Tampa Bay Rays Trade Deadline Overview

The Tampa Bay Rays have gone from a team that contended despite a very limited payroll to the bottom of the American League East. Can they find a way to reverse their fortunes?

There was a time, not too long ago, where the Tampa Bay Rays were among the best in the American League. They had one of the bright managerial minds in baseball in Joe Maddon, a rotation fronted by ace David Price and a solid second starter in James Shields, and an offense built around speed and Evan Longoria. The Rays were a difficult team to face, and if the opponent happened to be the Boston Red Sox, they would put up a literal fight to prove themselves victorious.

Those days have changed. Now, the Rays have gone away from their philosophy built around speed and a strong pitching staff. Perhaps this has been bred of necessity, as the Rays minor league system, which had so formerly been a strength, is essentially barren. Blake Snell was the 12th ranked prospect before the start of the season, but after him, only Brent Honeywell and Willy Adames cracked the Top 100 Prospects list on MLB.com.

Honeywell has looked good thus far in 2016, posting a 1.30 ERA and a 0.840 WHiP in his second stint in Charlotte, and Adames has produced a .279/.372/.488 batting line with eight homers and eight steals. However, is that enough for the future?

The Tampa Bay Rays need to make changes to set themselves up going forward. Can the 2016 trade deadline reverse their slide and give them hope for the coming years?

Next: A change in philosophy

A return to the glory days

As mentioned in the previous slide, the Tampa Bay Rays had been built around their speed and a strong pitching staff. Players like Carl Crawford and Desmond Jennings tormented opposing pitchers on the basepaths, while run producers like Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist brought those runs in. David Price and James Shields fronted a strong rotation, where the Rays seemingly found a new prospect to bring up every year.

Due to financial necessity, the Rays no longer have the same players. Longoria remains as a power threat, but Jennings is an injury plagued shell of himself. Crawford has been a disaster since leaving Tampa Bay, and while the Rays are reportedly interested in bringing him back, there is absolutely no reason to think that he would come close to being the same player he had been.

Accordingly, the Rays offensive philosophy has shifted. No longer content to put the ball in play and use their speed, the Rays went looking for a more powerful lineup. It has worked to an extent, as the Rays rank fourth in the American League with 100 home runs heading into last night’s action. However, they are dead last in the AL with a .238 batting average and rank 12th with a .310 on base percentage.

Those struggles are indicated by their lack of runs. Despite hitting 100 homers, the Rays have scored 280 runs, 13th in the AL. All that power does not matter if there is no one on base when the ball is being launched over the wall, as the Rays have come to find out. Getting a few more players like Logan Forsythe, coupled with having Kevin Kiermaier rebound once he comes off the disabled list, could help.

However, the Rays offense is not the only place that they have struggled this year. The pitching staff also needs help going forward.

Next: The struggles of the pitching staff

Where are the arms?

With pitchers like Price and Shields being traded away, the Rays had hoped that Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and Chris Archer would pick up the mantle and be the next potential stars to front the rotation. They added Drew Smyly in the Price trade last year, and while he has displayed flashes, has been injury prone and inconsistent.

Meanwhile, Cobb has yet to pitch this year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and likely won’t be back to himself until next year at the earliest. Of course, that is if he can come back successfully. Moore has struggled since going under the knife in 2014, with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.449 WHiP since his return last year. Archer, meanwhile, has fought his command all year, posting a career high 3.9 walks per nine innings.

While Blake Snell looks like he could be a solid option in his own right once he remains in the Majors, where is that next wave of young starters? Where are the next top of the rotation type of arms, where they could trade a pitcher like Archer if need be?

The Rays have to hope that either Honeywell or Taylor Guerreri can become that next top of the rotation starter. However, that may be more hope than actuality at this point, as that run of arms may not be there any longer.

Next: The elephant in the room

Evan Longoria’s contract

There is no questioning that Evan Longoria is the best player in the history of the Tampa Bay Rays. While the Rays would sign their young talent to long term, team friendly extensions, Longoria is the one that got the second extension, being signed through 2022 with a team option for 2023. The price for that time frame? Another $105.5 Million at minimum.

Considering that there are another five years, or six if the option is picked up, left, that total amount would seem quite team friendly. While that is less than Longoria may have received as a free agent, he accounts for approximately 20% of the Rays payroll this season. As his salary goes up in the coming years, that percentage may increase.

Retrospect is always 20-20, but would it be fair to consider the second Longoria extension a mistake? It may be if the Rays keep him on the roster into next year, as he would gain his 10-5 rights, making it where he can refuse any trades from Tampa Bay. However, given that team friendly contract, as well as Longoria’s power and solid defense, the Rays may be able to get a solid haul in return.

It would certainly be difficult to trade the face of the franchise, that one player they have kept throughout his entire career. However, the return that the Rays could get may be worth considering that option. After all, they have traded other players due to payroll constraints; would it be a surprise if Longoria was moved for the same reason?

Trading Evan Longoria would be able to replenish a farm system that is not close to what it had been during their run of success. As unlikely as such a move may be, the Rays may well have to consider such an option.

Next: What could they move?

Potential trade chips

Of all the names being circulated at the trade deadline, Jake Odorizzi may be the most interesting as it relates to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Miami Marlins in particular have been linked to the Rays righty, as they look to upgrade their rotation for a potential push for the postseason.

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Odoroizzi is not the type of player that the Rays would theoretically need to move. He is not due for arbitration until next year, and would not be a free agent until after the 2019 season. Yet, with the arms that could be returning to the Rays, Odorizzi may be the odd man out. A solid middle of the rotation starter, he may fetch a solid return from either the Marlins or another team that would have interest in beefing up their pitching staff with a cost controlled arm.

Another potential piece that the Rays could move would be Logan Forsythe. Like Odorizzi, he is not a player they would have to move, as he is signed through next year and has an $8.5 Million team option. Forsythe has been solid at second, producing a .301/.379/.497 batting line with five home runs and eleven doubles in 39 games, having missed time due to injury.

Forsythe is also the type of player that could be appealing for a team not in contention this year. Should a team have a hole at second, and an eye towards contending in 2017, Forsythe could be a perfect fit as a trade option. Having that year of control, and the team option, could make Forsythe a popular target as the end of July comes around.

Next: How the 2011 draft set the Rays back

The Tampa Bay Rays have drifted away from what made them successful during their heyday. However, with a couple of smart moves and the right players coming back, they could look towards contending again in another couple of years.