MLB: Top 5 AL Cy Young Contenders For June

June is in the history books and the American League Cy Young race starts to show clarity as the playoff races shake out at the halfway point of the MLB season.

With the 2016 MLB season hitting the halfway point, the American League Cy Young Award race is showing signs of separation.

In this month’s group, we see our first closer attract attention and a pair of Texas Rangers climb the list. As the pennant races spread out, with the best race now for the two Wild Card spots, you can gaze into the crystal ball and see how those races play out.

For your approval this month, we see a rookie crack the top 10 along with a closer. The metrics used to put the rankings together—a mix of WAR, WHIP and ERA—netted 16 pitchers total including the entire Cleveland Indians starting rotation. As they reflect on the end of a 14-game winning streak, it is amazing that an entire rotation is that good.

While the Indians rise, the Chicago White Sox stumble. Now with a 41-40 record, their grip on last month’s ratings list is gone.

A bunch has changed in the last 30 days, but with the Indians and Rangers holding big leads in their respective divisions, the rankings should be stable the rest of the way. If not, there are bigger problems for those two teams then award votes.

A note of silver lining for Boston Red Sox fans, would you believe Rick Porcello is tenth in WHIP at 1.140? Some mighty decent pitching this year in the AL.

(All bolded statistics are as of June 30.)

Next: The Rest of the Top 10

BEST OF THE REST

—Trevor Bauer continues to amaze. Now a full time starter for Cleveland, his 3.08 ERA was good for 6th in the AL at the end of the month and his 2.9 WAR was fifth. In June, Bauer ran the table going 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA in six starts. With a 7-2 mark this season in 12 starts, he even tossed his first complete game this year in June. He missed cracking the top five.

–As the New York Yankees continue to spin their wheels, Masahiro Tanaka’s weak June pushes him out of the top five. After two strong months, hitters finally pushed his WHIP above one to 1.061 (5th). Going 2-2 in June with an ERA of 4.12, Tanaka closes the first half with a 5-2 mark and an incredible 19 walks in 104.2 innings.

–If you are wondering how the Baltimore Orioles lead the AL East with only one consistent starter (Chris Tillman) look no further than closer Zach Britton. Leading the league with 23 saves, he has not allowed an earned run since April. With an ERA of 0.81, his BABIP is .230. Only 26 of the 124 batters facing him have reached base.

–A 4-1 June puts Corey Kluber on the list. Now leading the AL in WHIP at 0.976, his veteran arm is guiding Cleveland back to the playoffs. He went the distance twice in June and cut the number of hits allowed nearly in half from May. In 37 innings, he surrendered 19 hits, May’s 39.2 frames saw 37 hits. If there is a dark horse to take the award in the second half, watch Kluber.

–The emergence of Michael Fulmer’s rookie season with the Detroit Tigers has reached storybook status. In five June starts, he posted an ERA of 0.61 with a WHIP of 0.910. As the Tigers claw themselves toward the Wild Card, Fulmer is a big reason. His WAR of 3.2 as of June 30 is third in the AL. His ERA of 2.17 would lead the league if he had enough innings to qualify. He can with the ERA crown if he throws 162 innings, something he will need to do if Detroit contends down the stretch.

Next: An Injured Ranger

COLBY LEWIS, TEXAS RANGERS

6-1 W-L, 3.21 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 2.6 WAR

Colby Lewis’ season derailed in June when he was diagnosed with a lat strain, sidelining him until late August. On June 21 at home against the Cincinnati Reds, he suffered the strain and his first loss of the season. Before that, he was a key part of the Texas Rangers rotation running away with the AL West.

In June, Lewis hurled a complete game and posted a WHIP of 0.786. Because he is not the strikeout artist that so many on this list are, his BABIP of .179 is incredible. In 98 innings, Lewis recorded 61 punch outs. When healthy he is the best pitch to contact hurler in the game.

Through June, his WHIP was seventh in the AL, the ERA ninth and his WAR ninth as well. A consistent starter every time he takes the hill and will be sorely missed over the next eight weeks.

Although the injury effectively ends his chances of winning the award, Texas will need him healthy for September and the playoffs. With the race nearly over, as the bulge over the Houston Astros is 8.5 games, having Lewis a healthy part of the playoff rotation is required if Texas is to have a chance at their first World Series win.

