Chicago White Sox Trade Deadline Overview
The White Sox fast start in 2016 has faded quickly, but their GM still says they’re in buyer mode. Should they be? And who should they be pursuing?
On May 9th, the Chicago White Sox pulled out a 10-inning victory over the Texas Rangers to run their record to 23-10 and extend their lead in the American League’s Central division to six games. The Sox were riding high behind the historic start of Chris Sale, solid innings from Jose Quintana, and robust production from Adam Eaton and Todd Frazier, and appeared as though they could be major players at the July 31st trade deadline.
Fast forward six weeks, and a very different picture is painted on the South Side. Entering play on Wednesday, Chicago is 38-39, having lost 29 of its last 44 games, and finds itself 8.5 games back of the scorching-hot Cleveland Indians in the standings.
Sale and Quintana have remained solid, but Carlos Rodon and Miguel Gonzalez have barely performed above replacement level, and the acquisition of James Shields has to this point been an unmitigated disaster. “Big Game James” has allowed 24 earned runs in just 13.2 innings over four starts, good for a 15.80 earned run average, and has walked nearly three more batters than he has struck out per nine innings.
While Frazier is tied for second in the AL with 21 home runs, he’s also struggling to stay above the Mendoza Line. Jose Abreu has also had his issues at the plate, with a .262/.320/.435 slash line that is well below his career averages. Further complicating matters offensively is the loss of Austin Jackson to a torn meniscus and the nearly invisible production the team has gotten from the catcher and designated hitter positions.
Still, general manager Rick Hahn has remained consistent in his comments that the White Sox believe they can win and will be buyers at the deadline.
“We very much believe the talent is there to be in the thick of things come October,” Hahn said to J.J. Stankevitz of CSN Chicago. “Obviously we have to stop squandering opportunities, especially in our division, where we’ve performed poorly over the last few weeks. But we have not, thanks in large part to the quality start, haven’t buried ourselves yet. We need to get it turned around fairly quickly, though, so we can continue saying that and reinforce our notion, our belief in ourselves that this team has the ability to contend.”
As the all-star break draws near, Hahn’s optimism seems to become more and more misplaced. Even if moves are made at the deadline, can this team contend? Or is it more likely that a rebuild needs to take place before Chicago can become a truly viable contender in the Central? Let’s take a look at the options.
Next: Stay the course?
Option #1: Hope for a turnaround
The first option the White Sox have is to stand pat and hope things turn around. A veteran lineup, with the exception of rookie shortstop Tim Anderson, and a pitching staff anchored by one of the best starters in the game should be able to at least stay in the hunt for a wild card spot, right?
Abreu has performed much better after a horrid start to the season, posting an OPS over .900 in the month of June, giving hope that he will be back to terrorizing AL pitching for the remainder of the summer. Anderson has equipped himself well both at the plate and with the glove in his first exposure to the big leagues, Brett Lawrie has been just slightly better than replacement level, which means he’s underperforming relative to his career averages, and Frazier has delivered the middle of the order power despite his abysmal batting average and on-base percentage.
In the outfield, Adam Eaton continues to rank among the top ten position players in all of Major League Baseball in bWAR, and Melky Cabrera is his usual solid self. The Jackson injury hurts despite the fact that he wasn’t exactly lighting up the league, as J.B. Shuck is clearly not the answer. A shifting of Eaton back to center field may be in order.
On the mound, one imagines that Sale will continue to pitch like an ace every fifth day, Quintana will remain solid, Rondon will progress in his development as a big league starter, and Gonzalez can at least be serviceable as a fifth starter. The hope is that Shields can salvage his season. He can’t possibly have become this bad overnight, could he?
David Robertson and Nate Jones have been good at the back end of the bullpen all season, so there’s little reason to think they can’t keep that going. Injuries to Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam have thinned out the depth in the rest of the pen, though, so guys like Zach Duke and Dan Jennings will need to continue to provide consistency in shutting down opponents.
Next: Mortgage the future?
Option #2: Go all in for 2016
The Shields trade and Hahn’s comments perhaps point to this being more the course the White Sox will follow, regardless of whether or not it’s the most prudent one. The team wants to win now, and with a few big moves believes it can.
Despite Eaton and Cabrera’s solid seasons and Abreu’s turnaround, Chicago needs more offensive punch. The Sox have a -9 run differential nearing the midway point in the season, and there isn’t any immediate aid to be found for the lineup, unless you’re counting veteran Justin Morneau, whom the team signed and is waiting to have come off the disabled list shortly after the all-star break.
Thus, a proven, run-producing bat would appear to be a big need for Chicago, and the likes of Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, and possibly Carlos Gonzalez should all be available and could slide into right field with an Eaton move to center.
Jonathan Lucroy could also be on the move, and would be a night-and-day improvement over the current catching tandem of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro. The 30-year old with a team-friendly option for 2017 is currently slashing .299/.358/.496 with 10 home runs and 36 RBIs.
