Colorado Rockies Trade Deadline Preview: Buy or Sell?

The Colorado Rockies are hovering around .500 but are not far out of the Wild Card race.  What should they do at the trade deadline?

The Colorado Rockies are what you would expect for a team that plays its home games in a great hitting park.  A strong hitting team that can’t pitch too well.  They rank second in the majors in slugging percentage and fourth in runs. Due to playing in hitters haven Coors Field they pay for those great hitting stats by also allowing a ton of runs.  They are 28th in the majors in ERA and 27th in batting average allowed.  Most of that is their 6.19 home ERA (through games of June 22), by far worst in the majors.  Their 3.89 road ERA is 11th in the majors.

Starter Tyler Chatwood is the most extreme example of this dynamic. His home ERA is 5.10 in seven home starts while on the road he has a 1.25 ERA over seven starts. The former Angels second rounder is out with a back issue though he should be back after only a few weeks.   He currently ranks 10th in the National League in Wins Against Replacement (WAR) with 2.9.

The biggest story concerning the Rockies this season so far is their DFA (designation for assignment) of Jose Reyes, who was acquired, along with prospects, from Toronto for one-time Rockies cornerstone Troy Tulowitzki.  The deal made financial sense as Tulowitzki was still owed over $100 million in July of 2015 when the trade was made.  Reyes was still owed $48 million on his deal at the start of the season.  He was suspended 51 games for a domestic violence incident and has not seen the field this season.

Reyes suspension opened the door at shortstop for Trevor Story who blasted six homers in his first four major league games, then a seventh in the sixth game of the season.  No one could keep up that pace, of course, but he has 18 homers through 71 Rockies games.  His .877 OPS is outstanding for a shortstop, but he also leads the majors with 102 strikeouts.  If he can continue to be a solid run producer, the departure of Tulo and Reyes will be an enormous cost savings for the team.

They can use that money to try and lock up budding superstar Nolan Arenado, whose spectacular fielding at third base has now been matched by his fantastic hitting prowess.  Arenado still has two more years of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency.  He is currently sixth in the majors with a 3.9 WAR, tied for the major league lead with 21 homers and tied for second in the majors in RBI with 60 (leading the NL in both categories).  He led the majors with 130 RBI and the National League with 42 homers last season.  Arenado has won Gold Gloves each of his three years in the majors.

Those are not their only great players, but now that you have had your introduction to the Rockies (who are treading water at 34-38 through Thursday, but only 4.5 games out of a wild card spot), let’s talk about what they might want to do at the trade deadline. Should they buy, to try and make a longshot run at the playoffs or try to trade off some of their better veterans to a contending club who is closer to the top?

Next: Veteran Bullpen Help

The Rockies have assembled a veteran bullpen this season to go along with their inexperienced rotation (which will be discussed in a subsequent slide).  What would they have to offer a contender?

Boone Logan is in the last year of a three year 16.5 million dollar deal he signed after the 2014 season. He has not pitched well in his Rockies career (4.54 ERA), but this year he has a 1.89 ERA with one save and 24 strikeouts in 19 innings.  The hard throwing lefty is holding left handed batters to a .383 OPS in 47 plate appearances this season, allowing a total of just five hits.  He comes with a heavy price tag $6.25 million for the rest of this season, but maybe they could get some top flight prospects for him.  He is a free agent after this year and still only 31 years old.

Chad Qualls was a closer for Houston in 2014, notching 19 saves (74 career), so he is a closing option.  He has struggled this season, though with a 4.64 ERA through 21.1 innings.  He is due 3.75 million dollars next season which another team likely would not want to take on since he will turn 38 in August.

Jason Motte was the closer for the 2011 World Series winning St. Louis Cardinals, leading the National League with 42 saves in 2012 but has gone through Tommy John surgery since then.  Motte has eight postseason saves in his career.  He has also missed time this season with a shoulder injury, starting his season on May 25.  He has pitched just 10 innings.  Motte would also be expensive to a trade partner, since he making $5 million this year and next year.

Jake McGee is currently on the disabled list sustaining a knee injury on June 11.  He also missed time with injury last season so he is an unlikely trade candidate.  He has another year of arbitration remaining, earning $4.8 million this season.  He has 15 saves and a 4.98 ERA but nine of his 12 runs were given up in two disastrous appearances.

Who might be attractive to a team looking for a position player from the Rockies?

Next: Position Player Trade Chips

The Rockies should be buyers at the trade deadline. Colorado needs a winning atmosphere to persuade its budding superstars to stay in the organization.

Even though the Rockies have an uphill climb to a playoff spot, they currently have the fifth best record in the National League, they should make some sort of push for a playoff spot. As discussed in previous slides in this post, they have several veteran guys, many of whom have playoff experience.  They have a potent offense that is near the top of the majors in every offensive category.

From a culture standpoint, the Rockies need to establish a winning atmosphere. They have not had a winning season since 2010, or made the playoffs since 2009. Walt Weiss needs to show some progress if he wants to remain manager. Since Weiss became the manager before the 2013 season, he has not had a winning campaign.

If they make the playoffs it might be good incentive for Arenado to stay when he reaches free agency in two years. It is unlikely that Colorado would put together a mind-blowing financial windfall for Arenado when there are teams like the New York Yankees out there who might be eager to acquire an outstanding third baseman in a couple years. He also has Scott Boras as an agent so he is likely gone for big money somewhere else, almost no matter what the team does.

If they want to make a playoff push, the place to start would be to acquire at least a middle of the rotation starter to stabilize their rotation.  If the pitching can improve, there wouldn’t have to be as much reliance on their veteran bullpen.

One of the veteran players mentioned earlier in this piece could be used to acquire a veteran starter.  Where should they be looking?

Next: Acquiring a Starting Pitcher

These are a few guys who could be finding a new address around July 31.  They might not all be on the block necessarily, but their teams might take some prospects in exchange in the right deal

Drew Pomeranz of the San Diego Padres has a 3.00 ERA this season, striking out 96 batters in just 81 innings. He is making only $1.35 million this year and has two years of arbitration left before hitting free agency.

Ivan Nova of the New York Yankees might be on the trading block. The struggling Yankees rarely want to move people, but Nova is heading into free agency after this year. Nova has just a 5.18 ERA this season over 15 games (nine starts). He had just a 3.10 ERA in 2013 and perhaps he can regain that form. The Yankees are not typically sellers at the trade deadline so it is quite possible that Nova will not be available. Even if he is, though, maybe they would package him to another team to avoid paying him next year in free agency.

Jeremy Hellickson is another free agent to be who could be moving at the deadline. He has a 4.41 ERA this season  for the Philadelphia Phillies, over 15 starts. He has notched 81 strikeouts over 87.2 innings so perhaps he would be able to get strikeouts to get out of jams at home that the other starters have been unable to avoid.  He has pitched for the Tampa Bay Rays in the difficult American League East so he might be able to acclimate to the high scoring Denver atmosphere.

Next: Top Ten Greatest Final Seasons

What do you think, should the Rockies buy or sell at the trade deadline?