Detroit Tigers Trade Deadline Preview

4 of 6

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /

Struggling at .500, the Detroit Tigers will be buyers at the trade deadline, although they would be smarter to sell.

The Detroit Tigers are at a crossroads.

After a weekend sweep by the American League Central leading Cleveland Indians, the Tigers sit at 38-38 and seven games out of first. Even in the Wild Card race, Detroit does not control their own destiny.

Starting Sunday June 26 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card, the Tigers are fourth in the chase. With a 12-16 record in the AL Central, they must claw and scratch to pass the defending champion Kansas City Royals to have a shot. If the playoffs are a realistic thought, they must improve on their 2-5 record against the Royals and 0-9 mark against Cleveland.

For most teams, the bag holding the proverbial white towel will be open at this point poised for a toss. As long as owner Mike Illitch runs the team, however, conceding the season this early is not an option. With two AL Championships in the last 11 years and two more trips to the ALCS on the card, Illitch wants that championship.

General Manager Al Avila has tough decisions to make. This team has huge holes on offense and in the starting rotation. Few prospects are Major League ready and are not high enough on the food chain to cash in to a puzzle piece. Yet when Dave Dombrowski suggested last year was lost, he left and Avila grabbed the job. As Dombrowski reaches for the aspirin bottle to deal with his current headaches with the Boston Red Sox, Avila has to be realistic and offer hope at the same time.

Next: Headaches Every Fifth Day

STARTING PITCHING

If Detroit is to overcome the Royals and keep the Chicago White Sox at bay, they need another quality starter.

Jordan Zimmerman and Justin Verlander are an effective one-two punch, yet both have ERA’s close to 4.00. Michael Fulmer—the team’s top prospect—is 7-2 in 11 starts with a 2.40 ERA. From there, the drop off is huge.

Anibal Sanchez cannot keep the ball in the yard. Bounced out of the rotation once, Cleveland greeted his return Saturday with two home runs in the first inning. At 4-8 with an ERA of 6.06, his best days are behind him and every start turns into a night of frustration. Mike Pelfrey’s numbers are better, but not much. With a 1-8 record and ERA of 4.91, he fails going deep into games and taxes a bullpen that is stretched already.

Both pitchers sport a FIP over 5.00. Sanchez weighs in at 5.92. There is no chance Detroit makes it out of the ALDS, or even the Wild Card game, with the back end of the rotation. Zimmerman is 30 and Verlander 32. To expect they can give you seven or eight innings in a playoff game is absurd in 2016.

Whether they take a flyer on a Clay Buchholz or go after a starter from the Atlanta Braves or San Diego Padres, they need something.

Next: Still Getting Miggy With It

OFFENSE

The strong side of the Tigers, Detroit can hit and slug. With a slash line of .270/.330/.438, they are a top three offense. Unless it comes to scoring runs. The 354 tallied as of Sunday ranks sixth in the AL. Their 637 strikeouts are fourth-worst. All well and good to get on base, but strikeouts do not move runners along.

The usual suspects of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are doing their job. Martinez is hitting .316, Cabrera at .296 with 16 home run. Ian Kinsler continues to make Detroit not miss Prince Fielder with his 14 doubles and home runs.

Cameron Maybin—in his second stint with the Tigers—is having a breakout year. Hitting .349 in 35 games, he provides speed and the ability to slash singles. His eight stolen bases tie him with Kinsler for the team lead. Those four players, and Nick Castellanos, are a solid corps and allow the Detroit to produce runs.

Then you have James McCann and Justin Upton. Upton has 95 strikeouts in 71 games and McCann sports a .207/.250/.343 slash line. With J.D. Martinez injured through early August and Jose Iglesias not hitting, Detroit is vulnerable at the bottom of the lineup. They will need extra-base hits to move runners along as Cabrera and Martinez have the speed of a herd of thundering turtles on the base paths.

With a thin bench, the Tigers would love to add another outfielder, which would be a real need if J.D. Martinez is out longer than expected. However, the top priority is the starting pitching. As of now, the Tigers need to make do with what they have unless they grab someone cheap.

Next: A Long Call to the Pen

BULLPEN

No, you cannot have an examination of the Tigers without bringing up their Achilles’ heel. Yet for the moment, Francisco Rodriguez is okay as closer. The trouble is getting games to him to close.

Four Tiger relievers have an Adjusted ERA+ over 100, including Rodriguez. Justin Wilson and Kyle Ryan are effective left-handers, something required for the playoffs, and Alex Wilson pitches around trouble well.

Mark Lowe is another story. In 24 innings, Lowe’s ERA is 10.13. When he is not walking batters, they touch him off for home runs. His eight home runs allowed ties him with Jordan Zimmerman and is two more than Michael Fulmer.

Again, every team needs another arm in the pen, and Detroit is no exception. If reality dictates they need to have the pen get 12-15 outs a night, it will not matter who they trade for as their arms will be shot. Shane Greene can start and relieve, but he has control issues walking 12 in 25.1 innings.

An Andrew Miller would help if the Yankees sell, but with them in the same situation, do not count on him leaving New York.

Next: Keeping Under Budget

CONTRACTS OR DEAD MONEY

Detroit’s payroll is $197.8 million. On the books for next year, the damage is $176.2 million. That includes the $22.1 million due Justin Upton—an annual deal through 2021–$16.8 for Anibal Sanchez and $5.5 million for Mark Lowe.

That is $44.4 million in dead money, unless Upton regains his form. Those contracts are not being dumped. If they move any of those three, Detroit is eating a good chunk of it.

Although Illitch will spend what he feels he needs to, the Tigers are not adding much more payroll at the deadline. Sure they could rent a Jered Weaver or Gio Gonzalez, provided they have anything the Los Angeles Angels or Washington Nationals want, but a move like that is not even a decent bandage for the Tigers problem.

Unless the Toronto Blue Jays stun baseball and move Jose Bautista before the deadline, there are hardly any game changers to rent. Detroit could want Jonathan Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers, but there are bigger needs than catcher, even a decent one.

On paper the Tigers are sellers, not buyers. With little wiggle room financially, the options are limited.

Next: A Murky Future

WHERE DO THEY GO?

This is not a lost season, yet. As the calendar moves forward, more lost weekends such as their three-game skid against Cleveland make it closer.

More from Call to the Pen

Detroit needs at least one more starter and a bullpen swingman. The bench is thin and the team is hurt. If Zimmerman or Verlander get hurt, they are toast.

Early, after a poor start, manager Brad Ausmus was on the hot seat. If the Tigers struggle the first part of July, he will bear the weight of expectations and be fired.

Detroit’s mission is not impossible. Within three games of the playoffs, they figure the White Sox are sunk, the Red Sox pitching flaws are fatal and the Yankees are spinning wheels. If they cannot catch Cleveland, the team they have now can fight until the end. The Tigers will need to pass Kansas City to make the playoffs and hope Seattle cools off.

What will haunt Al Avila’s sleep is how much of the future do they give up to win now, a question that has been plaguing Detroit for a decade.

Home / Detroit Tigers