There is also the question of the back end of the starting rotation, as the aforementioned Shields debacle has left the club still in need of help, and the front end of the bullpen, which due to injuries has been stretched exceedingly thin. The Braves and Athletics insist that Julio Teheran and Sonny Gray are not on the block, but either would certainly be an upgrade.
The issue is that any of those players would require a big package of prospects to acquire, and the White Sox system is probably too thin to provide that. Only top prospect Carson Fullmer and newly-drafted Zach Burdi have the kind of wow factor that could get them into the conversation.
But if Hahn decides the club is all in, the loss of two talented young arms is the price Chicago will have to pay.
Next: A stop-gap?
Option #3: Make a patchwork deal or two
If standing pat is too little and blowing up the farm system is too much, the White Sox could also look to make smaller moves in the hopes of patching up a few holes and creating some much-needed forward motion.
Veteran starting pitchers like Jeremy Hellickson of the Philadelphia Phillies, Andrew Cashner of the San Diego Padres, Jake Odorizzi of the Tampa Bay Rays, and Matt Garza of the Milwaukee Brewers may be available. While none of those names are likely to strike fear into the hearts of any opponents, any one of them would provide an upgrade over Gonzalez and insurance in case Shields really has become the nightmare proposition he’s shown.
On the reliever side, there is a similar list of somewhat blah names that includes David Hernandez of the Phillies, Sean Doolittle of the A’s, Will Smith of the Brewers, and Brad Ziegler of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The options offensively are similarly underwhelming. Jon Jay of the San Diego Padres may have been the best possibility as a stop-gap in center field, but he just fractured his forearm. If their teams decide to sell at the deadline, Brett Gardner of the New York Yankees and Matt Joyce of the Pittsburgh Pirates could both make sense as part of the right deal, as could the Atlanta Braves’ Nick Markakis.
Next: The future is now?
Option #4: Bring up the kids
The White Sox have already shown a willingness to bring top prospects up and thrown them into the big league fire with the promotion of Anderson after cutting ties with the ineffective Jimmy Rollins. They also bolstered their bullpen with Sale a few years back, shortly after he was drafted.
The problem, as was mentioned, is that Chicago lacks many prospects that could make an impact at the big league level right now. Aside from Anderson, Fullmer, and Burdi, the cupboard is pretty much bare.
Fullmer is 4-8 with a 5.28 ERA in 15 starts for the Double-A Birmingham Barons, and his walks per nine innings is over 5.0, which suggests he isn’t quite ready for prime time. Burdi has thrown just one inning in rookie ball and two in advanced A-ball since signing on June 18th, but threw 30 innings in 27 appearances with 11 saves for Louisville before the Cardinals were bounced from the NCAA tournament.
Perhaps Fullmer can fill one of the starting roles, and perhaps Burdi and his triple-digit fastball can be rushed to the majors Sale-style to bolster the bullpen, but it’s not clear that either move would help the Sox stay in contention throughout the summer.
Next: Demolition man?
Option #5: Blow it up and start rebuilding
A likely scenario? No. The best scenario given the team’s situation? Probably. Despite how the team has played over the past six weeks, the fact is that Chicago has several players on team-friendly contracts that could be enticing to contending ballclubs at the deadline, and dealing them could jumpstart the organization’s rebuild.
Both Philadelphia and Milwaukee have done the same over the course of the past year, trading away established players for major hauls of prospects and going from being among the most terrible farm systems in baseball to among the best. There are no guarantees that this course of action will pay dividends down the road, but it appears preferable to hovering around .500 for years.
Sale’s current contract will pay him $12 million in 2017 and has team options for 2018 and 2019 at $12.5 million and $13.5 million, respectively, which is about as big of a bargain for an established ace as there is in MLB. The return for a player of Sale’s caliber would be massive.
Quintana may be an even better bargain, though the return in a trade would not rival what Chicago would receive for Sale. The lefty has two years and just $15.85 million remaining on his deal, plus two team options beyond that at $10.5 million and $11.5 million apiece. Given the skyrocketing salaries of starter pitchers, those are extremely affordable numbers relative to his performance.
In the everyday lineup, Eaton and Abreu are both under contract until 2020, and both at reasonable prices if they continue to produce at their current levels, while Cabrera has another year left on his contract and Frazier will be arbitration eligible after this season, meaning that none of them would be mere half-season rentals. That’s important, because any team trading for them would be doing so for the future as well as the here and now, allowing the White Sox to demand a better return.
Next: Could The Oakland A's Re-Sign Josh Reddick?
While Chicago is highly unlikely to go this route, and obviously wouldn’t be likely to trade everyone listed here even if it was, there is an argument to be made that it would be the best course of action for the future of the organization. With just about a month until the trade deadline, we’ll have to wait and see how Hahn and the Sox decide to proceed.