Cleveland Indians: Trevor Bauer Has Turned the Corner

Command Performance

At times in the past, Bauer has seemed more concerned with the number on the radar gun than with putting the ball where he wants it. While he has the arm to light it up at 97 miles per hour, sacrificing velocity, even a small amount, for better command seems to be having a positive impact on his ability to make quality pitches.

Using PITCHf/x data from Brooks Baseball, we can see that the average velocity of all of Bauer’s pitches has dropped since the season began. In the case of his four-seamer and curveball, the difference is roughly 0.5 miles per hour, but his changeup is nearly a full mph slower, his sinker 1.5 mph, and his cutter almost a full 2 mph.

This has led to not only less contact by the opposition, but to much different outcomes. Bauer’s contact percentage on strikes stands at 75 percent, in contrast to his career average of 77.7 percent, and he’s getting more ground balls than ever before. His ground ball percentage is at a career-high 48.9 percent, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is at 0.97. He is allowing a career-low 0.6 home runs per nine innings, and opposing hitters are batting just .207 on ground balls against him.

The changes may seem minuscule, but the results speak for themselves. While Bauer’s strikeouts per nine innings of 8.4 and strikeout percentage of 22.8 percent are nearly identical to his career averages, his batting average allowed is 15 points lower (.225 compared to .240 in his career). His 2.9 walks per nine and 7.8 percent walk percentage are also career lows by a significant margin.

The major question with Bauer is whether these statistical improvements are an indication of a new pitch-to-contact approach, allowing him to trade a few strikeouts for fewer walks and more ground ball contact, or just an anomaly. It appears to be the former, as his pitch selection would seem indicate.

Next: Pare it down, Trevor.