Next: Hamels, Texas Ranger

MARCO ESTRADA, TORONTO BLUE JAYS

5-3 W-L, 2.81 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, 2.9 WAR

As the Toronto Blue Jays position themselves for a run at the AL Wild Card and the Orioles for the AL East, Marco Estrada will play a major role in the outcome.

There was a little of everything in June for him. A strong WHIP of 0.918 for the month along with allowing 17 hits in 32.2 innings was good. Six of those hits landing for home runs and a 3.58 ERA is not. Still, his 0.987 WHIP is third in the league at the end of June while his WAR and ERA totals are fifth-best.

He is also a bit of a paradox. Opponents hit .148 off him in June and .173 for the year, but when they leave the bat, bad things happen. Including his one July start, 14 balls have left the yard on Estrada. His BABIP of .193 is excellent, but those mistakes, running around one a game, will be what holds him back from winning the award. More importantly, it might hold the Blue Jays back from the postseason.

It is said won-loss records are overrated regarding how good a pitcher is. With a WAR of almost three, his true record should be better. The home runs, however, tell a different story. Half his starts are no decisions, posting an ERA of 3.12 and striking out 10.3 per nine. In his five wins, the strikeout rate drops to 6.4. Lack of run support is one reason, his lack of ability to keep the ball in the yard is another.

If Toronto plays meaningful October baseball, Estrada will need to cut the big mistakes, if his back holds out. If they both do it, he will be in good shape for the Cy.

Next: Cleveland's WAR Leader

DANNY SALAZAR, CLEVELAND INDIANS

10-3 W-L, 2.22 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 4.0 WAR

If we handed out the Cy Young for the best pitcher on a playoff-bound team, Danny Salazar would have one hand on it.

A marvelous first half was capped in June with a perfect 5-0 record, an ERA of 1.91 and opponents hitting a paltry .177 off him. When they made contact, the BABIP was .227.

With 10 wins, his ERA leads the league and so does his WAR. His Adjusted ERA+ of 210, best in the AL, puts him in the middle of a historic season. Salazar’s stingy 5.882 hits allowed-per-nine is second.

Much has been written on how good the Indians are right now. They hold a comfortable lead in the AL Central off a 14-game winning streak and, unlike their mid-1990s glory days, their staff of starters is the best in the league.

Salazar sits on top of the heap. His 4.0 WAR if fifth-best in the league when you include hitters. He has a win in each of his last six starts and has not allowed more hits than innings pitch since May 22, a 5-2 loss at Fenway Park to the Boston Red Sox. For his high strikeout rate, 10.3=per-nine, he has one double-digit whiff performance this year, fanning 10 at Houston on May 11.

At 26, this is a special year for him.

Next: Chicago's Best Sale

CHRIS SALE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

13-2 W-L, 2.79 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 3.9 WAR

For all the talk of pitching in meaningful games and impressing voters, what Chris Sale has done on a Chicago White Sox team spinning out of control is incredible.

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Now 14-2 after winning his first July start, Sale is on pace to be the first 25-game winner in baseball since Bob Welch won 27 with the Oakland Athletics in 1990. We all downplay win totals, but if you think about Greg Maddux—a 355-game winner—he hit 20 once in his career. Sale’s on pace to win 28 on a mediocre team.

Although June was not a great month, he still has a WHIP under one, is second in strikeouts with 118 and an Adjusted ERA+ of 139. With a league-high 120 innings on his arm, Sale is cradling Chicago’s playoff hopes in his left arm. Right now, he is the franchise.

As attention draws away to meaningful games, Sale finds himself in a position to pitch for history. At 27, he is now in the prime of his career. What he does in the next four-five years could well lead him to enshrinement in Cooperstown.

The Cy Young Award differs from the Most Valuable Player. The best pitcher is supposed to win and it is Sale’s to lose. Although Danny Salazar may be the sexier pick with how well the Indians are playing, do not discount what Sale does every fifth day on a team going the wrong way.

He needs his teammates such as Jose Quintana to get hot again if Chicago is to reverse fortunes, but Sale is similar to crosstown rival Jake Arrieta in every time out something special might happen.

Next: Top 5 AL MVP Contenders

That, and a big contract extension, is what is on the line for him.