MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 AL MVP candidates through June
In the latest installment of our MLB Awards Watch, we check in on the state of the AL MVP race. Here are the top 5 contenders through the month of June.
The calendar has officially turned to July, and for baseball fans that means the All-Star Game – the MLB season’s unofficial halfway point – is right around the corner. It’s also as good a time as any to take stock in the various awards races around the league.
The American League MVP battle has been an exciting showcase for some of baseball’s brightest stars, and that should continue throughout the rest of the season. The Junior Circuit is bursting with talent right now, particularly on the offensive side of the game. Case in point, four of the current top five leaders in OPS are from AL clubs. Looking at the all-around picture, six of the top 10 in fWAR are American Leaguers.
While there’s a fairly clear frontrunner for the award at the moment (and you can probably guess who he is), virtually all of the other contenders can make a convincing argument for being listed right near the top. You can’t really go wrong with any of these guys, and it should be a real treat to keep watching them perform throughout the summer.
For now, let’s take a look at where things stand after the month of June. Here are our current top five candidates for the AL Most Valuable Player Award.
Honorable Mentions: Ian Desmond (TEX), Francisco Lindor (CLE), Robinson Cano (SEA)
Next: Number 5
5. Josh Donaldson, TOR
.286/.398/.566, 66 R, 19 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB, 155 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR
At first, the reigning AL MVP didn’t really seem like he wanted to hold on to the award. Much like the Toronto Blue Jays offense in general, Josh Donaldson endured somewhat of a tepid beginning to the season. By the end of May, he owned a .256/.355/.517 slash line, considerably below the high standard he set last year.
The third baseman caught fire in June, however, slashing .368/.487/.705 with six homers and 24 RBI. The hot month has raised his overall line to .286/.398/.566, which is very close to his 2015 production. In fact, his .964 OPS is .025 points higher than last season’s, and his 155 wRC+ is one point higher. Donaldson has also greatly improved his walk-drawing ability, taking 53 free passes through 80 games (14.6 percent BB%). He walked 73 times all of last year (10.3 percent).
The Jays as a whole have been climbing upward as well. They’re currently 5.5 games behind in the AL East and just one game back for the second Wild Card. Their lineup has also looked much more like its high-powered self recently, and Donaldson has been a major reason why. With Jose Bautista out since June 16, that’s been a huge plus.
Donaldson’s aforementioned 155 wRC+ is presently good for seventh in MLB and second in the AL. His 4.3 WAR also places him second among all position players. Many wondered if he would be able to recreate last season’s remarkable run, and through the first two months it seemed like a bit of an MVP hangover was in effect. Those notions are long gone, though, and Donaldson looks set on being even better this year.
Next: Number 4
4. David Ortiz, BOS
.342/.435/.684, 37 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, 187 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR
It seems almost a little cliché to continue mentioning how amazing David Ortiz has been in his final season, but you really can’t overemphasize it. At age 40, Big Papi truly looks as good as he’s ever been. And considering what he has accomplished during his 20 years in the major leagues, that’s saying something.
Ortiz has primarily been known for his power, and he still has it, with 19 round-trippers that place him sixth among the Junior Circuit. What’s really been surprising is the stellar batting average. He’s hitting .342, which would easily be a career high and is also good for second in the AL. If he keeps this up, he’ll be relevant in not only the MVP conversation but the batting title as well.
Ortiz has also notched an MLB-leading 31 doubles, putting him on track to shatter his previous personal best of 52. For comparison’s sake, he hit 37 all of last year. Back in April, it seemed a bit far-fetched to think that Ortiz would maintain his torrid pace and ride off into the sunset with an MVP award. He still has some formidable names to beat out, but that’s looking much more realistic at the moment.
Next: Number 3
3. Manny Machado, BAL
.330/.387/.601, 58 R, 18 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB, 157 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Last month, Baseball-Reference published a piece titled “You’ve Been Leaving Manny Machado out of Your Harper/Trout Debates.” The Baltimore Orioles third baseman’s performance this season has been hammering home that assertion. It’s easy to forget that Machado is still younger than Mike Trout and only three months older than Bryce Harper.
Manny Machado put together his best season yet as a big leaguer last year, and so far he appears determined to blow that one out of the water. He is slashing an eye-popping .330/.387/.601 with 18 home runs and 50 RBI. His 184 total bases lead both leagues, and his batting average (sixth), slugging percentage (second) and OPS (fifth) are all among the top marks in MLB.
The month of June was especially kind to Machado, who boosted his overall numbers with a .370/.396/.600 line, five homers and 21 RBI over 24 games. Right now his 4.1 fWAR places him fourth in the American League. For a first-place O’s team with a very robust offense, Machado has been the engine of the lineup. And it’s a little scary to think how much better he could become. Recently Fangraphs posted their own Machado article with a catchy title: “Manny Machado Is Becoming His Idol.” That idol (and the reason he wears #13) is, of course, Alex Rodriguez.
Next: Number 2
2. Jose Altuve, HOU
.352/.427/.565, 60 R, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 21 SB, 164 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR
After a surprisingly lackluster start, the Houston Astros are finally moving in the right direction, lending some extra clout to Jose Altuve‘s MVP candidacy. Not that he really needs it. But playing on a competitive team never hurt anybody come awards season. The second baseman has been a nonstop hitting machine since Opening Day and hasn’t looked back, slashing .352/.427/.565 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI.
His batting average leads both leagues, putting him on course to capture his second batting crown in six major league seasons. He is also the major league leader in hits (111) and second in OBP (.432). At his present clip, Altuve would finish with 225 hits on the year, which would match his total from 2014, the season in which he won the batting title with a .341 average.
Altuve has also taken a massive leap forward in his power-hitting ability. His 13 homers are only two behind his career high, which came last year. His .565 slugging percentage would also represent just over a .100 bump up from his previous personal best. Oh, and did we mention he has an AL-leading 21 stolen bases as well?
Average, speed, emerging power: Altuve does a lot of things very well for the Astros. His 4.3 fWAR is the third highest mark of its kind in the AL and fourth highest overall. It might be difficult to supplant the next man on the list, but if anyone is going to do it, Altuve looks very much up to the task.
Next: Number 1
1. Mike Trout, LAA
.325/.424/.576, 56 R, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 12 SB, 171 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR
Remember Mike Trout’s “slow start” to the season, when he was batting .220 on April 19, much to the alarm of hand-wringers everywhere? Neither does he. Any early sluggishness is well behind in the rearview mirror, and the Angels superstar is once again asserting himself as the generally accepted best player in baseball.
Trout is now rocking a .325/.424/.576 slash line along with 17 home runs and 53 RBI. He is third in all of Major League Baseball with a 1.000 OPS and second with a 171 wRC+. Trout slashed a hearty .333/.426/.576 with five long balls and 13 RBI in June to maintain his positive momentum. He also continues to provide strong defense in center field and boasts a 5.0 WAR, tops in the American League.
If anything could hurt Trout’s case, it’s that that Halos currently sit in the cellar of the AL West at 16 games under .500. However, the Trout band is so powerful at this point that it’s hard to see that being held against him. If anything, it’s crazy to think how much worse off the Angels could be if they didn’t have him.
Next: Top 5 NL MVP candidates through June
Trout has finished in the top two in MVP voting four years running, and there’s little reason to believe this season won’t continue the trend. He took home the hardware in 2014, and as things stand, he remains the favorite to add a second MVP award to his mantle.