Atlanta Braves: Should They Trade Julio Teheran?

A lot has been made in recent weeks about the possible trade targets on the Atlanta Braves that could be made available. Julio Teheran and his 2.66 ERA this season seem to be what any contender would like to add, but Ken Rosenthal is reporting he may not be available.

In the linked article above, Braves GM John Coppolella told Rosenthal, “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over,” also adding that he would have to be overwhelmed to make such a deal. Rosenthal goes on to mention that the Braves will be opening their new park in 2017 and they’ll need someone to start Opening Day “and the upcoming class of free-agent starting pitchers is putrid.”

It’s that same free agent class that many have speculated could bring about more trades of frontline starters than we are used to seeing, and outside of Sonny Gray of the Oakland A’s, and a couple of other hot ticket names, there isn’t a lot on that market, either. This could certainly be the absolute best time to trade Teheran away for the Atlanta Braves, if they were inclined to do so.

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But they shouldn’t be.

Therein lies the real question for Atlanta. There are some talented arms that could be ready for the big leagues within the next couple of years like Sean Newcomb (Braves #2, acquired for Andrelton Simmons), but he has struggled with command in his professional career, averaging 4.8 walks per nine over three seasons, 18 year-old left-hander Kolby Allard (#4) who has had back injuries in the past, and Touki Toussaint (#5, acquired from the Diamondbacks) who has also had trouble with the strike zone.

Teheran is a known commodity at this point, and while it appears as though the Braves have depth in the minor leagues, they are widely regarded as having one of the best systems in baseball, there is a reason that teams are willing to trade prospects for the known, and its the fear of the unknown. Right now the Braves are banking on the unknown, but with Teheran signed through 2020 with an average annual value of just $9.325 million per year from 2017 to 2020, he is an affordable top-of-the-rotation guy that the Braves could certainly build around.

According to the good folks over at Tomahawk Take, our Braves site on the network, trading Teheran would require a bigger package than the one that it took to acquire Shelby Miller because Teheran has the better pedigree, he’s locked up to a team-friendly contract, his experience shows that this isn’t just a fluke, and he’s still just 25.

A package for Teheran could easily include some of the names that have been on the off-limits lists from opposing clubs, or at least that is what Atlanta would be going after. Joey Gallo and Jose De Leon are two names commonly mentioned on such lists, but if a team really wants to “wow” the Braves, they should offer a top outfield prospect. Currently, Mallex Smith and Ender Inciarte are the two outfielders that will be around in Atlanta past 2018, while Nick Markakis has been rumored in trade talks as well.

Only three of the Braves top 30 prospects are outfielders, according to MLB Pipeline, and none of those three are in the top twelve. It’s a deep system, so the “low” ranking doesn’t matter as much as it would in another system, but if the Braves are still interested in acquiring talent, they could look for outfield help.

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There are strong cases for an against trading Julio Teheran over the next month, but if I were to choose a side, I’d say keep him. After the dismal season that the Braves have put forth this season, which the fans have endured, it would be nice to have a quality starter on the mound when they open up their new ballpark next year, and beyond that have an extremely affordable top-of-the-rotation arm for the next four plus years.

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