MLB Trade Deadline: Top 10 Relief Pitchers on the Market
Contenders in need of bullpen help at the MLB trade deadline will have plenty of options. Here are the top 10 relievers likely to be put on the market.
As the MLB trade deadline looms nearer and nearer on the horizon numerous front offices will be forced to make a determination on their status as buyers or sellers. With far more teams remaining reasonably competitive far deeper into the dog days, and the new playoff format providing playoff accommodations for a full third of baseball, procrastination on this decision will be the norm. This figures to create yet another seller’s market, which will be especially kind to those offering up quality pitching.
Perhaps the asset carrying the greatest potential return is a quality relief pitcher. From a purely analytical standpoint even the most dominant of relievers is considerably less valuable than a modestly good everyday player. For some perspective, in 2015 the top reliever in WAR was Cody Allen (Chapman was second), with a 2.6 WAR. An equivalent position player was Brett Gardner, while the equivalent starting pitcher was Edinson Volquez.
The bounty often procured for sub-elite relievers on rental for less than a third of a season is bound to be of greater long-term value. If the sampling of mid-level prospects you receive ends up collectively contributing more than a half a game of WAR value to your club over the subsequent several years you will have handily won the trade. Then again, “winning” a trade is a relative term, for each club is operating with disparate objectives in mind. Those going all-in now are willing to take a long-term loss for the un-quantifiable prize that is a deep playoff run or World Series ring.
Next: Strengths and Weaknesses
With all this in mind, it is furthermore useful to examine the distinct positions of each buyer on the market. For those teams whose likelihood of playing on into October is already all but assured (the Cubs, Rangers, Nationals, and Giants come to mind), seeking a bullpen upgrade may actually make more sense. For those teams who are presumed to be in for a hard-fought battle for a playoff spot (the Cardinals, Mets, Dodgers, Mariners, and most of the AL East and AL Central come to mind), such an acquisition may prove to be wasteful and fruitless.
An exception could be a situation in which a team’s bullpen is actively costing such a contending team numerous winnable games. In other words, unless your bullpen is hurting you, upgrading it won’t get you in the playoffs, but if you’re well positioned to be there then it may be worth setting yourself up to have the strongest possible chance in the highest leverage situations.
So, for the purposes of this study let’s first examine the relative strength or weakness of each contending team’s bullpen. By generous measure, at this juncture we’ll consider each of the following 17 teams “contenders.”
Astros: 4.1 WAR, 3.11 FIP, 4.59 WPA (+21.65/-17.07), 1.23 pLI, 0.52 Clutch
Royals: 2.8 WAR, 3.45 FIP, 4.33 WPA (+17.20/-12.88), 0.98 pLI, 2.68 Clutch
Dodgers: 2.7 WAR, 3.53 FIP, -0.52 WPA (+16.11/-16.63), 1.06 pLI, -3.41 Clutch
Orioles: 2.5 WAR, 3.87 FIP, 4.36 WPA (+17.92/-13.56), 0.98 pLI, 2.77 Clutch
Red Sox: 2.5 WAR, 3.46 FIP, 1.12 (+15.40/-14.28) 1.01 PLI, -1.23 Clutch
Nationals: 2.1 WAR, 3.38 FIP, 0.47 WPA (+16.01/-15.54), 1.14 pLI, -1.86 Clutch
Tigers: 2.1 WAR, 3.71 FIP, 0.27 WPA (+15.09/-14.82), 0.98 pLI, 0.72 Clutch
Mets: 2.0 WAR, 3.61 FIP, 2.18 WPA (+15.17/-12.99), 1.01 pLI, 1.18 Clutch
Mariners: 1.5 WAR, 3.84 FIP, 0.40 WPA (+17.98/-17.58), 1.12 pLI, -0.39 Clutch
Blue Jays: 1.5 WAR, 4.03 FIP, -1.24 WPA (-15.45/+14.21), 1.09 pLI, -0.73 Clutch
Marlins: 1.1 WAR, 3.89 FIP, 0.16 WPA (+18.78/-18.62), 1.10 pLI, 0.43 Clutch
Cardinals: 1.0 WAR, 3.87 FIP, 0.20 WPA (+12.69/-12.49), 0.89 pLI, 0.14 Clutch
Indians: 0.9 WAR, 3.90 FIP, 1.17 WPA (+14.51/-13.34), 1.00 pLI, 0.33 Clutch
Cubs: 0.8 WAR, 4.03 FIP, 1.93 WPA (+13.34/-11.41), 1.00 pLI, 1.06 Clutch
Rangers: 0.5 WAR, 4.59 FIP, 1.17 WPA (+21.24/-20.07), 1.27 pLI, 1.52 Clutch
Giants: 0.2 WAR, 3.93 FIP, 0.85 WPA (+16.86/-16.01), 1.14 pLI, 0.68 Clutch
Pirates: -0.7 WAR, 4.50 FIP, -0.60 WPA (-18.13/+17.52), 0.98 pLI, 1.14 Clutch
Next: The Usual Suspects
The teams that seem most apt to aggressively pursue bullpen help are the Red Sox, Cubs, Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. The first five are all front-running clubs who figure to be more likely than not to see postseason play. The Red Sox can be deceptive, with their 2.5 bullpen WAR, but their -1.23 Clutch rating reveals that they fade when put in high leverage situations.
