Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals Renew Acquaintances

Will Cubs go with a right-handed heavy lineup against Garcia?

Will the Cubs sit multiple regulars in the opening tilt of this crucial series to counter the Cardinals sending lefty Jaime Garcia to the mound? In the early going this season Cubs manager Joe Maddon, not one to worry about justifying his moves to the media–or anyone else for that matter–has shown a willingness to sit left handed hitting regulars Jason Heyward, Miguel Montero, and even Anthony Rizzo, as well as switch hitting Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler, when the match-ups and data seem to dictate such.

However, Garcia doesn’t seem to fit the profile of the sort of pitcher the Cubs skipper has sought to help his lefty sluggers avoid. Thus far this season, lefties are hitting a robust .288/.303/.400 off Garcia, while righties have produced a .249/.327/.357 slash line. To those who might be tempted to see such as the results of a small sample size, Garcia’s career numbers further reflect this unexpected trend. Lefties have hit .271/.320/.379 over his career, while righties have hit a more pedestrian .249/.307/.365.

Nonetheless, with Dexter Fowler now day-to-day after suffering a hamstring injury Saturday night against Pittsburgh, Javier Baez heating up over the past week, and top prospects Albert Almora Jr. and Willson Contreras (both right handed) both in need of a proving ground as the Cubs evaluate their readiness for a deep playoff push and postseason, don’t be surprised if the Cubs run out a somewhat more right handed heavy lineup than we’re accustomed to seeing, not just Monday night, but all throughout this series.

Next: Cardinals hoping the comeback continues

Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha look to continue on the comeback trail

Last season, especially in the first half, the Cardinals pitching staff carried them to a dominant start and eventual 100 win, NL Central title holding season. This season the results have been a bit more mixed. While a season ending injury in the spring to Lance Lynn, and the loss of John Lackey to the Cubs had something to do with the drop-off, the brunt of the burden falls most squarely on two men’s shoulders: Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.

The return of Adam Wainwright has not been as complete or rapid as some in St. Louis may have envisioned. After appearing to be his usual self while appearing out of the bullpen last postseason, the Cardinals brass figured their big righty would be ready to reassume the role of staff ace. His 4.78 ERA, and even his 3.84 FIP, through the first 14 starts has been less than inspiring. However, his June has been reminiscent of vintage Wainwright, most especially his seven shutout innings against Houston in his last outing.

Meanwhile, Michael Wacha’s roller coaster ride has continued to inflict a nauseating impact on Cardinals fans. The 2013 breakout postseason star has since experienced an up and down early chapter in his career, although his electric stuff and enormous potential has never fully waned. Last season, he put up All-Star caliber results in the first half, followed by an exponential decline later in the year. After showing signs of redemption in August, he blew up in September/October, delivering a bloated 7.88 ERA, with an astronomically high 6.75 BB/9, that nearly outpaced his K/9 average.

He carried over his putrid end to 2015 into the new season, but as of late he’s seemingly regained some of his better form. He’s been solid in June, and is coming off his best performance to date; a 72/3 6 hit, 1 run, 7 strikeout performance against the Rangers. Unfortunately for him he ran into Cole Hamels who out-dueled him in a 1-0 low scoring affair. The small margin for error was likely good training for his next start as he’ll be going up against Jake Arrieta. Speaking of Arrieta….

Next: The Cubs ace

Jake Arrieta is looking for revenge

There haven’t been many blemishes on Jake Arrieta’s stellar 2016 campaign. It has, on the whole, been Cy Young worthy thus far. Quite frankly, it’s hard to think of even a single start one could reasonably classify as a bad outing. Sure, in his second start of the season in Arizona he gave up two long balls, but he also hit one and went for seven gritty innings of three run ball in a victory. There was the Sunday afternoon against the Nats when he only lasted five innings and surrendered three runs, but there was a lot of soft contact and cheap hits, with the Cubs later winning on a Javy Baez walk-off.

Maybe the more results-driven amongst our readership would point to either of the two Arrieta starts the Cubs have actually lost (they won 23 in a row dating back to last season, and are now at 25 of the last 27), but the first was a no decision for Jake, following 7 shutout innings against the Dodgers. The first loss credited to him five days later came against Arizona, but he may well have had his best stuff of the year, striking out 12 of the 15 batters he retired over five innings of work in which he surrendered three runs.

The one start everyone, including Arrieta himself, would most likely point to is his May 25th outing in St. Louis. He never got going that day, surrendering four runs in five innings after the Cubs spotted him a big early lead. Summarizing his feelings in a postgame interview Arrieta said, “I picked a good day to be (poopy).”

Manure is evidently a relative term for the reigning Cy Young recipient, but it was probably the one performance of his season thus far that could truly be labeled as subpar. Look for focused, revenge-minded, angry Jake Arrieta to take the hill for Wednesday’s series finale. I’m not known for being the most distinguished in the predictions department, but it’s probably not going to go well for St. Louis.

Next: A reunion of former teammates

Jason Heyward and John Lackey face old teammates in their new abode for the first time in ‘16

The Cardinals took Jason Heyward’s rejection hard. Really, really hard. I can’t say I blame them. After all, they traded away a front of the rotation arm to acquire him, and were fully expecting him to be a core piece of their future, as their current core continues to venture further and further beyond the wrong side of 30. The fan base in St. Louis welcomed Heyward back to town in a rather inhospitable manner.

The Cubs corner outfielder may not have been particularly perturbed by all the external noise surrounding his return, but in combination with the way in which he’s thus far failed to live up to the expectations commonly bestowed upon a player in his early prime who signed a $184 million megadeal in the offseason, it had to at least somewhat weigh on him. In five games in St. Louis this season, Heyward went a combined 2-21 with a pair RBI’s and three walks, although he did flash a little leather out in the field.

