Baltimore Orioles Trade Deadline Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are contending for an AL East crown despite their mediocre starting pitching. What will they do to bolster their staff at the trade deadline?

Heading into today’s action, the Baltimore Orioles are 38-28, and sit atop the standings in the American League East by a game over the Boston Red Sox and two over the Toronto Blue Jays. Having just taken two of three from the BoSox and welcoming the Jays for the weekend, the O’s appear to be sitting pretty, but a closer look brings up a host of questions as to whether or not the team can sustain its success.

Baltimore leads the AL with an astounding 103 home runs and trails only Boston in doubles, slugging percentage, and OPS, so scoring runs is not a problem. The Orioles also have one of the most dominant closers in the game in Zach Britton, who is a perfect 20 out of 20 in save opportunities in 2016 and currently sports a 0.96 earned run average.

Where the team has struggled, though, is with its starting rotation. Chris Tillman has been an ace, going 9-1 with a 2.87 ERA through his first 14 starts. But beyond him, Baltimore’s staff is a bit of a mess. Among the quartet of Mike Wright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman, and Tyler Wilson, not one has an ERA under 4.00 or a record over .500. Jimenez, who signed a 4-year, $50 million contract prior to the 2014 season, has been so bad that manager Buck Showalter demoted him to bullpen duty recently.

With a lineup that features the likes of Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Adam Jones, and averages just short of five runs per game, the Orioles possess the offensive firepower to play with anyone. But without an upgrade to their starting pitching, all of the runs in the world may not be enough to keep them in the race.

General Manager Dan Duquette has a well-earned reputation for being a major player at the trade deadline, and given Baltimore’s needs, there’s little doubt that will remain the case. But with a limited market of starters this year, a farm system that lacks big-name prospects, and a payroll just short of $140 million that is only going to grow after this season, the chances the Orioles land an impact player don’t seem too good.

Let’s take a look at the team’s situation and who might be making the move to Camden Yards by July 31st.

Next: Decisions, decisions.

The Contract Situation

The Orioles have been very active in recent years in giving out big contracts to their core players, with Jones, Davis, and J.J. Hardy chief among them. The additions of Jimenez, reliever Darren O’Day, and starter Yovani Gallardo through free agency also required a good amount of cash. Those six are the major contracts the club has on its books beyond 2016, which means some big decisions are on the horizon for Duquette.

The biggest of all will be Machado, who many reports say could command upwards of $400 million on an extension. He’s among the best players in all of Major League Baseball and only 23 years old. While he still has two arbitration years remaining and can’t become a free agent until 2019, Baltimore will make it a priority to get him locked far before that.

Britton likewise is at the end of his contract and has two arbitration years remaining, while Tillman has only one such year remaining. Both are 28 and smack in the middle of their primes, so it makes sense to think that extensions are on their way.

Other decisions will have to be made with Mark Trumbo, who is having a resurgent all-star caliber season, and Matt Wieters, both of whom will be free agents at the end of the year. Both players are 30, and should command good money on the open market.

With the Orioles in contention, no moves that deplete talent from the big league club are going to be made. While players like Trumbo, Wieters, and Pedro Alvarez could draw interest from other teams as half-season rentals, it is much more likely that they will remain with the team through the end of the season. Any trades Duquette manages to make will have to involve the farm system.

Next: Down on the farm.

Prospects Not For Sale

Baltimore routinely ranks among the five or so worst farm systems in baseball, and while the cupboard isn’t totally bare, there is also not a lot for the club to work with when it comes to dealing for a starting pitcher.

Among the organization’s top thirty minor leaguers at MLB Pipeline, a few are likely off the table. This includes top prospect Hunter Harvey, third-ranked Chance Cisco, sixth-ranked Ryan Mountcastle, and No. 7 Chris Lee.

Harvey, a right-handed pitcher and the son of former big league closer Bryan Harvey, was the Orioles’ first round pick in the 2013 MLB draft. His trade value would be essentially zero even if he were available, though, as he hasn’t pitched in an affiliated game since July 2014 thanks to a string of injuries that have included elbow soreness, a fractured leg, and, most recently, sports hernia surgery.

Cisco is a catcher, and with Wieters heading to free agency, is not someone the organization can afford to deal, while Mountcastle is a 19-year old shortstop with projectable power who is currently in A-ball and does not project to be big league ready until at least 2019.

Lee is the top left-handed pitching prospect in the organization, currently playing at Double-A Bowie in the Eastern League, and projects as a starter, though he could also be used as a matchup lefty out of the bullpen.

Next: So who could be available?

Jeremy Hellickson

The rumor mill around baseball says that Sonny Gray of the Oakland Athletics and Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves are unlikely to get moved at the deadline, and even if they were, it’s unlikely Baltimore has the trade assets to acquire either one. That leaves the team looking for more of a back of the rotation type of guy, and Hellickson would fit the bill.

The 29-year old righty’s contract is up at the end of the season, and it is unlikely that he fits into Philadelphia’s long-term plans in the rotation given the number of promising young arms in the organization.

Hellickson has had a very up-and-down season for the Phillies in 2016, going 4-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 starts covering 80.2 innings. Command has been an issue, as he’s thrown more than six innings only four times and, as has been the case throughout his career, has been susceptible to giving up the longball, yielding 15 home runs already.

The team has lost Hellickson’s last five starts dating back to May 24th, and in June he has been a wreck. In three starts this month covering 21 innings, he has given up 14 runs, all earned, on 21 hits, good for an 0-2 record and 7.41 ERA.

Still, Hellickson has shown in the past that he can compete, eat up innings, and give his team a chance to win, and if he can regain that form, he could be the best starter option available at the deadline. The Orioles wouldn’t likely have to give up a king’s ransom to get him, and he would at least be an upgrade over Jimenez.

Next: Call the Brew Crew.

Matt Garza

Garza is also not a front of the rotation starter, but for a contender looking bolster the back end of starting corps like the Orioles, he could make a lot of sense. The 32-year old right-hander just came back from the disabled list, and threw four innings in his first start, yielding one run on eight hits to the San Francisco Giants.

He is no longer the kind of pitcher who will flirt with a 200-strikeout season, but Garza has proven to be slightly better than replacement level throughout his career, and in the previous two seasons in Milwaukee was a reliable arm every fifth day. His 2015 numbers of 6-14 with a 5.63 earned run average and full season career worsts in strikeout-to-walk ratio, WHIP, FIP, and hits per nine innings may scare teams off, though.

Next: Is Manny Machado a $400 Million Player?

Garza would also not be a half-season rental, as he is signed through 2017 at $12.5 million a season and has a vesting option of $13 million in 2018. If he doesn’t meet that vesting option, though, it becomes a $5 million team option. Were he to return to his 2014 form, when he went 8-8 with a 3.64 ERA and was worth 1.4 bWAR, those salary figures could turn out to be quite the bargain.