The Nationals are an even worse example of this phenomenon with their -1.86 Clutch rating. The Cubs and Giants each have underwhelming pens that have been sparingly used, but which lack the dominance (look at their pedestrian WAR and FIP figures) to play a more prominent role; something that will have to happen in the playoffs.
The Rangers have a feast or famine pen that has hurt their team (-20.07 –WPA) more than any other contender, despite more than canceling out such failings with success in other spots. The latter three clubs (Mariners, Dodgers, and Jays) all have negative Clutch ratings, while the Dodgers and Jays also have negative WPA totals, suggesting their bullpens are even more detrimental to the cause than those found in Boston and Texas.
The remaining contenders are all, for various reasons, less likely to pursue any of the names found on our list. It isn’t completely implausible that a team like St. Louis or Cleveland wouldn’t make a run at a major bullpen arm, but it’s unlikely, given both their position within the playoff chase, the cost of the acquisition, and the current statistical state of their pens.
Others, such as the Astros, Marlins, and Pirates are too far off on the periphery to consider such a move, while the likes of the Royals, Orioles, Mets, and Tigers seem to have solid enough bullpens and/or more pressing needs elsewhere to be considering a move on the caliber of arms on our list.
Next: Explaining the Methodology
Before moving any further, we should clarify the imprecise methodology behind our rankings. In order for a player to be considered for our list he first had to reside with one of the 13 teams currently being labeled “non-competitive.” From there, a number of factors were considered, the most prominent of which were
1.) 2016 performance
2.) Years of club control remaining/age
3.) Historical track record
4.) Handedness
5.) Specialty/versatility
In other words, a theoretical 25 year old left-handed power arm, who was currently dominating the league, had been exposed to and succeeded in high leverage spots, with some closer’s experience and three years of club control remaining would be considered absolutely elite; while a finesse throwing 33 year old righty set to hit free agency at season’s end, with a 4.30 FIP, low K/9 rate, and documented history of performing worst in the biggest situations, who also gets shellacked by lefty batters, would be considered wildly less valuable. All seemingly common sense ideas, but you’d be surprised.
“Performance” is also being evaluated via deeper stats than the traditional surface indicators. Amongst the most important factors considered are those win probability figures. Guys who have thrown in more high leverage spots (reflected in the various LI indicators), succeeded in them (WPA, Clutch factor, etc), and done so by missing more bats (which will be reflected in stats like K/9 and FIP), will be deemed better performers than a guy with a 2.05 ERA whose sabermetrics are significantly less impressive.
Next: Now, for the List
10 Will Smith (Milwaukee Brewers)
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 10.1 IP, 1.74 ERA/3.89 FIP, 6.10 K/9; +0.02 WPA, 1.62 pLI, -0.13 Clutch
Career Stats: 262.1 IP, 3.88 ERA/3.60 FIP, 9.81 K/9; -0.65 WPA, 1.13 pLI, 0.94 Clutch
Age: 26
Handedness: Left
Contract Status: FA 2020
If teams are looking for a lefty they can buy low on Smith may just be that guy. Despite having club control of him through the end of 2019, the Brewers appear to be multiple years away from being ready to compete, by which time Smith could be pushing 30, and inching closer to free agency. His return value now may be more beneficial to them in the long run. On the other hand, the Brewers are unlikely to readily part with a guy still in just his age 27 season who is so stingy against lefties, while more competitive clubs may be weary of whether he’s fully over the freak knee injury he suffered this spring, as well as having doubts about his ability to ever be anything more than a specialist.
