Philadelphia Phillies Trade Deadline Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have begun to fade in the National League’s East Division. Could that make them sellers at the trade deadline?
One month ago, the Philadelphia Phillies were the biggest surprise in Major League Baseball. After a 4-2 defeat of the Miami Marlins, the Phillies sat 24-17 and in a tie with the New York Mets for second place in the NL East, just half a game back of the Washington Nationals. The young, rebuilding ballclub helmed by Pete Mackanin was defying expectations and forcing some to wonder if they could contend throughout the summer.
Fast forward to today and the picture is much different. Philadelphia has gone 6-20 since that high-water mark, and at 30-37, now finds itself trailing the Nationals by 12 games. The team is dead last in the National League in batting average and on-base percentage, and second to last in runs scored, slugging percentage, and OPS. The pitching staff that had kept the Phillies afloat through the first month and a half of the season began to show its inexperience as well, and a regression to the middle of the NL pack took place.
Lately, a right biceps injury landed promising young starter Vincent Velasquez on the disabled list, and longtime everyday players Ryan Howard and Peter Bourjos were benched due to lack of production. Howard, who is in the final year of a 5-year, $125 million mega contract, has fallen from being the face of the franchise to the focus of fans’ derision, slashing just .148/.208.352 in 55 games, with 10 home runs and 21 runs batted in this season.
The Phillies began their rebuild in December of 2014 with the trade of fan favorite shortstop and former NL MVP Jimmy Rollins to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Antonio Bastardo, Marlon Byrd, Jonathan Papelbon, Cole Hamels, Ben Revere, Chase Utley, and Ken Giles were also dealt over the course of the next year, and the rebuild was in full swing.
All of this is to say, that in the span of just a month, Philadelphia has gone from being a potential buyer at the trade deadline to being in a position to further bolster its rebuilding effort by unloading veterans in exchange for additional prospects to be added to a promising young core.
Let’s take a look at who the Phillies could have on the block.
Next: The Young Core
The Untouchables
Let’s get this out of the way first. Under nearly no circumstances should Philadelphia be trading away the cornerstones of its young core in Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Velasquez, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, or any of the top prospects it has waiting in the minors. It should take a king’s ransom to pry any of them away, and that’s highly unlikely to happen.
Herrera, who was a Rule 5 draft pick after the 2014 season, is following up a solid rookie season with all-star caliber play in 2016. The center fielder has a slash line of .309/.410/.428 with a 1.9 bWAR that is second on the team.
Franco has struggled some, amassing a -0.3 bWAR thus far this year, but has shown flashes of middle of the order pop in his bat with team-highs of 11 homers and 33 RBIs.
Shortstop J.P. Crawford, the organization’s 2013 first round draft pick and top prospect, is also waiting in the wings, and could find himself in the City of Brotherly Love very soon.
The young pitching that got the Phillies through its hot start has the potential to rival the staffs of the Mets and Nationals in a year or two. Eickhoff, Nola, and Velasquez are cornerstones that have combined for 4.7 bWAR.
With top prospects such as Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, and Mark Appel, they form a stable of arms on the starting bump and out of the bullpen that could develop into one of baseball’s most dominant.
Philadelphia also had a 2016 draft that was roundly applauded, including outfielder and No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak, second rounder Kevin Gowdy, a high school right-handed pitcher, and third round shortstop Cole Stobbe, widely considered a steal after he fell slightly.
The rebuilding effort is off to a great start, and any moves the Phillies make at this year’s deadline should serve to enhance it, not mortgage it.
Next: So who is on the block?
The Untradeables
Much as Philadelphia would probably love to unload some of its dead weight, several players have performed so poorly as to completely erase their value. Howard, Bourjos, and Darin Ruf have each been flat out bad.
The contract given to Howard, who won the 2005 NL Rookie of the Year award and the 2006 NL MVP, and is second only to Mike Schmidt on the franchise’s all-time home run list, is widely panned around the league as the among the worst of the past decade. Since signing it, Howard has fallen off a cliff, fighting injuries and struggles at the plate to the tune of -4.5 bWAR. He’s never come close to replicating the numbers he put up between 2006 and 2011 and was finally benched by Mackanin this season in favor of Tommy Joseph.
Bourjos, claimed by the Phillies off waivers in the offseason, has struggled even by career .238/.296/.374 standards. In 59 games, the 29-year old outfielder has been worse than replacement-level, slashing .215/.243/.315 with just one home run and 11 RBIs, and putting up a -0.6 bWAR.
