Tampa Bay Rays: How the 2011 draft set them back
The 2011 MLB Draft was supposed to be a way for the Tampa Bay Rays to replenish a farm system that graduated a ton of talent to make a contender. Instead, the Rays still haven’t been able to recover.
No team can win without drafting well. The Kansas City Royals core is built around former high draft picks in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. The Chicago Cubs would not be where they are if they didn’t draft guys like Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. The Orioles would look very different if they hadn’t drafted Manny Machado.
The Tampa Bay Rays were built into a contender through a ton of losing and drafting well. They were able to draft players like Carl Crawford, Melvin Upton Jr. (the artist formerly known as B.J.), Evan Longoria and David Price. Combining that with some shrewd trades and cheap bullpen pickups led them to the 2008 AL Pennant and perpetual contender within in the AL East fighting big payroll teams like the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.
The Rays would win the AL East again two years later but would lose in the ALDS.
After that, it was time to pay the piper and Rays do not have the capital to spend big money on free agents.
The Rays would see Crawford first go to their division rival Boston Red Sox. Closer Rafael Soriano would sign with the New York Yankees. They also lost Grant Balfour, Brad Hawpe, Joaquin Benoit, Carlos Pena, Upton, Randy Choate and Chad Qualls in free agency.
Because of this, the Rays would have a whopping 10 picks between picks 24 & 60. With the Rays track record in drafting and developing it would be a draft that could make the team dominant for years to come. Instead, it became something that the team is still reeling from.
Let’s take a look at each pick. Within each pick, we are going to look at who was drafted in between their selections as well. The Rays picks are in bold
Next: The first pick
24. P Taylor Guerrieri
The Tampa Bay Rays first pick was a pick they got for Crawford and they went with starting pitcher Taylor Guerrieri. Guerrieri spurned the University of South Carolina and signed with Rays. He was on the fast track to success, dominating in the low minors and even being selected for the Futures Game.
But then came the arm concerns. Before the Futures Game, he was shut down with elbow discomfort. That discomfort became the dreaded Tommy John surgery and he would miss the rest of 2012 and most of 2013.
In the 2013 off-season, Guerrieri got suspended 50 games for marijuana usage.
Guerrieri has gotten things together a bit and put up some good numbers thereafter. He’s a part of the rotation in AA this year, however, his ERA is up to 4.40 and has seen his strikeout rate drop from 8.5 last year to just 5.3 this year.
Here’s got drafted between this pick and their next pick at 31:
25: Joe Ross
26: Blake Swihart
28: Sean Gilmartin
29. Joe Panik
30. Levi Michael
Next: 31 & 32
31. Of Mikie Mahtook
32. SS Jake Hager
Mahtook was the next pick. He was the pick they got for losing Soriano. Mahtook put up decent minor league numbers, but was never on any top 100 prospect lists. He began to emerge a bit in his minor league career when he posted a .292 average with an .820 OPS in 2014 in AAA.
He got himself on the 40 man roster and made his major league debut last year, posting a .295 average with a .970 OPS. He is now back on the Rays roster as backup outfielder, where he’s hitting just .154.
Hager may still turn out to be something, if he can stay healthy. Hager missed all of 2015 due to multiple knee surgeries. He turned 23 this past March and finds himself in AAA right now. The biggest concern with Hager is that he doesn’t have a ton of pop. He hasn’t posted an OPS over .700 since 2012 when he was a 19 year old in A ball.
33. Kevin Matthews
34. Brian Goodwin
35. Jacob Anderson
36. Henry Owens
37. Zach Cone
Next: 38-43
38. Brandon Martin
39. Larry Greene
40. Jackie Bradley Jr.
41. Tyler Goeddel
42. Jeff Ames
43. Andrew Chafin
44. Michael Fulmer
45. Trevor Story
Those misses here hurt. The Tampa Bay Rays could have had themselves two All-Stars and a rookie who had almost 30 innings of scoreless ball.
Martin is a rough story. He played three years of minor league ball compiling just a .211 average. He was released after putting a halt to his career due to personal issues. Last September, he was arrested for killing his father, his father’s friend and attempted murder of his uncle.
Goeddel was caught in a numbers crunch among Rays outfielders and was left unprotected in the Rule V draft. The Philadelphia Phillies picked him and he has remained on the roster the entire season.
Ames is his first full season of AA ball this year at age 25. He started his career as a starter, but moved to the bullpen after struggling mightily at High-A. Even though he has a 2.73 ERA at AA this year, but is averaging less than a strikeout per inning.
Next: The Top Prospect
46. Joe Musgrave
47. Keenyn Walker
48. Michael Kelly
49. Kyle Crick
50. Travis Harrison
51. Dante Bichette Jr.
52. Blake Snell
53. Dwight Smith
Well, the Rays nailed this pick. The high school lefty is one of the top prospects in the game today and recently joined the Rays rotation most likely on a permanent basis. Snell was within the top 25 of all prospects no matter what list you looked at before this season.
In the minors last year, Snell went 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA and struck out 163 in 134 innings pitched. He was 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA in AAA.
Snell has made two starts at the major league level so far this season and has yet to record a win, despite posting a 2.16 ERA with nine strikeouts in his 8.1 innings of work. However, his 1.680 WHiP is still cause for concern at this point.
Next: The Final three
54. Brett Austin
55. Hudson Boyd
56. Kes Carter
57. Kevin Comer
58. Jace Peterson
59. Grayson Garvin
60. James Harris
Only one major leaguer in that section, but notable players drafted within the next 30 picks are Josh Bell, Brad Miller, Adam Conley, Daniel Norris, James McCann, Austin Hedges, Nick Ahmed and Andrew Susac.
Carter was released after last season after only being able to reach AA. He hit no better than .250 at any level. He is now playing for the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks in independent ball.
Garvin has not appeared in a game since 2014 due to injury. That season , he was just 1-8 as a starter in AA. If he can recover, he will probably find himself in the bullpen.
Harris is now in the Oakland A’s organization hitting .302 in High-A ball at the age of 22.
Next: Five spots for Jose Reyes
The Rays had a chance to set up their organization for years to come. They would have two more picks within the top 100 that didn’t make the majors as well. Instead, the Rays find themselves in last place in the AL East with two players on the roster out of that class. The 2011 draft was a watershed moment for the Rays. Unfortunately, it’s become their own Waterloo.