Boston Red Sox Trade Deadline Preview
While the Boston Red Sox have one of the best lineups in baseball, the back of their rotation has been a problem. As trade season nears, the Sox will need to address their pitching if they hope to run away with the AL East.
After starting the season on a monstrous offensive run, the Boston Red Sox have cooled off in the past few weeks – largely due to the back-end of their starting rotation. While David Price is finally living up to his massive contract, Steven Wright is en route to the All-Star game and Rick Porcello is enjoying a rebound from last season, the fourth and fifth starters have been major question marks.
Eduardo Rodriguez returned nearly a month ago and was hailed as the savior to the rotation, but has yet to assert himself as a mid-to-top of the rotation starter, while Clay Buchholz has been a disaster all season long. While the Sox have tried letting Joe Kelly, Henry Owens and Roenis Elias get cracks at the rotation, none have been able to pitch well enough to earn extended looks.
At 39-32 and two games behind the Baltimore Orioles, the Red Sox will need to make a serious move with the pitching staff if they hope to capitalize on their dominant offense.
At the same time, the left field position has become a question mark with the streaky Chris Young and an injury to Blake Swihart. A trade for a backup outfielder may be in order if Swihart can’t return in due time.
Here’s a preview of moves the Red Sox could make that would improve the team down the stretch.
Next: Back of the Rotation Troubles
Where to Improve
Pitching
While Price was roughed up to start the season, he’s steadily improved since April. The 30-year-old has gone eight innings in his last three starts while giving up only six runs. In the process, he’s lowered his ERA to a semi-respectable 4.24 and FIP to 3.50. Price should only improve as the season goes on and he becomes more at home in Fenway Park.
Wright is in the midst of a breakout season with a 2.01 ERA with a wildly effective knuckleball, but he’s walking 3.39 BB/9 – which could be an issue down the stretch. However, Wright manages to get out of jams consistently and looks to be the clear number two in the Sox rotation after entering the season as an afterthought. While the Price has been Wright in the past month (sorry, but you wouldn’t pass that up either), the rest of the rotation is far from a sure thing.
Just two months ago, Porcello was the best pitcher in the Sox rotation with a 2.76 ERA entering May, but has seen that increase to 3.93 in the weeks since. He’ll likely stay effective as the team’s third starter, while hopefully not reverting back to his 2015 form.
The problems arise with Rodriguez and Buchholz, who have both been inconsistent throughout the season. Rodriguez has a 6.41 ERA with a more concerning 6.35 FIP, but only allowed three runs in six innings in his last start against the White Sox. After posting a 3.85 ERA in 121.2 innings last season, he should improve going forward.
Buchholz, though, was demoted to the bullpen for a time after a disastrous start to the season. In five bullpen appearances, he only allowed three runs while throwing four scoreless outings. Upon his return to the rotation, Buchholz allowed three runs in five innings.
The Sox seem to have moved on from the 31-year-old unless he seriously turns things around, but he’ll most likely now be trade bait in the last year of his contract.
As for the bullpen, the Sox have been solid, but the front office has expressed their desire to add another dominant reliever if they fail to acquire a starter at the deadline.
Next: Platoon Partner in the Outfield
Where to Improve
Backup Outfielder
With Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. patrolling the outfield, the Red Sox have two stars capable of carrying the team offensively and defensively. But in left field, there’s a hole they need to fill.
Entering the season, utility man Brock Holt earned the starting job, but lost it after going down with a concussion. Upon his return, he’ll likely get a lot of reps out there – but is better suited to playing around the field.
That leaves Chris Young as the starting left fielder, after he was originally signed this offseason to platoon with Rusney Castillo, who was recently waived from the 40-man roster. Young has performed admirably in recent weeks, as he’s raised his average to .277 while hitting six homers, but is much better suited playing off the bench.
While Swihart made the transition to left field from catcher, he went to the disabled list with an ankle sprain and is expected to be out until late July or early August.
In his short stint with the team as the everyday left fielder, he proved to be solid in the field and at the plate, and will likely regain the role upon his return.