On the whole, I’m sure he’s looking forward to the opportunity to have a more positive impact this go around. As of late he’s been finally finding more of his stroke, and he’s traditionally been a guy who rises to the occasion as the season grows older and the games take on greater magnitude, so it’s not the wildest stretch to suggest Heyward might have something significant to say about the outcome of this meeting.

As for Lackey, the last time a Cubs-Cardinals game took place at Wrigley Field this was what happened to him. This time the fans, and Javy Baez, are on his side. Lackey has been all business this season, attacking the strike zone more often than any other pitcher on the Cubs staff, especially early in the count. His results against his most recent former employer have been excellent, as he’s surrendered just three runs over a combined fourteen innings of work in his two starts in St. Louis.

Next: Who is playing center?

The Cardinals center field job is up for grabs

While the Cardinals are well defined by their position player depth, one glaring hole has begun to define itself. That hole is in center field, where Randal Grichuk has failed to secure a job that was his to lose.

Now the team is searching for options, recalling recently demoted former everyday second baseman Kolten Wong, as well as year’s late season feel-good story, Tommy Pham. Wong took his athleticism to the outfield during his brief stint at AAA Memphis, and the Cardinals will now see if he can provide enough defensive versatility to make his inconsistent and weak bat worthwhile.

If any of the aforementioned three candidates, or some other yet unforeseen defensive alignment that lands yet another Cardinal in the captain’s seat of the outfield, can have a major impact on this pivotal series manager Mike Matheny may feel compelled to give that man a longer look moving forward.

Otherwise, the Cardinals may find themselves hunting for an option in center during the trade deadline, not just for this season, but potentially as a long term replacement.

Next: The feel of October

Playoff level environment at Wrigley

To be fair, there’s been a party atmosphere following this team all season long. There have been moments in the middle of afternoon weekday games against completely non-competitive teams that have looked and sounded like a crucial late inning moment of an elimination game in the NLCS.

So, to say that the vibe in Wrigley will be better than usual may not be particularly noteworthy. Then again, it may not be hyperbole to predict that Wrigley will get about as loud as it has since the actual playoffs last October. And it got really loud last October.

This fan base is starved for a winner and they finally have it. The fact that their long-time public enemy number one is/was the big brother they had/have to go through in the NL Central and the playoffs before they can ascend to that championship level just makes the energy surrounding this situation all the better.

It would be one thing if the Cubs were having this moment, sitting on the precipice of a potential dynasty, and, say, the Milwaukee Brewers were the team symbolically and tangibly standing in their way. It’s quite another that the obstacle is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs-Nationals series earlier this week may have featured the two best teams, by record, in the NL (and the 1st and 3rd overall), but this is the better series in terms of entertainment value. It means more to both teams, and both groups of fans, regardless of whether the Cardinals fans willing to admit it as easily as the Cubs fans will.

Next: A test for the young Cubs

Throwing the kids in the deep end of the pool

That electric atmosphere will serve as the perfect proving ground for the Cubs’ two elite prospects (Albert Almora Jr. and Willson Contreras) whom have joined the club over the past week. Both will be getting their first taste of a rivalry they figure to be a part of for the next decade or so.

Albert Almora Jr. may now be getting even more time if Dexter Fowler’s hamstring issue lingers into the upcoming week. The Cubs have no reason to push their valuable “you go, we go” leadoff man back before he’s ready. These are the sorts of privileges they’ve earned from their scalding hot start. Even if Fowler is good to go, you’ll probably still see a lot of Almora Jr. He’s looked like he belongs early on, and the Cubs will soon enough have to make a decision on his long-term fit in ’16 when Jorge Soler is ready to return from his own hamstring injury.

As for Contreras, the sooner the Cubs can establish him as an integral part of their formula the better, for in the long term he figures to play an immensely prominent role as the backstop of the future. Beyond that, Miguel Montero has been a resounding disappointment thus far in 2016. He coined the highly marketable slogan “we are good” last year, but this year he’s been anything but.

While everyone’s favorite grandpa, David Ross, has had unleashed some power reserves he presumably stored away back when internet was reached via dial up, having a more consistent bat to plug on for non-Jon Lester pitching days would serve the Cubs well. If Contreras can prove himself capable of handling such an accomplished veteran staff, then that is even better.

If you have any doubts about any anxiety or hesitation the 23 year old kid might be feeling about jumping into such a crazily hyped environment, you should have seen how anxious he was to jump in his first big league game Friday during a blowout of Pittsburgh.

Next: A renewal of the hate?

Can we get some bad blood?

Last year, Joe Maddon said the Cubs, “ we won’t start stuff, but we will end stuff,” in the aftermath of some Cubs-Cards beanball wars. While we certainly don’t want to see any Manny Machado–Yordano Ventura incidents, we should all be looking out for someone to start something.

If a guess has to be made, the smart money will be on the Cards looking to push the emotional envelope, for this series ultimately means more to them right now than the comfortably leading Cubs. This may especially be true if the Cubs jump out to a big lead on Monday, as the Cardinals may look to the mound for a spark to jumpstart their squad.

The Midwestern fans that frequent the stands and neighborhood bars for this rivalry may not be as incendiary as their New England and Mid-Atlantic counterparts, but make no mistake about the negative degree of love lost between these two franchises. The disdain is real, and it will make for some amazing viewing.

Next: James Shields has been historically bad

Given what is at stake between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals, that bad blood may boil to the surface once again. If so, an already entertaining series may well be even more interesting to watch.