Baltimore Orioles (45-30) (4.5 games up on Boston, 5.5 on Toronto)
Why they win the AL East:
Nobody expected for the Orioles to sit in first place with a four-game lead in the division at the end of June. In fact, many experts and media members predicted that Baltimore would finish in dead last. It looks like many of those pundits were dead wrong.
Going into this season, the Orioles calling card was their power and explosiveness offensively. Having Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop and adding Pedro Alvarez in spring training gave the club many capable power hitters. However, the O’s have done even better than expected.
Mark Trumbo currently leads in the majors in home runs. Manny Machado is one of the best overall hitters in the game, Chris Davis continues to hit for power, Adam Jones has been scorching hot as of late, Schoop has taken a step and surprise contributions from Hyun-Soo Kim and Joey Rickard have made the Orioles offense one of the most dangerous in baseball.
In addition to their great offense, the O’s bullpen is elite as well. Zach Britton has made his claim as the best closer in baseball as he is a perfect 23/23 in saves with an ERA under 1.00. Brad Brach has been almost as dominant as his ERA sits in the low 1.00’s. Mychal Givens as a formidable back of the bullpen arm and we are not even mentioning Darren O’Day, who is currently on the disabled list with an injury. So when he returns they bullpen could get even better.
While there are still some questions in the Orioles rotation outside of Chris Tillman, the team’s offensive explosiveness and dominant bullpen will allow the team to win close games and help them keep their lead in the AL East.
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Why they won’t win the division:
While Baltimore does have a four-game lead in the division, many still question the staying power of their starting rotation. Throwing out Ubaldo Jimenez every fifth day should not give Orioles fans comfort in their chances to continue to win at the pace that they been this season.
Chris Tillman has been much better than expected, winning ten games so far in 2016. But he has had his inconsistencies throughout his career and if he starts to falter it could be bad news for the team in black and orange.
Kevin Gausman has looked great at times and he has gotten the hook early in games. The potential is still there for him to break out, but you just don’t know what you’re getting with him every start.
The likes of Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright would be fine if they were placed in a rotation with three or four quality starters, but the Orioles just don’t have that. The Baltimore farm system is also not as talented as Boston, so their ability to improve as much as the Sox could threaten their first place position.
Baltimore’s offense, while powerful, also has the capability of going on elongated hitting slumps because they strike out more than you would like a highly productive lineup to strike out. If their batting order starts to slump, while the rotation continues to be inconsistent, things could get ugly quickly in Baltimore.
Outlook:
There is somewhat of a chance that both the lineup and the starting rotation could slump at the wrong time, Baltimore’s offense and bullpen are just too good to let them fall that far back in the standings.
The Red Sox, and to a lesser extent, the Blue Jays will threaten, especially if they make a big move before the August 1 trade deadline. Even if those teams do, the O’s probably will make a mid-level move of their own to stay in the race till the end.
The Orioles probably are more of a regular season team than they are a postseason squad, but they have proven many pundits wrong to this point and should continue to win ball games. Regardless, the O’s will be in the AL East title race all season long, they should also be the favorite to win it if the Red Sox don’t dramatically improve their starting rotation by the time July roles around.
How do you think the AL East will shake out this season? Share your thoughts in the comments below.