Chicago Cubs: Young Core Is Really Good
The Chicago Cubs have a wealth of young talent that are already making waves at the big league level. These core players could help the franchise build a dynasty Cubs fans have waited over a century to see.
The #2 prospect in the Chicago Cubs system, Willson Contreras made his first major league at bat memorable on Sunday night when he hit an A.J. Schugel changeup into the center field bleachers in the bottom of the sixth inning. The blast cemented just how much young talent has debuted for the franchise in the past two seasons.
When using the above filter, it leaves out All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo and Gold Glove caliber right fielder Jason Heyward who are also both 26 years of age. The north-siders are spoiled with their wealth of young talent and we’re going to highlight the young core that could dominate headlines in the NL Central over the next decade.
Jorge Soler, another player with a high ceiling does not fit into that filter. Despite his early season struggles, his swing was turning around before his unfortunate DL stint. While many feel he may be a trade piece, he could become a dangerous slugger if he continues to refine his approach.
Senior Vice President, Player Development and Amateur Scouting Jason McLeod receives the fewest headlines out of Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein, General Manager Jed Hoyer, and himself – however, his role in putting together this collection of young bats throughout the Cubs system should not go unnoticed. His leadership and scouting direction has directly resulted in the quick turnaround within the system.
Kris Bryant, the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year, has only elevated his play during the 2016 campaign. Going into play on Monday he’s cut down his strike out totals from 30.6 percent to 22.6 percent while his walk totals have only moved from 11.8 percent to 10.1 percent. His OPS of .898 is also higher than last year’s pace. Bryant has been extremely consistent at the plate and continues to advance his approach.
Where Bryant’s value is increased is in his ability to play slightly above average defense at 3B while also performing at league average in LF. If need be, Bryant can also play RF and even 1B. Joe Maddon has shown enough faith in the young slugger to even spot him in CF at times. His versatility in the field and his production at the plate gives Maddon a lot of options when making his lineup.
If he keeps up his current production Bryant will finish the 2016 season with over 35 home runs and 100+ RBIs in what would put him in the conversation for National League MVP. There isn’t a lot of pressure on Bryant due in part to the depth of the quality of the Cubs lineup, where a number of bats could carry the team during any given game.
While Addison Russell‘s bat hasn’t quite heated up to expectations this season, the 22-year-old SS has provided one of the best gloves in the National League at a premium position. While there’s no doubt he has the tools to hit much higher than his .227 average (entering play on Tuesday), his plus glove makes his struggles at the plate (hitting .170 in June) easier to stomach.
There’s little reason to worry over his offensive numbers, as he’s entering his first full season in the big leagues and will continue to make adjustments with his swing and become quicker to the ball, as the youngster has struggled against fastballs this season.
Russell has the luxury of being in a lineup where there isn’t a lot of pressure for him to carry the offense, however at some point his offensive contributions will be needed, and a welcomed addition to an already vaunted Cubs attack. During various points this season he has shown flashes of power which has scouts salivating with the belief he could become a 20-25 homerun bat.
While his metrics show he doesn’t have elite range, however it is still very good and combined with his smooth transition, quick release, good arm, and excellent accuracy it allows him to make the routine as well as the fantastic plays that not all players can make at his position. He’s already been good for 5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) of 6.6.
Russell will be a premium National League SS for years to come and could consistently hit .260 – .270 once he has everything figured out. With the quality of his glove, that offensive production could make Russell a perennial All-Star, especially since he plays in the Chicago market.
If Javier Baez continues to improve his plate discipline, there is no ceiling for the type of impact player he can be. He has unbelievable raw power, tremendous bat speed, the athleticism to get infield hits, and the ability to get bunt hits as well. He has six home runs and eight doubles in only 158 plate appearances this season (entering play on Tuesday) showcasing his functional power.
Baez also has the ability to provide plus defense at 3B, spell Russell at SS, play 2B, give Rizzo a day off at 1B, and has the athleticism to play the outfield if he is ever called upon to do so. He gives the Cubs a weapon that no other team in baseball is fortunate enough to have. If not for Addison Russell, Baez would be the Cubs everyday SS and provide above average defense there.
