Despite his early struggles during the 2016 campaign all signs point to an uptick in production from Jason Heyward with the Chicago Cubs.
Many pundits and bloggers have attempted to nitpick to find flaws with the NL Central leading Chicago Cubs, who have been the most dominate team in baseball thus far. 22 year old Short Stop Addison Russell has been on the end of many articles worrying over his production, while far more legitimate concerns have been raised over the Cubs Middle Relief.
Jason Heyward has also drawn critique from some in the media – Joe Buck famously saying he was off to an “Awful start in 2016.”
Is Buck correct?
For the most part, he is not. While he has struggled slightly offensively, his play in Right Field has been extraordinary. Going into play today he has a Defensive War of 7.7, UZR of 10.7, and a DEF rating of 8.0. Only Adam Eaton of the White Sox has higher metrics in Right Field in the entirety of baseball. His plus plus glove play has more than made up for his defensive struggles.
A huge part of the appeal of Jason Heyward has always been his superb fielding, being a 3 time Gold Glove winner coming into the 2016 season. In a Cubs lineup that doesn’t depend on any one hitter to carry the team – there is the luxury of allowing Heyward to work through his offensive struggles without panic.
Heyward often slots in 2nd in the Cubs batting order being surrounded by Dexter Fowler; who was having a great season offensively before a hamstring injury, to go along with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Now Javier Baez and Willson Contreras are providing offensive sparks as well. Those elements make it highly unlikely that Joe Maddon and the Cubs front office are overly worried.
However, are there signs Heyward will begin to increase his production?
His .298 BABIP is around league average, yet his nearly 20% K rate is far above his career average. Heyward also isn’t slugging at the rate he is accustomed to throughout his career either. Several different projecting algorithms show Heyward will finish the season hitting between .260-.270 which matches what he has traditionally done.
He’s unlikely to match the 13 Homeruns he hit as a Cardinal last year, which is a slight disappointment – however not a huge detraction over the numbers he could end the year with. With the quality of glove Heyward provides, his base running, and a possible .260 batting average he will continue to be a valuable member of the Cubs roster.
It’s a bit too early to panic over the early offensive struggles of Jason Heyward.