Cincinnati Reds Trade Deadline Overview
The Cincinnati Reds need to unload their two remaining trade chips so they can amass as much young talent as possible.
From the outset of Spring Training, the baseball world knew the Cincinnati Reds were not going to be a good baseball team. The team was clearly in rebuild mode—some in the industry call it tanking—and the garage sale of veteran players was likely to continue.
Since the middle of last season, the Reds have parted with starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake; closer Aroldis Chapman; and third baseman Todd Frazier, plus a few other less notable pieces. For a team that finished 76-86 in 2014 and 64-98 last season, getting rid of quality veteran players was only going to make things worse.
Indeed they have gotten worse. The Reds bullpen has been historically bad this season, posting a 5.99 earned run average and 5.83 fielding independent pitching entering Wednesday. Furthermore, Reds relievers have allowed 37.7 percent of inherited runners to score–sixth in the majors–and are tied for worst in the league in home run to fly ball rate (17.3%).
The offense hasn’t been any better. Sure, Adam Duvall is providing some nice pop in the lineup, but the Reds are 25th in weighted on-base average (.302). First baseman Joey Votto, while still an above-average hitter, hasn’t been himself and the natural decline of second baseman Brandon Phillips, a shoulder injury to catcher Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton’s slow progress have compounded the struggles.
The Reds are willing to suffer now in order to increase their chances for future success. The trades over the past year have brought the Reds a bevy of prospects on which they can build, and they’re already starting to rely on those prospects: The Reds led the majors with 730 innings pitched by rookies in 2015 and lead the majors again this season with 224 2/3.
As the trade deadline approaches, the Reds will continue to look for opportunities to add to their stable of young talent. (All stats entering Wednesday.)
Next: A replenished farm system
The Reds farm system is much deeper than it was in years past, particularly in pitchers, and the trades mentioned earlier played a big role in that depth.
Sending Cueto to the Royals last season brought back pitchers Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed. Finnegan and Lamb are part of the Reds’ rotation at the moment, and while they’ve had mixed success, both should contribute to the Reds’ pitching staff in the future, whether in the rotation or in the bullpen. Reed made his major league debut Saturday against the Houston Astros and allowed four runs over seven innings.
Flipping Leake to the San Francisco Giants yielded Duvall, who leads the Reds with 20 home runs, and Keury Mella, who has a 3.12 ERA in 12 starts in Class A Advanced. (Mella is the Reds’ seventh-ranked prospect according to Baseball Prospectus.)
Sending Chapman, an elite closer, to the New York Yankees added Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Tony Renda and Caleb Cotham. Davis, a pitcher, is having the best season of the four with a 2.39 ERA through 10 starts at Double A.
The Frazier trade was probably the least helpful. The Reds received Brandon Dixon, Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler in the three-team trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox. Peraza has been a top-100 prospect, but he has lost some of his luster and has a career .514 on-base plus slugging in his major league career.
In any future trades, the Reds will want a prospect prospect package similar to the one they received in the Cueto trade as opposed to the Frazier deal. With that in mind, let’s check out some of their trade options.
Next: Bruce to the AL Central
Right fielder Jay Bruce has been getting trade buzz for the past two seasons. Many thought the Reds would trade at last season’s deadline or this winter, but as it turns out, the Reds may have stumbled into Bruce’s highest trade value.
Bruce’s trade value is in his bat, and more specifically in his power potential. Over the course of a season, Bruce adds 20-25 home runs to any lineup. He has also cut his strikeout rate from 22.3 percent last season to 20.6 percent this season and he is hitting more line drives: Entering Wednesday 23.6 percent of his balls in play were line drives, up from 18.7 percent last season.
Bruce’s bat would fit will into several lineups, most notably those in the American League Central.
The Cleveland Indians have to deal with Michael Brantley in injury-induced limbo, and while Tyler Naquin is proving to be a more than adequate replacement, Bruce’s power would be a welcome addition. The Indians have a deep farm system and could make a trade involving outfield prospects Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier or Mike Papi.
The White Sox’s outfield is tied for 26th in the majors in slugging (.379), so Bruce’s bat in a hitter’s ballpark would be a great fit. The White Sox want to be buyers at the deadline, although they don’t have the farm system depth of the Indians.
The Kansas City Royals could use Bruce to fill the left-handed power void that was created when third baseman Mike Moustakas was lost for the year with a knee injury. Left fielder Alex Gordon is also on the Disabled List for a wrist injury, so Bruce could fill that role as well. The Royals, however, paid a hefty price in prospects to rent Cueto for a few months and may be reluctant to do the same with Bruce.
Next: Bruce heads west
The Reds may be able to send Bruce to the National League West.
The Giants are going to miss right fielder Hunter Pence for a while, and there’s no guarantee he will be 100 percent when he comes back. That being said, there’s no guarantee Bruce will stay healthy either, but with the Giants missing one of their best hitters, Bruce’s bat would add more power to an outfield that is 16th in wOBA (.320) and 22nd in slugging (.394).
The other team that could use Bruce is the Dodgers. They’ve dealt with an overcrowding of outfielders in past seasons, and while it has provided insurance against injuries, it’s not been an ideal situation.
The logjam has been (somewhat) cleared recently. Earlier this month the Dodgers designated Carl Crawford for assignment, adding his salary to the pile of dead money on the team’s books. Yasiel Puig has spent time on the disabled list and Andre Either broke a bone in his shin and doesn’t have a set date he will return.
Of the two teams, the Dodgers have the deeper farm system, suggesting they would be better suited to make a trade. While that may be true, trading for Bruce would add a left-handed bat to a lineup that has several lefties. But considering the Dodgers are trying Howie Kendrick in the outfield, Bruce could be a welcome addition.
The Giants may decide to weather the storm and rely on its pitching staff rather than trade for a bat. They have maintained their lead in the division with Madison Bumgarner, Cueto and Jeff Samardzija giving the Giants one of the best 1-2-3 combos in the game.
Next: Zack Cozart
Shortstop Zack Cozart is the other key trading chip for the Reds. Cozart is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game with 4.1 runs saved, eighth among qualified shortstops.
At 30 years old, Cozart will begin to decline offensively, so the Reds need to capitalize now while his value is highest. His 13.1% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career while his OPS (.838), wOBA (.351) and isolated power (.228) are the highest. He’s hit 11 home runs and should break his career-high of 15, which he hit in his rookie season in 2012.
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Since Cozart has one more year of control after 2016—Bruce is an impending free agent—Cozart would be a nice addition for teams that will need a shortstop next season.
The Royals could be an option because they deploy Alcides Escobar, who is average defensively and a drag offensively, to play shortstop every day. Escobar could be a free agent after this season if the Royals don’t exercise their team option for 2017. Adding Cozart would be an upgrade for the remainder of the 2016 season and fill a hole in 2017.
Next: Rays trade deadline overview
After that, the potential for moves dries up quickly. Mesoraco, who hit 25 home runs in 2014, could’ve been another trade chip if he was healthy. The Reds aren’t going to trade one of their young starters and the bullpen doesn’t have anyone who would make another team’s pen noticeably better.