MLB Trade Deadline: Top 10 Relief Pitchers on the Market
By David Dickey
The teams that seem most apt to aggressively pursue bullpen help are the Red Sox, Cubs, Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. The first five are all front-running clubs who figure to be more likely than not to see postseason play. The Red Sox can be deceptive, with their 2.5 bullpen WAR, but their -1.23 Clutch rating reveals that they fade when put in high leverage situations.
The Nationals are an even worse example of this phenomenon with their -1.86 Clutch rating. The Cubs and Giants each have underwhelming pens that have been sparingly used, but which lack the dominance (look at their pedestrian WAR and FIP figures) to play a more prominent role; something that will have to happen in the playoffs.
The Rangers have a feast or famine pen that has hurt their team (-20.07 –WPA) more than any other contender, despite more than canceling out such failings with success in other spots. The latter three clubs (Mariners, Dodgers, and Jays) all have negative Clutch ratings, while the Dodgers and Jays also have negative WPA totals, suggesting their bullpens are even more detrimental to the cause than those found in Boston and Texas.
The remaining contenders are all, for various reasons, less likely to pursue any of the names found on our list. It isn’t completely implausible that a team like St. Louis or Cleveland wouldn’t make a run at a major bullpen arm, but it’s unlikely, given both their position within the playoff chase, the cost of the acquisition, and the current statistical state of their pens.
Others, such as the Astros, Marlins, and Pirates are too far off on the periphery to consider such a move, while the likes of the Royals, Orioles, Mets, and Tigers seem to have solid enough bullpens and/or more pressing needs elsewhere to be considering a move on the caliber of arms on our list.
Next: Explaining the Methodology