Next: Of Course There's a Phillie on the List
9 David Hernandez (Philadelphia Phillies)
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.58 ERA/3.64 FIP, 11.57 K/9; +0.76 WPA, 1.26 pLI, 0.70 Clutch
Career Stats: 447.0 IP, 4.11 ERA/4.30 FIP, 9.18 K/9; -0.53 WPA, 1.26 pLI, -0.86 Clutch
Age: 31
Handedness: Right
Contract Status: FA 2017
Here’s another guy teams looking for a more cost efficient acquisition may look at. Despite the more immediate recent pounding he took, Hernandez has been having a solid year in Philadelphia. A free agent at season’s end, and sitting at 31 years old the demand won’t be huge, but the payoff could be. For teams looking to add an extra piece to an already established group he’s someone to consider. From the Phillies’ perspective he’s nowhere in their plans beyond this season, so they’ll surely see what they can get by dangling his name around.
Next: Wait, the D-Backs Aren't World Series Champs Already?
8 Daniel Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks)
2016 Stats: 28.0 IP, 1.61 ERA/3.62 FIP; +0.89 WPA, 1.64 pLI, -0.20 Clutch
Career Stats: 479.2 IP, 3.64 ERA/3.57 FIP; +4.63 WPA, 1.06 pLI, 1.16 Clutch
Age: 29
Handedness: Right
Contract Status: FA 2017
The Diamondbacks weren’t expecting to be in this situation, but nobody could have predicted the rash of devastating injuries and underwhelming performances they’d be plagued with. Now that they are here, teams looking for a veteran arm to place in a previously shaky set-up spot might want to consider knocking on Arizona’s door. His prior life as a starter may also be intriguing to teams who envision themselves having to string together some long bullpen efforts for their #3-4 guys come playoff time.
Next: Let's Pluck From the A's
7 Fernando Rodriguez (Oakland Athletics)
Mandatory Credit: Kenny Karst-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 35.0 IP, 3.34 ERA/3.09 FIP, 8.49 K/9; +0.74 WPA, 0.83 pLI, 0.23 Clutch
Career Stats: 226.0 IP, 4.22 ERA/3.77 FIP, 9.48 K/9; +0.54 WPA, 1.08 pLI, 0.61 Clutch
Age: 32
Handedness: Right
Contract Status: FA 2018
He’s the first guy on our list who might command a somewhat higher asking price, due to his year and a half of remaining club control. The A’s are almost assured of remaining non-competitive into next season, so selling while their leverage on Rodriquez is highest might make the most sense for them.
Next: The Shooter of Invisible Arrows
6 Fernando Rodney (San Diego Padres)
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 25.1 IP, 0.00 ERA/2.41 FIP, 9.59 K/9; +1.51 WPA, 1.56 pLI, 0.19 Clutch
Career Stats: 725.2 IP, 3.58 ERA/3.72 FIP, 8.83 K/9; +4.14 WPA, 1.75 pLI, 0.12 Clutch
Age: 39
Handedness: Right
Contract Status: FA 2017
You can say whatever you want about him, but when you’re talking about a guy with his experience over the years, combined with the fact he’s currently sporting a perfectly unblemished ERA you better believe there will be a long line of potential suitors. His value is magnified for younger contending teams whose core guys haven’t been through the rigors of the pennant races and playoff runs Rodney’s seen out the sides of his crooked cap.
Next: A Side-Throwing Snake
5 Brad Ziegler (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 30.2 IP, 2.64 ERA/3.09 FIP, 5.87 K/9; +1.63 WPA, 1.97 pLI, 0.55 Clutch
Career Stats: 559.1 IP, 2.48 ERA/3.39 FIP, 5.87 K/9; +14.06 WPA, 1.41 pLI, 1.36 Clutch
Age: 36
Handedness: Right
Contract Status: FA 2017
It’s hard to envision a situation where Arizona doesn’t take calls on him. There’s no logical reason not to shop around your 36 year old closer when your team is clearly not headed where you thought it might be. Teams will be ready to offer the D’Backs some extra pieces for their still bright future to secure Ziegler’s services down the stretch.
