Toronto Blue Jays (41-37) (5.5 GB)
Why they win the AL East:
The reigning AL East champs still have a powerful offense and Roberto Osuna has established himself as one of the the best closers in the American League. However, the team’s starting rotation has been what is separating them in the division.
After losing David Price and replacing him with free agent starter J.A. Happ, Toronto’s rotation was expected to take a major hit, but their rotation has surprised to be quite formidable led by an unlikely CY Young award candidate in 32 year-old Marco Estrada, who owns a 2.70 ERA and has struck out 84 batters in just over 93 innings of work.
Estrada had been a solid middle of the rotation throughout his career, until he semi-broke out with Toronto last year, backing up David Price. He has made an even bigger jump this year, possessing a WHIP of under 1.00 and only allowing around five hits per every nine innings. Behind Estrada, J.A. Happ has been solid for the club, Aaron Sanchez has looked like he has the potential to be a front of the rotation guy and R.A. Dickey has been a capable starter in the number five spot. The main weakness of the starting rotation is Marcus Stroman, who was expected to assume the ace role after starting on opening day.
Lucky for the Jays, even with Stroman’s struggles, their team still has far and away the best rotation in the division, which should fair well for them as the season wears on.
Why they won’t win the AL East
There is a reason that Toronto currently sits in third place behind the Red Sox and Orioles. That mostly has had to do with an inconsistent bullpen, at least in comparison to the other teams in the division, and an offense that while good, is just not as formidable as the two teams that sit ahead of them in the standings.
Outside of Osuna, Drew Storen has been a major bust for the club in the setup role. Jesse Chavez and recently acquired veteran Jason Grilli have held their own, but aren’t shutdown options in the back of the bullpen. Their relief pitching is just so far behind of the teams that they are trying to catch and it will be difficult to make a run if they are losing games late.
You also have to take into account that Aaron Sanchez is on an innings limit, which will take away from the club’s starting rotation as well.
The offense in Toronto can compete with the likes of Baltimore and the Red Sox, but they no longer are the most feared hitting team in the AL East, as they were in 2015.
Outlook
There is certainly potential here for the Blue Jays to make a run at the division crown in the second half because their starting rotation is deeper and better than any in the East. However, that starting pitching will be somewhat wasted if they don’t address their bullpen woes.
Expect for Toronto to make a move for a relief pitcher or two as they did last season, but with less quality prospects to sell, don’t expect their fortunes to drastically shift as much as they did after the trade deadline in 2015.
The Blue Jays will probably sneak into the wild card because their offense can still put up big numbers and their rotation shouldn’t drop off too much in the second half. But possible acquisitions from Baltimore and Boston will make it tough for them to leapfrog both teams in August and September.
Next: The Bounceback Squad