Ichiro has been one of the best stories of 2016. At 42 years old, Ichiro is hitting .349/.421/.394 and is now just 20 hits away from the 3,000 hit mark. He recently passed Pete Rose in total professional hits, if you count his hits in Japan (and don’t count minor league hits). Unlike with A-Rod, fans everywhere are rooting for Ichiro to get to 3,000. In May, the Miami Marlins handed out Ichiro bobbleheads with a movable hit counter for fans to click every time Ichiro bangs out another hit.
When Ichiro gets his 3,000th hit, he will become the 30th player in MLB history to do so. The other active member of the 3,000 hit club is Alex Rodriguez, and Adrian Beltre should get there sometime next season. Ichiro is also a member of the exclusive 3,000 hit / 500 steal club that currently features old school players Eddie Collins, Honus Wagner and Ty Cobb, along with more recent players Lou Brock, Paul Molitor and the great Rickey Henderson. All of those players started their careers when they were at least four years younger than Ichiro was when he came over to the U.S. from Japan.
Despite his great start to this year, Ichiro is not projected to continue his hot hitting. He currently has a .369 BABIP, which would be his highest mark since 2009. In four of the last five seasons, Ichiro’s BABIP has been .300 or lower. Ichiro is projected to hit .267/.316/.329 going forward, with one hit every 4.1 plate appearances.
Using this projection, Ichiro will need 82 plate appearances to get those 20 hits. Based on his playing time this year, Ichiro would need another 40 games or so to reach the mark. This puts his 3,000 hit sometime in the first week of August, not long after A-Rod hits his 700th home run. If Ichiro continues his hot hitting, he could get his milestone hit before A-Rod.
Projected date to reach 3,000 hits—Friday, August 5
Next: Other Players Nearing Lesser Milestones