MLB All-Star Game: Race for Final AL Outfield Spot
As the MLB All-Star Game approaches, the race for the final AL outfield spot is shaping up to be a close one. We rank the top 10 options.
With a little over a week to go before MLB All-Star voting concludes, the race for the third American League outfield spot remains a hotly contested affair. Mike Trout is clearly entrenched as the top vote-getter, just under 600,000 votes ahead of his nearest competitor. His position is well-earned, as he has vociferously erased any doubt Bryce Harper conjured up last season over whether Trout remains the game’s best player.
Jackie Bradley Jr. appears to have all but locked up a spot of his own, sitting in second place, solidly ahead of the rest of the field by more than a quarter million votes. Bradley Jr. is likewise deserving of the honor, despite his inability to distinguish himself from a handful of others in the pack. The perks of playing for perhaps the league’s most engaged fan base, combined with the notoriety his hit streak brought his way has led to his being situated so comfortably in second.
It is, however, the third spot that will come down to the wire. If voting commenced today Bradley Jr.’s teammate Mookie Betts would get the nod, but the situation is far from settled. Looking at the list of names currently residing in 3rd-15th place, some are clearly more deserving than others, while some are bordering on John Scott levels of absurdity.
The purpose of the All-Star Game has been ambiguous for some time now, and the league appears genuinely confused as to what it would prefer. On one hand, empowering fans with the opportunity to mold the game to their liking is a public relations boon.
On the other hand, allowing such populist sentiments to garner influence over the outcome of a game the league has foolishly attached to inappropriately high stakes is quite dangerous. At what point they begin reaching to a sort of “superdelegate” system designed to override the playful and illogical whims of the masses remains to be seen. For right now, though, let’s evaluate the candidates for this final starting spot.
Next: Undeserving Players in Top 15
Undeserving players in top 15 of voting
#5 Lorenzo Cain: .288/.338/.420; 1.7 WAR (0.2/7.2 Off/Def)
#7 Alex Gordon: .211/.319/.331; 0.1 WAR (-2.9/-0.8 Off/Def)
#8 Paulo Orlando: .353/.380/.460; 0.6 WAR (5.6/-5.6 Off/Def)
#13 Adam Jones: .244/.293/.434; 0.2 WAR (-4.2/-3.1 Off/Def)
#14 Melky Cabrera: .284/.342/.432; 0.7 WAR (1.8/-4.8 Off/Def)
#15 J.D. Martinez: .286/.358/.520; 0.7 WAR (9.1/-12.0 Off/Def)
So, let’s just start with the whole Kansas City thing. The only potentially justifiable reasoning for the Royals’ entire starting outfield to be among the top eight AL vote-getters at the position is the Royals’ fans desire to have their own players have the most say as to which league will get home field in this year’s World Series. I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to their fan base and tell myself that this is the meaning behind their votes.
It still doesn’t really make any sense, because if they really wanted the Royals to have the best chance at hosting a potential Game 7 they’d be smarter to tap some better players to help win that privilege for their league. Gordon was having a horrendously bad year before heading to the DL, while Orlando is essentially a platoon player. Lorenzo Cain has more or less produced like an average center fielder as opposed to the elite level guy he’d been in recent years. This is all just silly.
As for the other three, I can’t really complain too much, for while none of them are having good/healthy years, they really aren’t in contention for a spot on the team. After you get beyond the first level of guys there’s a good twenty or so AL outfielders who are relatively interchangeable.
Next: #10A-B
10 B: Adam Eaton: .277/.359/.401; 2.4 WAR (1.3/11.5 Off/Def) (>#15 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
He’s faded from his early hot start with the bat, but his glove is his calling card, and it’s been in top form all season. His 15 DRS are tops among AL outfielders. Only Kevin Pillar has contributed more total defensive value. Combined with Eaton’s overall decent numbers at the dish he’s produced a 2.4 WAR, good to tie for 5th in WAR for all AL outfielders. The only reason he’s not higher on this list is because I don’t like to reward guys whose games are too one-dimensional.
10 A: Jose Bautista: .230/.360/.455; 0.8 WAR (6.3/-8.0 Off/Def) (#6 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
Part of this is, yes, more about lifetime achievement. At a certain point in your career you earn that benefit of the doubt. Ranking potential All-Stars is a sometimes frustrating and perplexing endeavor due to the small sample size from the start of a season you’re forced to make your determinations from. However, his play in the field has significantly reduced his overall value. He’s no longer even the third best hitter in his own lineup, and he’s currently on the shelf, so for all those reasons the king of the bat flip remains down here.
Next: #9 - #7
9: Kole Calhoun: .286/.363/.452; 1.8 WAR (9.6/-2.3 Off/Def) (>#15 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
Completely ignored by fans, partially due to his playing for a bad team, partially due to his playing on the West Coast, and partially due to his lack of a previous track record, Calhoun has quietly put together another nice year thus far. With an .OPS of .815 and a wRC+ of 127 he’s been the only non-Mike Trout bright spot in the Angels lineup.