As bad as Howard and Bourjos have been, Ruf has been even worse. Also 29, he slashed .158/.206/.193 with no homers and three RBIs in 31 games, resulting in a -0.9 bWAR and a demotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. After a promising 2013 season that saw him put up a .247/.348/458 slash line with 14 longballs and 30 RBIs in 73 games, Ruf essentially has no trade value at this point.
Next: Don’t the Phils have any tradeable assets?
The Setup Men
The Phillies may not have much from a positional player standpoint to offer up to interested teams at this year’s deadline, but most contenders this time of year are more concerned with pitching anyways. In this regard, the team has a few pieces that could draw calls before July 31st.
From a bullpen perspective, David Hernandez, Hector Neris, and Andrew Bailey could be shopped. Hernandez is having the best season of the bunch, having gone 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 30 appearances to this point. The 30-year old righty has a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and averages nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings.
Neris is a power arm that could also be attractive on the trade market, though after a strong start to the season he has struggled of late. In his first 26 appearances in 2016, Neris sported a 1.29 ERA, but has given up eight earned runs in 6.1 innings for an ERA of 11.37, with 11 hits and eight walks over his last eight. For the season, the right-hander is 1-3 with a 3.15 ERA and averages 11 punchouts per nine innings.
At first glance, Bailey’s stats do not jump out, particularly lately. A 32-year old righty, Bailey has been knocked around in the month of June to the tune of six earned runs in eight innings of work, and has seen his ERA balloon nearly two runs from 2.30 to 4.09. Still, Bailey is an experienced back-end arm with a 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 89 saves in his career, and could help provide bullpen depth to a contender.
Next: Another one from the pen.
The Closer
After spending the first three and a half years of his big league career as a starter for the Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates, Jeanmar Gomez has spent the past three seasons reinventing himself as a reliable bullpen arm. In his first season as the Phillies closer, the 28-year old right-hander has converted 19 of 21 save opportunities.
Like many of his teammates on Philadelphia’s staff, though, Gomez has seen a lights-out start to the season make a 180-degree turn. After concluding April with a 1.80 ERA and a perfect 8-for-8 save mark, and going 9-for-10 in closing the door with a 3.00 ERA in May, June has been tortuous for him. In four appearances covering 4.2 innings, Gomez has yielded four runs on seven hits, good for a 7.71 ERA, and blowing a save.
The Phillies are 4-10 during the month of June, and few of those games have been close, thus the closer hasn’t factored in very much. After throwing 27 innings in the season’s first two months, Gomez’s work has been nearly non-existent. That could be enticing to a contending team at the deadline if it continues, as he will be fresher than some of the other arms that will be available.
Of course, pitchers with the ability to close, even one like Gomez who is not a prototypical flamethrower, can be very hard to come by. It is certainly possible, particularly if Hernandez, Neris, and Bailey get moved, that Philadelphia will hold on to him. A young pitching staff with as much potential as that of the Phillies needs a steady hand at the back end of the bullpen, and Gomez has more or less proven to be up to the task.
Next: One more on the block.
The Starter
Acquired in a trade with Arizona one year to the day that the Diamondbacks traded for him from the Tampa Bay Rays, 2011 American League Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson has seemingly gone from future star to perennial trade bait in the blink of an eye. The 29-year old righty’s contract is up at the end of the season, and it is unlikely that he fits into Philadelphia’s long-term plans in the rotation given the number of promising young arms in the organization.
Hellickson has had a very up-and-down season for the Phillies in 2016, going 4-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 starts covering 80.2 innings. Command has been an issue, as he’s thrown more than six innings only four times and, as has been the case throughout his career, has been susceptible to giving up the longball, yielding 15 home runs already.
The team has lost Hellickson’s last five starts dating back to May 24th, and in June he has been a wreck like the rest of the pitching staff. In three starts this month covering 21 innings, he has given up 14 runs, all earned, on 21 hits, good for an 0-2 record and 7.41 ERA.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers Trade Deadline Preview
Unless he is able to turn things around in the next month or so, Hellickson’s trade value will likely continue to plummet. But he has shown in the past that he can compete, eat up innings, and give his team a chance to win, and if he can regain that form, that could be worthwhile for a contender looking to shore up the back end of its rotation or its middle relief corps. This would be the best case scenario for Philadelphia, as any return on a player not in the team’s future plans would be a win for the organization.