AL East Still Difficult to Figure Out Going Forward
The Long Shots
Tampa Bay Rays (32-43) (13.0 GB)
The Rays have completely fallen off the map in recent weeks. Having lost 11 in a row and being swept in four games by the first place Orioles, Tampa Bay’s season has clearly been defined. They just do not have the roster to compete with the rest of the teams in the division. Outside of Evan Longoria and Steve Pearce, the Rays do not really have anything more than average players in their lineup. Pieces like Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer and Steven Souza Jr. are quality supporting, but they shouldn’t be forced to be the main threats in any lineup.
The Rays rotation has been slightly disappointing, in particular, 27 year-old lefty Matt Moore has been a real letdown in 2016. Moore was supposed to be the next top of the line rotation starter for the Rays when David Price inevitably left, but he has regressed mightily after an injury-riddled 2015 season. Promising starters such as Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi have not been as good as expected as well. I haven’t even mentioned that Chris Archer, who was thought to be a Cy Young contender coming into the year, has been one of the most disappointing starters in all of baseball, currently sitting at a 4.70 ERA.
The bullpen has been a slight bright spot for the team with the likes of Alex Colome, Matt Andriese and Erasmo Ramirez establishing themselves, but that has not been enough for the Rays to stay relevant.
New York Yankees (37-38) (8.0 GB)
The Yanks are certainly not in as poor position as the Rays currently when looking at the standings. However, in some ways they actually have more questions. It is clear that New York’s core is breaking down and the team’s age is showing. Despite a slight resurgence from CC Sabathia and a great year from Carlos Beltran, former cornerstone pieces like Mark Texiera, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Garnder and Brian McCann are showing their age. This is something that was expected at some point, and even though everything clicked for the Yankees last year, it seems like that year was somewhat of a finale for many of the team’s core players.
In terms of the team’s youth, the Yankees have had a hard time passing the mantle. While promising young pieces Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Rob Refsnyder and Luis Severino sit in the minor leagues or don’t get as much playing time in the majors, the team is still relying on their veterans to stay competitive, which has led to average results.
Now if the Yankees play out their season, they will probably end up close to around .500 because the talent on this team isn’t awful with the back end of their pen being truly dominant. They just wouldn’t have much of a chance to compete with younger, more dynamic teams.
New York should seriously consider trading away someone like Miller or Chapman to help push that youth movement forward instead of just simply being mediocre with a small chance at the postseason. While the Yankees numbers wise are still very much involved in the wild card, this does not seem like a team that will play well through the dog days of summer because of their aging core.
Next: A Hopeful Third
Toronto Blue Jays (41-37) (5.5 GB)
Why they win the AL East:
The reigning AL East champs still have a powerful offense and Roberto Osuna has established himself as one of the the best closers in the American League. However, the team’s starting rotation has been what is separating them in the division.
After losing David Price and replacing him with free agent starter J.A. Happ, Toronto’s rotation was expected to take a major hit, but their rotation has surprised to be quite formidable led by an unlikely CY Young award candidate in 32 year-old Marco Estrada, who owns a 2.70 ERA and has struck out 84 batters in just over 93 innings of work.
Estrada had been a solid middle of the rotation throughout his career, until he semi-broke out with Toronto last year, backing up David Price. He has made an even bigger jump this year, possessing a WHIP of under 1.00 and only allowing around five hits per every nine innings. Behind Estrada, J.A. Happ has been solid for the club, Aaron Sanchez has looked like he has the potential to be a front of the rotation guy and R.A. Dickey has been a capable starter in the number five spot. The main weakness of the starting rotation is Marcus Stroman, who was expected to assume the ace role after starting on opening day.
Lucky for the Jays, even with Stroman’s struggles, their team still has far and away the best rotation in the division, which should fair well for them as the season wears on.
Why they won’t win the AL East
There is a reason that Toronto currently sits in third place behind the Red Sox and Orioles. That mostly has had to do with an inconsistent bullpen, at least in comparison to the other teams in the division, and an offense that while good, is just not as formidable as the two teams that sit ahead of them in the standings.
Outside of Osuna, Drew Storen has been a major bust for the club in the setup role. Jesse Chavez and recently acquired veteran Jason Grilli have held their own, but aren’t shutdown options in the back of the bullpen. Their relief pitching is just so far behind of the teams that they are trying to catch and it will be difficult to make a run if they are losing games late.
You also have to take into account that Aaron Sanchez is on an innings limit, which will take away from the club’s starting rotation as well.
The offense in Toronto can compete with the likes of Baltimore and the Red Sox, but they no longer are the most feared hitting team in the AL East, as they were in 2015.
Outlook
There is certainly potential here for the Blue Jays to make a run at the division crown in the second half because their starting rotation is deeper and better than any in the East. However, that starting pitching will be somewhat wasted if they don’t address their bullpen woes.
Expect for Toronto to make a move for a relief pitcher or two as they did last season, but with less quality prospects to sell, don’t expect their fortunes to drastically shift as much as they did after the trade deadline in 2015.
The Blue Jays will probably sneak into the wild card because their offense can still put up big numbers and their rotation shouldn’t drop off too much in the second half. But possible acquisitions from Baltimore and Boston will make it tough for them to leapfrog both teams in August and September.
Next: The Bounceback Squad
2. Boston Red Sox (41-35) (4.5 GB)
Why they win the AL East:
Boston started off the year scorching hot and was neck and neck with the Baltimore Orioles for the first couple months of the season, but he Sox slowed down considerably when the calendar flipped to June. Even with this recent slide, this shouldn’t be a reason for Red Sox fans to panic because the talent on their roster is just too good to completely let the club fall off.
