After nearly two months in the bullpen, Clay Buchholz is making his return to the Boston Red Sox’s starting rotation. What can we expect from the right hander?
As most Boston Red Sox fans will tell you, watching Clay Buchholz pitch was not a very enjoyable experience for the first two months of the 2016 season. The righty made 10 starts and had a bloated 6.35 ERA and was taken out of the rotation after his start on May 26 against the Colorado Rockies. In that outing, Buchholz gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings of work. He only struck out two batters and gave up a season-high three home runs.
The Red Sox moved Buchholz to the bullpen and in that role, Buchholz was a bit better. He did have one tough outing on June 1 against Baltimore when he was inserted as the long relief man following a very bad performance by starter Joe Kelly and a not-so-great relief appearance by fellow reliever Tommy Layne. Buchholz gave up three earned runs on three hits in three and third innings and earned the loss in a 13-9 contest. Since then Buchholz hasn’t given up any runs in five innings of work and on June 16, he held Baltimore to two hits in three innings. He also struck out four batters. His 2.89 ERA over that time has helped his season ERA decrease to 5.86.
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So why are the Red Sox placing Buchholz back into the rotation? Truthfully, it’s a matter of necessity. And as people who love cliches always say, desperate times call for desperate measure. Right now, the Red Sox starting rotation is struggling and it is not very deep. After Roenis Elias‘ rough start on Friday night left the Red Sox with no choice, the Sox had to make a move. Manager John Farrell told reporters that Buchholz would be back in the starting rotation. Elias was optioned to Triple A Pawtucket immediately after the game against the Seattle Mariners in which he was tagged for seven earned runs in four innings.
Buchholz didn’t exactly earn his way back into the starting rotation and if he wants to stay there for the remainder of the season there are few things he needs to do.
In order to be successful, Buchholz needs to mimic his 2013 season. That year, the righty played a big part in helping the Red Sox to their eighth World Series championship. He started 16 games, only gave up four home runs, had a 1.74 ERA and he induced ground balls 49 percent of the time—which is also his career average.
This season, his ground ball percentage is hovering around 40 percent which is the lowest it has ever been. The key for Buchholz is his sinker. Batters hit .203 off his sinker in 2013 and slugged .311. This season they’re hitting .279 off the sinker and slugging .459. Buchholz’s sinker and four seam fastball are nearly identical in velocity—93.38 mph on the sinker so far in June and 93.58 on the four seamer—and Buchholz threw more four seamers in April, but he has increased his sinker usage in May and June. Batters are averaging .385 off Buchholz’s four seam fastball in 2016 and slugging an unbelievably robust .923 off it.
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If Buchholz’s sinkers start to sink a little more, and he induces more ground balls, he should be able to continue to decrease the number of four seamers he throws which will help his performance down the line and help him remain in the Red Sox rotation. If not, the Red Sox could be in big trouble.