Long term it’s believe Baez will slot in at 3B where he could eventually have metrics similar to Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, or 2B where his power numbers would provide superior offense in comparison to others around the National League at the position. The possibility also exists that he could continue to play several positions just like Kris Bryant currently does.
Wherever he ends up playing there will probably be Gold Gloves and All-Star games in the future for Baez as the exciting player continues to advance his approach at the plate. He could easily turn into a 30 HR and 100+ RBI player within the Cubs lineup and probably has the highest upside of any player within the system if he puts it altogether.
Next: What About Albert Almora Jr?
While probably having the lowest ceiling of anyone on the list, Albert Almora Jr. could provide over a decade of stability in center field and perhaps compete for a Gold Glove or two. He’s made quite the impression since his call-up after Soler went to the DL with a hamstring strain. Added to his glove, if Almora Jr. can develop into a 10-15 home run a year guy that will add to his value, especially if he also shows gap-to-gap power at this level.
By all reports Almora Jr. is a fantastic clubhouse personality (as is every player mentioned on this list) and could provide a long-term stabilizing factor to the Cubs defense and within the lineup. With Dexter Fowler expected to cash in on his season in free agency, he could become the everyday center fielder as early as next season.
His aggressiveness, consistent hustle, and passion for the game is quickly detected when you watch him play and hear him speak about the game. He has the tools necessary provide long term stability and plus plus defense in Center Field for quite a long time. His range could allow the Cubs to play him shallow to take away bloop base hits while he uses his advanced abilities to track down balls hit over his head.
Almora Jr. will probably develop into “Mr. Steady,” a player doesn’t stay hot or cold for too long. However, he does have some ceiling left, especially if he can improve his walk rate which could turn him into an effective two-hole hitter.
Next: Schwarber Has Potential Left
Schwarber’s name has circulated as a potential trade piece if the Cubs go after New York Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, which seems to be a ridiculous proposition if you look at the history of the moves made by Epstein and Hoyer. Even with his seasoning-ending knee injury, Kyle Schwarber is a top level prospect who doesn’t even have a year within the major leagues.
Some scouts will strongly state that Schwarber should never catch again and be a permanent left fielder. However, that doesn’t seem to be in the Cubs’ plans. They could have Contreras and Schwarber be two of three catchers on the 25-man roster for years to come, which gives the Cubs even greater flexibility.
Schwarber may not have the hit tool to ever project as a .300 hitter, but he has the raw power that could project into 40+ home runs in a given season with enough plate appearances. While it’s unclear how long it will take him to return to form, one should expect Kyle’s bat to return to the level that led to the Cubs promoting him last year.
If he is able to stick at Catcher and catch 2-3 times per week while manning the outfield on other days, it will allow the Cubs to have his production in the lineup – without forcing him to be exposed in Left Field every day of the week. Defense is the only weakness in Schwarber’s game currently and if he can develop behind the plate he could be a stalwart for well over a decade.
Next: Willson Contreras Has Arrived
John Arguello put together a wonderful scouting report on Contreras as did Chris Mitchell, which all speak highly of the the young Cubs catching prospect. His first start came Tuesday night against the St. Louis Cardinals, while working with veteran John Lackey. While he may not be prepared to catch every day, the potential impact of his bat is real.
While new to the position, he’s already showing strides that could eventually see him be average or above average behind the plate. With the tools he has in the batter’s box, that would be a big coup for the already spoiled Chicago Cubs. Many commenting on his strong throwing arm and ability to improve as quickly as he has at a difficult position to learn on the fly.
However, Contreras has his greatest potential with his bat. He already is showing that his success in the minors the past two seasons were indeed promising for his future and not exceptions. He seems to play within himself and have a good feel for what he wants to accomplish during each at bat.
Next: Baseball Spreading in Africa
Geovany Soto and Welington Castillo did not pan out long-term as fans would have expected, but Contreras is more highly touted than either of them. For the foreseeable future, Contreras will be the third catcher learning from veterans Miguel Montero and David Ross, while working with catching coach Mike Borzello.
Contreras will be quite fun to watch.