Next: Team Control and a Solid Upgrade
4 Sean Doolittle (Oakland Athletics)
Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 27.2 IP, 2.60 ERA/3.34 FIP, 11.39 K/9; -0.22 WPA, 1.29 pLI, -0.12 Clutch
Career Stats: 220.1 IP, 2.98 ERA/2.39 FIP, 10.58 K/9; +4.95 WPA, 1.44 pLI, -0.87 Clutch
Age: 29
Handedness: Left
Contract Status: FA 2019
Now we’re looking at upper echelon guys who could begin to pilfer blue chip prospects. Doolittle is one of the premiere left-handed arms out of the pen in all of baseball. He’s in his age 29 season and would give any club acquiring him a full two and a half seasons before hitting free agency. The A’s realize by the time they are ready to compete Doolittle’s contract and competency may be simultaneously coming to an end, which is why the time to sell is now. Still, they’ll have another shot at grabbing a great package for him this winter, and again at next year’s deadline, so don’t expect them to be anything less than deliberate and demanding in negotiations.
Next: This Guy Throws 100
3 Aroldis Chapman (New York Yankees)
Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA/2.24 FIP, 13.24 K/9; +0.49 WPA, 1.39 pLI, 0.10 Clutch
Career Stats: 336.0 IP, 2.22 ERA/1.98 FIP, 15.29 K/9; +11.45 WPA, 1.69 pLI, -0.35 Clutch
Age: 28
Handedness: Left
Contract Status: FA 2017
Look, there’s no denying that he’s basically the best reliever in baseball. We may never again see a guy who can throw as hard as he can, or miss as many bats. The dude is just plain filthy. However, there are well-documented extenuating circumstances that ought to serve to temper your enthusiasm over the prospect of your favorite team acquiring him. This is still a business, though, and the only real reason the price for him won’t be even more astronomical than it likely already is will be his pending free agency. The Yankees are dealing from a position of immense strength as they currently possess a full trio of bullpen arms whom you could reasonably argue are all in the top 5-6 of all of baseball.
Next: Who Needs a Closer?
2 Arodys Vizcaino (Atlanta Braves)
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 29.1 IP, 2.15 ERA/2.54 FIP, 12.58 K/9; -3.15 WPA, 1.61 pLI, -0.17 Clutch
Career Stats: 85.1 IP, 2.64 ERA/2.92 FIP, 10.44 K/9; +1.50 WPA, 1.42 pLI, 0.02 Clutch
Age: 25
Handedness: Right
Contract Status: FA 2020
Depending on just how much of a rebuild the Braves are prepared to endure, one of the best emerging fireballing closers in the game may become available, for a very steep price, in the coming weeks. At just 25 he’s had his fair share of arm troubles, (which he seems to have gotten over with a little illegal help), but when he’s healthy there are few guys you’d rather have in the eighth or ninth inning. The insider rumors suggest the Braves are open to shopping Julio Tehran, so the same may be true of Vizcaino. Given his age, productivity, and his three and a half years of remaining club control, he could easily command a pair of top prospects, or a package that includes multiple big league pieces.
Next: The Best Arm Potentially on the Market is...
1 Andrew Miller (New York Yankees)
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2016 Stats: 29.2 IP, 1.21 ERA/1.23 FIP, 16.69 K/9; +2.01 WPA, 1.73 pLI, 0.16 Clutch
Career Stats: 584 IP, 4.42 ERA/3.77 FIP, 9.94 K/9; +2.49 WPA, 1.14 pLI, 2.59 Clutch
Age: 31
Handedness: Left
Contract Status: FA 2019
He’s easily the crown jewel of this market. You want a guy who can get out lefties? You want an elite set-up man? You want an elite closer? He can be whatever you need. Few could so easily help Yankee fans forget their grief over the retirement of the Mariano Rivera, and fewer would be such a huge aid to any number of beleaguered bullpens around the league. As a reliever he finished in the top 10 in AL Cy Young voting last season, and he may be having an even better 2016.
Next: 10 Most Disappointing Players of 2016
A veteran who’s been through his share of wars, he’s also under contract through 2018. The Yankees can demand just about whatever they want for him, and given the relative few other elite options that exist multiple teams will be happy to oblige in a high stakes bidding war.