White Sox: James Shields Goes From Bad to Worse

White Sox pitcher James Shields has been historically bad over his last four starts and his next start is against baseball’s highest-scoring team.

Through his first 10 starts this year, James Shields looked like he was having a bit of a bounce-back season. He had a 3.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Both marks were better than last year’s 3.91 and 1.33. He was no longer the front-of-the-rotation starter he’d once been, but he looked at least a little better than he’d been the year before.

A closer looked showed that, well, maybe he wasn’t actually any better than last year. His strikeout rate was down (from 9.6 K/9 last year to 7.8 K/9 through his first 10 starts this year) and his FIP was 3.92. Still, it looked like he was having an adequate year.

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Then he faced the Seattle Mariners on May 31^st and got blasted for 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings. That was ugly, but not without precedent. In fact, if you look back over James Shields’ career, you find four previous starts in which he gave up 10 runs. Shields has started 332 games in his career, which happens to be a similar number as two contemporary pitchers. One of those, Felix Hernandez, has allowed 10 runs one time in 344 career starts. Justin Verlander, with the same number of career starts as Shields, has never allowed 10 runs in a game. Maybe there’s something about James Shields that when he’s bad, he’s really bad.

Despite that brutal start against the Mariners, Shields was acquired by the Chicago White Sox in a trade with the San Diego Padres on June 4^th. The White Sox were hoping the start against the Mariners was an aberration and that Shields would provide stability and consistency to their rotation. Well, Shields has been consistent—consistently bad. Since that ugly start on the 31^st, Shields has allowed seven, seven, and eight runs in his last three starts. Watching him pitch has been like watching a car wreck. You want to turn away, but you just can’t.

Over his last four starts, Shields has allowed 31 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. He has a 24.60 ERA and 3.97 WHIP over that stretch and his career ERA has gone from 3.72 to 3.83, despite having thrown more than 2,000 innings.

The crazy thing about James Shields is that it’s not that uncommon for him to have really bad games. Shields has given up seven or more runs in at least one start in nine of his 11 big league seasons, which means giving up seven runs in a game is almost a yearly occurrence for Shields. In 2010, he had two such games. In 2011, he did it three times. Overall, he’s now had 17 starts in which he allowed seven or more runs, including his last four consecutive starts.

Prior to this four-game stretch, Shields had usually been able to bounce back from a really bad start. From 2006 to 2015, Shields had 13 games in which he gave up at least seven runs. In the 13 starts following those games, Shields was 6-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Unlike in the past, Shields has not been able to bounce back after each successive ugly start over the last few weeks. Given his diminished stuff, including a fastball that was clocked in the upper 80s on Saturday, Shields may have trouble bouncing back.

Next: National League may have a quiet trade deadline

The White Sox got off to a 24-12 start this year and were five games up in the AL Central. They’ve gone 9-23 since then and have dropped to 4^th place. They acquired Shields looking for another reliable arm behind Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, but instead he’s been human lighter fluid. Even worse, his next start is scheduled for Thursday in Boston against the Red Sox, who currently lead baseball in runs scored. Fasten your seatbelts, baseball fans.