San Diego Padres Trade Deadline Preview
The San Diego Padres will be selling anything and everything as the trade deadline approaches if the opportunities arise.
On June 4, when the San Diego Padres sent pitcher James Shields to the Chicago White Sox for two minor league prospects, it was a not-so-subtle way of admitting that last offseason’s spending spree had failed.
General Manager A.J. Preller added Shields; outfielders Wil Myers, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton; pitcher Craig Kimbrel and several other pieces prior to the 2015 season. The flurry of moves raised a lot of eyebrows and added intrigue to the upcoming season. Would the new outfield play any defense? Would Shields have the same leadership influence he did in Kansas City? What was the offensive potential of a lineup constructed with previously disparate parts?
After showing early promise with a 10-5 record through April 21, the experiment quickly unraveled and the Padres finished fourth in the National League West with a 74-88 record.
The team went into 2016 with many of the same pieces as last season, but this time there was little optimism that the team was going to contend in the NL West. Not when the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants bolstered their starting rotations and the Los Angeles Dodgers had made the playoffs each of the past three seasons.
Upton and Kimbrel, however, were gone, and this season the Padres have been as hapless as projected. They are last in the NL West with a 28-42 record and entering Friday were second to last in on-base percentage (.293), 26th in slugging (.386), 23rd in earned run average (4.54) and 21st in Fielding Independent Pitching (4.30).
With the current group of players providing little hope for the future, the Padres are clearly in sell mode. So what do they need?
Next: What the Padres need
The best prospect the Padres have had in their system in a while currently plays for the Syracuse Chiefs. Yes, that is the Triple A affiliate of the Wahington Nationals, but shortstop Trea Turner was drafted by the Padres. He was traded to the Nationals as part of a three-team deal that was the harshest of several raids on the Padres’ farm system.
In addition to Turner playing for another franchise, Matt Wisler, Casey Kelly and minor leaguer Max Fried are now pitching for the Atlanta Braves and Rymer Liriano was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. Braves rookie outfielder Mallex Smith was also part of the same trade as Fried.
As a result, the Padres need prospects, and not just any prospects: They need the type of prospects they got for sending Kimbrel to the Boston Red Sox. In that trade, the Padres received shortstop Javier Guerra and outfielder Manuel Margot, both of whom are now the team’s top two prospects according to MLB.com.
Entering Sunday, Margot was slashing .295/.351/.422 as a 21-year old in Triple A. He and fellow Triple A masher Hunter Renfroe (.321/.337/.591 with 15 home runs) give the Padres’ outfield a bright future.
Guerra has struggled this season, slashing .203/.271/.323, but it’s his glove that will carry him to the majors. And considering it’s been a long time since the Padres had an above-average shortstop, the team will deal with some offensive struggles.
Next: An urgent trade
The hardest player to move will be Kemp. While he is slugging at a decent clip (.480 with 15 home runs entering Friday), the lowest on-base percentage (.269) and walk rate (2.1 percent of plate appearances) of his career make him less desirable for prospective buyers.
In addition to providing slightly below average offensive production, Kemp is a huge drag defensively and comes with a mountain of money owed to him. Kemp is owed $21.75 million this season and each of the next three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Cots Baseball Contracts. The Dodgers will pay $3.5 million of that, but that still leaves the Padres with a heavy burden.
Moving Kemp would lessen the burden, but not by much. In order to unload Shields, the Padres had to send more than $8 million this season to the White Sox and will send them $10 million in each of the next two seasons. The Padres will have to do something similar in order to move Kemp.
That being said, there are potential options. The Giants will be without outfielder Hunter Pence for an extended period of time and may need another bat. Pence was second on the team with a .370 weighted on-base average and the Giants will sorely miss his production. Kemp would add a right-handed power bat to the lineup that is void of one outside Buster Posey.
In case the Padres felt they hadn’t sent enough dead weight to the South Side of Chicago, the White Sox are also in need of a right-handed power bat in their outfield.
Next: Another trade option
The Padres have another potential trade with the division-rival Giants.
Third baseman Yangervis Solarte is having a productive season, slashing .258/.349/.462 entering Friday. Giants third baseman Matt Duffy, on the other hand, is experiencing the sophomore slump this season after contending for the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2015. Duffy, who hit .295/.334/.428 with 12 home runs last season, has dropped to .251/.314/.344 with three home runs entering Friday.
Duffy is playing great defense, saving 7.1 runs according to FanGraphs, but another bat would be good, especially against righties. Solarte, a switch hitter, is a better hitter from the left side of the plate and Duffy is a better hitter against lefties.
Solarte could also fit in with the Houston Astros. Luis Valbuena and Marwin Gonzalez have taken turns providing less than average production at third base this season, so Solarte could be a solution. The Astros gave Colin Moran an opportunity to fill the void, but he struggled in 20 plate appearances. Rather than trade, the Astros may just have to wait until prospect Alex Bregman is ready.
Solarte has added value in the fact that he won’t enter into arbitration until next season and isn’t eligible to become a free agent until after 2019.
Next: Other possibilities
There are other players and the Padres who could provide value for other teams. Melvin Upton Jr. was having a nice bounce-back season, and even though he’s regressed to his below-average self the past few weeks, he could provide defensive value for a team such as the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles have one of the worst outfield defenses in the majors. Deploying Mark Trumbo to patrol large parcels of land doesn’t strike fear into opposing hitters or base runners, but considering he has one of the hottest bats in the game, the Orioles have to make sure he gets at-bats. Adding Upton would allow for a defensive replacement late in games and he could also fill in during rest days for center fielder Adam Jones.
While the Orioles aren’t likely to part with one of their young pitchers, adding a first base prospect such as Trey Mancini or Christian Walker could be a win-win for both teams.
Closer Fernando Rodney could be another trade chip. The trade makes sense on the Padres’ end for the same reason it made sense for the Philadelphia Phillies to trade Ken Giles: It makes no sense to have a good closer if the team isn’t going to win a lot of games.
That being said, the Padres won’t receive as many prospects in return if they trade Rodney. Rodney is a 39-year-old journeyman while Giles is a 25-year-old flamethrower who won’t reach arbitration until age 2018.
Next: Baltimore Orioles Trade Deadline Overview
Additionally, catcher Derek Norris and even Myers could be on the block. Norris would fit well with the White Sox, who have two of the worst pitch-framing catchers in professional baseball.