MLB: Six Surging Sluggers Over the Last Month

Aug 19, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto strikes out in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Great American Ball Park. The Royals won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 19, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto strikes out in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Great American Ball Park. The Royals won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /
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1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

When Joey Votto has a down season, he’s still much better than league average as a hitter. His last “down” season was in 2014, when he hit .255/.390/.409, but was limited to 62 games because of injury. His wRC+ that year was 127, meaning he was still 27% better than a league average hitter. Even a bad Joey Votto is still good.

This year, a truly bad Joey Votto showed up at the beginning of the year and stuck around for almost two months. Votto hit .207/.330/.367 through May 29. His wRC+ was a below-average 84. A .255 BABIP was a big part of the problem. Votto has a career BABIP of .355 and the only time he’s ever had a BABIP below .300 was during that “bad” 2014 season. Votto is generally in the .350 to .375 range. He was also striking out more than he ever has, with a 26.6 percent strikeout rate. He was hitting the ball hard (43.7 percent hard hit rate), but too often on the ground. This was not the Joey Votto we were looking for.

The Joey Votto we were looking for showed up about a month ago. Since May 30, Votto has hit .318/.453/.529. His strikeout rate is still a little higher than his career average, but he’s walking close to 19 percent of the time over the last month and the balls are dropping in for a .404 BABIP. He’s no longer hitting the ball on the ground 50% of the time and he’s spraying the ball around the field quite well. His season line isn’t close to what we expected, but he’s on his way.

Next: Brian Dozier