Not only has the Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw been the best pitcher in baseball in 2016, he is likely the best player overall.
People often argue that a pitcher cannot be more valuable than a position player because they take the mound every five days instead of playing everyday.
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw defeated that perception in 2014 when he claimed the MVP award in the National League. He posted a 1.77 ERA, a 1.81 FIP, and a 7.7 fWAR in 198 1/3 innings of work.
He was the first pitcher to win the award in the National League since Bob Gibson in 1968.
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Kershaw followed that season up with another strong performance in 2015, posting a 2.13 ERA, a 1.99 FIP, and a 8.6 fWAR in 232 2/3 innings of work. He was of course overshadowed by Bryce Harper having a stronger season, potentially stealing a chance for Kershaw to win back-to-back MVP’s.
However, in 2016, Kershaw seems to be on a mission to not only claim that award back from Harper, but to be seen as the best overall player in the major leagues.
In 14 starts and 108 innings in 2016 Kershaw owns a minuscule 1.58 ERA, a 1.64 FIP. He has been worth a 4.9 fWAR.
That is just in 14 starts. Those are astounding numbers for a pitcher, even in a lower run scoring environment as the one we are currently in.
ZiPS projects Kershaw to make 18 more starts this season. The projection system sees Kershaw posting a 1.93 ERA and a 1.99 FIP in those 127 innings. That’s good for another 4.7 fWAR across the rest of the season.
If Kershaw were to match those marks the rest of the season, he’d post a 9.6 fWAR, with a legitimate chance of cracking 10 wins for the 2016 season.
Mike Trout, arguably the best position player in the major leagues, has posted a 3.8 fWAR for the season. ZiPS projects Trout to post a 5.0 fWAR for the rest of the season, culminating a 8.8 fWAR for the 2016 season. That is still nearly a win worse than Kershaw for the season.
Pitchers cannot be more valuable than hitters, right?
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Kershaw is enjoying his successful 2016 mainly by cutting down on his walks. While he has never been pitcher to surrender too many free passes (7.0 career percent), he has almost totally eradicated them this season. Kershaw is walking just 1.8 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season or only seven in his 108 innings of work.
At the same time, Kershaw is striking out a career high of 34.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced, which results in a 32.6 K-BB percent for the season.
The month of May might have been the best Kershaw we have seen this year, or throughout his major league career. In the month of May, Kershaw posted a 0.91 ERA, a 0.90 FIP, and a 3.0 fWAR for the month.
Kershaw struck out 65, walked just two, and allowed just one home run in 49 2/3 May innings. His best start of the month was on May 1st, when he struck out 14 in a 3-hit shutout of rival San Francisco Giants.
For reference, Jose Fernandez owns a 3.0 fWAR for the 2016 season, which ranks fifth in baseball this season. Noah Syndergaard has a 3.6 fWAR for the season, which is second in baseball behind Kershaw.
That’s how dominant Kershaw was in the month of May.
Pedro Martinez is seen by many as the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, but as Neil Weinberg of Fangraphs posted last month, Kershaw is certainly opening up the discussion of whether he belongs in the same breath as Martinez. This is what he concluded in his article.
"But it might also be the case that we can simply compare a player’s overall numbers to the overall run environment and call it a day. If that’s the case, Kershaw is making a compelling argument whose strength varies slightly depending on your metric of choice. At the very least, this method puts peak Kershaw in the vicinity of peak Pedro and forces us to have this conversation. Even if it turns out that peak Kershaw isn’t peak Pedro, the fact that we’re taking the comparison seriously is awfully impressive accomplishment."
Kershaw has been worth 51.9 fWAR in his nine-year career. Since he made his major league debut in 2008, Kershaw has been worth nine more wins than the next closest pitcher, Justin Verlander (42.8).
In fact, over that span, Kershaw has been better than six wins ahead of the closest position players, Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria (45.3).
The argument can certainly be made that Kershaw has been the best player in baseball for a while, not just beginning this season.
Clayton Kershaw is set to take the mound again for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. As he marches towards history, it would be a good idea to tune in and watch one of the greatest players of our era pitch.
And listening to Vin Scully provide commentary is a nice side prize as well.
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Clayton Kershaw is not only the best pitcher in the major leagues, but he is also the best player overall in the majors currently.