MLB: National League May Have a Quiet Trade Deadline

Coming into this MLB season, we figured that the National League would be dominated by a few teams, with the rest either figuring to be rebuilding or just plain uncompetitive. With the trade deadline just over six weeks away, there are some perennial playoff contenders that need to make a big move in the standings soon, or stand pat on August first.

As of this writing, there are three teams that are dominating the National League: The San Francisco Giants, who hold a 6.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, the Washington Nationals, who hold a six game lead over the New York Mets, and of course, the Chicago Cubs, who hold the best record in baseball, as well as an 11.5 game lead in the NL Central.

Last season the Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates dominated the National League, and all three teams made the playoffs, but there was not one dominant team in the NL. This year, the Cubs are on pace to win right around 112 games which would rival the 2001 Seattle Mariners’ 116 wins, and while their bullpen may be a bit of a question mark midway through June (their 3.42 ERA still ranks 8th in MLB), they have the depth in the minor leagues to seemingly make any deal happen to improve their club. Yes, a team on pace to win 112 games could get even better in the next month.

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So with how everything sits at the moment, the Giants, Nationals and Cubs have the best chances at landing postseason spots. Of course it’s still early, and things will likely get a bit closer, but making the playoffs as a wild card team isn’t exactly the best proposition this season. The winner of the play-in game will face Chicago, and will have likely won somewhere between 25-30 fewer games than the Cubs in the regular season. They will have used their best pitcher to make it to the NLDS, meaning they are at an added disadvantage against what could prove to be a historic Cubs team.

Right now both the Mets (36-31) and Miami Marlins (36-32) hold the wild card spots with the Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Pirates, Rockies and Brewers all within five games of Miami.

The Brewers aren’t going to make a big addition, and could actually turn into sellers at the deadline, and it’s unlikely that the Rockies sell off some of their crop of young talent for a potential date with the Cubs, when they are still a year or two away from really competing.

Those are also the two teams that could make the case that just getting a wild card berth could be worth it to show their fans that they are on the rise. The Marlins could have a similar case, but don’t have one of the deepest farm systems, so parting with talent on a whim doesn’t sound like a great idea. Of the remaining teams, the Mets are the most likely to make a move, after making the World Series last year on the backs of their pitching, but their offense has struggled this season, per usual.

I could see the Mets certainly going after a Danny Valencia-type player, but nothing near a blockbuster addition like they did with Yoenis Cespedes last season. Valencia could even be enough for the Mets to challenge the Nats in the NL East.

Next: Ranking the Rebuilding Teams

Basically I just don’t see a team selling off any important pieces for their future (like the Mets and Royals did with Michael Fulmer and Sean Manaea last year) in the National League in order to chase a wild card berth. The Dodgers have players on rehab assignments in Hyun-jin Ryu, Yasiel Puig and Brandon McCarthy that could give them a boost, and the Cardinals have a potential ace in waiting in Alexander Reyes down in Triple-A Memphis that could play a role for them down the stretch, but if there was ever a year to rely on some of the talent that you have in the minors, this would be the year.

That is, unless a team can make a game-changing acquisition that is more than just a rental. Say, a Sonny Gray, or for a couple of teams, Andrew Miller. Then, it may be worth it.

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