But ankle injuries can be tricky, and he may miss more time than anticipated. The Sox may want to seek another outfielder in order to give Swihart insurance while allowing Holt to play as the utilityman.
Next: Adding Another Ace
Potential Trade Options: Pitchers
Starters
Earlier this week, it was reported that the Red Sox were targeting aces Gerrit Cole and Jose Fernandez as trade targets this year, but are unwilling to give up budding superstars Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts – and rightfully so. Instead, I took a look at alternative options that would give the Red Sox a viable number two starter capable of pitching effectively in the postseason and down the stretch.
While there’s plenty of starters likely to be on the market this July, San Diego’s Tyson Ross and Oakland’s Sonny Gray look to be the two best options for Boston to consider. Ross, despite an injury that’s kept him out this season, has front-line stuff and is established as one of the better right-handers in the National League.
Gray, on the other hand, was widely regarded as one of the best young starters in the American League entering the season – but has struggled mightily this season. With his cost likely down, the Red Sox can offer up plenty of top prospects to entice the Athletics without giving up any substantial major leaguers.
For full analysis on Ross and Gray and how they’d impact the Red Sox, read more here.
With the Chicago White Sox struggling after a hot start, this may finally be the year that they consider trading Chris Sale. And if they do, the Sox would be foolish not to go after him.
While Sale dominating this season – he has a 2.83 ERA despite getting less strikeouts and groundouts – he’d likely command a big asking price, but the Sox have the pieces to acquire him.
Swihart, for example, seems like the perfect trade candidate after spending much of his time in the minors as a top prospect and thriving in the big leagues. While it’d be upsetting for the team to lose a potential cornerstone at catcher, Boston has the defensively gifted Christian Vazquez behind the plate – and it doesn’t look like he’ll be losing the job anytime soon.
Pairing Swihart with a pitching prospect, say Owens or Brian Johnson, and another mid-level prospect like Marco Hernandez would likely be enough to sway the White Sox into giving up Sale.
Bullpen
It was also reported that the Sox would target high profile relievers in the event they can’t acquire a starter at the deadline – so I named a few bullpen options as well. Colorado’s Jake McGee, Minnesota’s Fernando Abad and Atlanta’s Arodys Vizcaino all look to be prime trade candidates, and wouldn’t force the Sox to give up much impact talent.
They could also target Andrew Miller, but it’d take a massive haul in order to get a reunion with the southpaw.
Next: A Rejuvenated Outfield Rental?
Potential Trade Options: Outfield
With last year’s first round draft pick Andrew Benintendi thriving in the minors, the Sox don’t need to target a long term solution in left field. Swihart, assuming he’s not traded anytime soon, will likely be the starter for at least a few more seasons before the Sox have to make a tough decision, but for now, Young is the guy.
And eventually, Young will regress. Here’s three options the Sox could target to take over the backup outfield job. Note: Other than the first, none of these options are splashy or very fun scenarios.
Jay Bruce
If Boston hopes to keep up their offensive dominance, adding the rejuvenated Jay Bruce may be their best bet. He’s slashing .285/.336/.594 this season with 16 homers, and could play at least average defense in left field.
More importantly, the Sox can get rid of him at season’s end with a $1MM buyout option.
Despite failing to live up to his contract in the past few seasons, Melvin Upton Jr. looks like a different player with the San Diego Padres this season. With some pop and solid defense, Upton could be a great fit in Boston after playing with the Tampa Bay Rays in a different life as B.J. Upton.
The Padres would need to eat most of his contract, but they’d most likely be open to a way to give their prospects a shot at the big leagues.
It doesn’t seem like long ago when Peter Bourjos was the player keeping Mike Trout out of center field, but it’s been three years – and Bourjos is now a backup outfielder with the Philadelphia Phillies. But that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily a bad player.
Next: Indians Hope to Emulate Cavs
Bourjos has plus speed, can play every outfield position and can hit lefties fairly well. It wouldn’t take much to acquire, so the Sox should consider adding the 29-year-old.