8: Carlos Beltran: .283/.316/.567; 1.5 WAR (10.5/-4.9 Off/Def) (#10 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
His on-base skills continue to diminish, but his power sure doesn’t. When you’re on the verge of retirement and in danger of hitting more homers than you’ll have birthday candles you deserve some extra props. He doesn’t play enough defense or get on base enough to produce full All-Star level value, but he’s definitely on the fringes of the top class of AL outfielders. Unlike his fellow aging Yankee teammates he’s double dipping the fountain of youth one more time.
7: Mark Trumbo: .281/.332/.551; 1.4 WAR (12.7/-8.6 Off/Def) (#4 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
Look, I get it, being tied for the major league leads in home runs is a big deal, but it’s not as big of a deal as it used to be. The game, like so much else in our world, is rapidly evolving, and a game exclusively predicated on the mash and bash style just isn’t going to cut it anymore. That being said, when you’re hitting for this much power you’re certainly worthy of being on a list like this. I’m just not so sure how sustainable this pace is, nor am I sure just how much it matters that Trumbo’s play in the field has been so bad that it’s nearly cost him a full game in WAR.
Next: #6 - #5
6. George Springer: .262/.352/.462; 2.0 WAR (8.1/0.2 Off/Def) (>#15 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
Speaking of guys whose games are predicated on the long ball, we arrive at George Springer. The difference, though, between him and a guy like Trumbo is that Springer brings a patient plate approach that yields high on-base skills. His athleticism also enables him to produce replacement level defense in the outfield, although it’s suspected he could be much better if that’s where he wanted to put his focus.
5. Kevin Pillar: .258/.291/.411; 2.4 WAR (-3.5/16.4 Off/Def) (#11 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
I’m a new age fan who appreciates the millennial era appreciation of good glove work, so I’m a big proponent of Pillar. He is, in many ways, the inverse Trumbo. In other ways he’s a rich man’s Adam Eaton. Whatever you view him as, there’s no denying that he’s a platinum level fielder who will always be worth running out there even when the bat is dried up as it has been for him much of this season. Contributing the things he does, in the ways he does, to the sort of winning team he’s on can’t go overlooked in my book.
Next: #4 - #3
4. Leonys Martin: .264/.333/.462; 1.7 WAR (5.7/4.2 Off/Def) (>#15 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
This is by far the one on my list that I know will shock people, or perhaps produce other varieties of dismissive emotions. In my view he is the poor man’s A.J. Pollock, and I believe he has the potential to eventually break out in a similar to fashion to what we saw in Arizona the past few seasons. There are very few guys in this league who can provide you with top-end defensive value while also producing enough contact and power at the plate to have an OPS up near the .800 range. Guys who are good at everything but great at nothing get little love, but they deserve better. Martin is the quintessential example of such a player.
3. Michael Saunders: .309/.385/.596; 2.2 WAR (18.2/-5.6 Off/Def) (#12 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
The breakout star of 2016, Saunders was the only person not named Josh Donaldson helping Toronto score runs in the early months of the season. He’s one of those guys who, just like Donaldson, seems to have finally found a good fit, some good health and may be well on his way to sustained stardom. He’s also the first guy on this list thus far who truly deserves a legit look as the third outfielder.
Next: #2 - #1
2. Mookie Betts: .290/.336/.518; 2.8 WAR (13.9/1.7 Off/Def) (#3 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
His play and his profile exemplifies what the best lineup in baseball is all about. He’s young, balanced, powerful, multidimensional, and all around really, really good. You certainly wouldn’t be doing anyone a disservice by having him as an All-Star starter. There are no guarantees in life, but if he doesn’t make it this year, the odds are he won’t sweat it, because quite a few All-Star starting nods appear to loom in his very bright future.
1. Ian Desmond: .312/.362/.505; 3.1 WAR (14.5/5.2 Off/Def) (#9 IN AL OUTFIELD VOTES)
It really doesn’t make sense how you can be the best player on the best team in the AL and not get voted in as a starter. It doesn’t make any sense how you can be in the top five for both offensive and defensive value (4th and 5th respectively) while no one else is in the top ten of both, and not get voted in as a starter. Maybe some of it has to do with him coming from a less than crazed fan base.
Next: A Look into Ian Desmond's Bounce-Back Season
There’s also the possibility that his position change has meant some careless and rushed voters haven’t looked for his name in the right place, or forgotten about him all together. Or maybe they just haven’t read what I wrote about his resurgence this year. Whatever the case, this is clearly the best guy for the job, and quite frankly he should be running second only to Trout. He’s one of a handful of the top players of any position in the American League, and really all of baseball right now.