Not only is this team young, but they are dynamic in the way they approach the game offensively. They have future stars in the league with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Boegarts and Jackie Bradley Jr. in the middle of the lineup. These guys can do it all; they have the capability to hit for power, have speed and can just flat out can hit the baseball anywhere on the field. The team also has hitters that can do damage with the long ball.
Veterans David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez are power hitters, whose swings play perfectly at Fenway Park. Not to mention that Dustin Pedrioa continues to impress even as he gets a little longer in the tooth.
Injuries have taken a bit of a tole on the club’s offensive numbers this past month, but once everyone gets healthy, the Red Sox boast one of the most dangerous lineups in the game that could lead them to an AL East title, even with a shaky starting rotation. Boston also has a deep farm system that they can use to improve their starting pitching enough to jump the O’s in the standings.
Why they won’t win the AL East:
Two words…starting pitching. While yes, they do have the assets to make a move for a quality starter or possibly two, their rotation has problems that even a trade deadline acquisition can’t fix.
Outside of knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has been outstanding so far this year, Boston is struggling to find their form when it comes to their starting pitchers, and this includes their big free agent signee, David Price. Price was just torched by Texas for six runs in just over two innings of work. The couple starts before that blow up, Price looked to be finding himself, but he needs to be more consistent if the Red Sox hope to go anywhere this season.
The Red Sox’s bullpen is good, but not as dominant as the the team who sits in first, the Baltimore Orioles. Boston’s offense as even taken a step back.
As good as they are, the likes of Travis Shaw and Brock Holt, who started off the season on very high note, have regressed to more of the type of hitters that they are, which isn’t a bad thing, but it still makes the Red Sox offense not as good as it was at the beginning of the year.
Ultimately though, the Red Sox will go as far as their rotation will take them. But with the way things have gone for Boston, outside of Steven Wright, the Red Sox offensive talent could be all for not.
Outlook
The Red Sox have the best chance to catch Baltimore because their offense is capable of putting up runs at the same pace and probably in a more consistent fashion. However, for them to take control of this division, they have to do what Toronto did last year and make a trade for a big time starting pitcher. The only problem is that there is no David Price on the market this summer.
Acquiring a solid starting pitcher will help the Red Sox chances in any capacity, but they do have the capability to control this division if they gave up an elite prospect to pry away an elite starting pitcher that is not expected to be dealt like Zack Greinke or Sonny Gray.
If the Red Sox opt to just get a middle of the rotation starter instead, it will certainly put them in better position to win, but they will be in a closer race for the division the rest of the regular season.
Next: The Leader
Baltimore Orioles (45-30) (4.5 games up on Boston, 5.5 on Toronto)
Why they win the AL East:
Nobody expected for the Orioles to sit in first place with a four-game lead in the division at the end of June. In fact, many experts and media members predicted that Baltimore would finish in dead last. It looks like many of those pundits were dead wrong.
Going into this season, the Orioles calling card was their power and explosiveness offensively. Having Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop and adding Pedro Alvarez in spring training gave the club many capable power hitters. However, the O’s have done even better than expected.
Mark Trumbo currently leads in the majors in home runs. Manny Machado is one of the best overall hitters in the game, Chris Davis continues to hit for power, Adam Jones has been scorching hot as of late, Schoop has taken a step and surprise contributions from Hyun-Soo Kim and Joey Rickard have made the Orioles offense one of the most dangerous in baseball.
In addition to their great offense, the O’s bullpen is elite as well. Zach Britton has made his claim as the best closer in baseball as he is a perfect 23/23 in saves with an ERA under 1.00. Brad Brach has been almost as dominant as his ERA sits in the low 1.00’s. Mychal Givens as a formidable back of the bullpen arm and we are not even mentioning Darren O’Day, who is currently on the disabled list with an injury. So when he returns they bullpen could get even better.
While there are still some questions in the Orioles rotation outside of Chris Tillman, the team’s offensive explosiveness and dominant bullpen will allow the team to win close games and help them keep their lead in the AL East.
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Why they won’t win the division:
While Baltimore does have a four-game lead in the division, many still question the staying power of their starting rotation. Throwing out Ubaldo Jimenez every fifth day should not give Orioles fans comfort in their chances to continue to win at the pace that they been this season.
Chris Tillman has been much better than expected, winning ten games so far in 2016. But he has had his inconsistencies throughout his career and if he starts to falter it could be bad news for the team in black and orange.
Kevin Gausman has looked great at times and he has gotten the hook early in games. The potential is still there for him to break out, but you just don’t know what you’re getting with him every start.
The likes of Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright would be fine if they were placed in a rotation with three or four quality starters, but the Orioles just don’t have that. The Baltimore farm system is also not as talented as Boston, so their ability to improve as much as the Sox could threaten their first place position.
Baltimore’s offense, while powerful, also has the capability of going on elongated hitting slumps because they strike out more than you would like a highly productive lineup to strike out. If their batting order starts to slump, while the rotation continues to be inconsistent, things could get ugly quickly in Baltimore.
Outlook:
There is somewhat of a chance that both the lineup and the starting rotation could slump at the wrong time, Baltimore’s offense and bullpen are just too good to let them fall that far back in the standings.
The Red Sox, and to a lesser extent, the Blue Jays will threaten, especially if they make a big move before the August 1 trade deadline. Even if those teams do, the O’s probably will make a mid-level move of their own to stay in the race till the end.
The Orioles probably are more of a regular season team than they are a postseason squad, but they have proven many pundits wrong to this point and should continue to win ball games. Regardless, the O’s will be in the AL East title race all season long, they should also be the favorite to win it if the Red Sox don’t dramatically improve their starting rotation by the time July roles around.
How do you think the AL East will shake out this season? Share your thoughts in the comments below.