way to Cooperstown.
Beltre is also given a 97 percent chance of attaining 3,000 hits by the projection, needing fewer than 200 and having just turned 37. Also a contender for the 500 home run, 3,000 hit club, he has seen a dip in his batting average on balls in play in 2016, but has remained consistent with his career averages in his extra-base hit percentage and ground ball percentage.
The Rangers third baseman’s home run percentage and strikeout percentage have improved a bit this year, and he is roughly on pace to match his career average for hits. Beltre’s membership in the 3,000 hits club should be activated sometime before next season’s All-Star break.
Next: All-time hit king?