Baseball’s 50 Top Prospects: 20-11
Who are the top prospects in all the land?
It’s that time of the summer. Minor League All-Star games are completed or soon to be completed, the Futures Game rosters have been announced, and the short-season leagues are all now playing, so all teams that will be playing this season have played at this point.
You’ll see a number of various publications come out with their top prospect lists over the next few months, and each of them bring a different perspective. I’m going to put forth a top 50 today in groups of 10 throughout the day.
A few things, I won’t be putting any players drafted in the 2016 draft in this list. There is simply too much yet to be known about those players to grade them against players with professional experience at this point.
I think you’ll enjoy the list, and I’d love to hear any comments about where you disagree or where a player could have been rated differently. Thanks for the read!
Next: #20 & #19
20. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians
Frazier was the #5 overall selection by the Indians in 2013. He’s been working his way up step by step in the system ever since, making his way to AA Akron this year as a 21 year-old. He has worked the last few years alongside Bradley Zimmer, and it’s been a positive for him as the two seem to play off of each other well.
Frazier has been a guy who has dropped his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate every single season. He’s also shown his ability to hit for both power and utilize his speed, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 12 bases in 2014 in low-A, 16 home runs and stealing 15 bases in 2015 in high-A, and having 9 home runs and steals thus far in 2016.
Frazier has moved to the corner as he is playing next to Zimmer, who’s an elite defensive center fielder, and he’s shown to be a guy who could be an elite corner defensive outfielder. He’ll be a guy mentioned a ton in trade talks this summer, but he could be up as soon as September this season, and his power potential is tremendous in his swing.
19. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon was drafted 2nd overall in 2010 – between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He had Tommy John surgery in 2014, and he’s taken his time to come back (along with other minor injuries), ensuring his health and readiness to perform. It has shown to be well-played.
Taillon was dominating AAA this year before being promoted to Pittsburgh, where he’s continued his success. For AAA Indianapolis, Taillon had a 2.04 ERA and a 0.81 ERA with a 6/61 BB/K ratio over 61 2/3 innings. With the Pirates, he’s thrown to a 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his first 5 starts, with a 5/21 BB/K ratio over 28 innings.
Taillon mixes a high-90s fastball, hammer curve that breaks from 12 to 6, and a change up that has gone from a work in progress to very good this season. I don’t imagine Taillon will be down again as he is pitching great for the Pirates, but he’s really a great example of taking that extra time from a TJS helping out.
Next: #18 & #17
18. A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros
The former Golden Spikes award winner was drafted in the 2nd round by the Houston Astros in 2014, and he’s moved quickly through their system. He’s a ginormous human being at 6’4 and 275 pounds, so he’s likely going to play first base or designated hitter, and that means he has to hit a lot to be a prospect…and hit a lot, he certainly has!
Coming into the season, Baseball America had Reed ranked as the #11 prospect in all of baseball, but MLB.com had him at #40 and Baseball Prospectus had him at #55. The lower rankings cited his limited position flexibility and his reliance on the long ball for his success as major knocks on Reed, along with an elevated strikeout rate due to his big swing.
This season, the Astros sent Reed to AAA Fresno, and some of those concerns proved true. While Reed hit for power, with 11 home runs, he hit .266 on the season, which was not that great, especially in a hitting league like the PCL. His strikeout rate has gone up 4% this season. The Astros called him up this week, but he’s struggled this week in his first exposure to the majors. Obviously that doesn’t mean he’s never going to produce, but it does highlight some of the concerns with Reed in spite of that monster power in his bat.
17. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
The Twins drafted Berrios out of Puerto Rico in the first round of the 2012 draft. Many evaluators quickly realized that was possibly a steal in the draft as Berrios blew through both rookie leagues with a total 1.17 ERA. He spent a year in A-ball in 2013, but then he jumped all the way to AAA in 2014 and spent 2015 between AA and AAA at 21 years old, clocking a 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 38/175 BB/K ratio over 166 1/3 innings.
Coming into this season, Berrios was considered a very elite prospect, ranked #28 by Baseball America, #19 by MLB.com, and #17 by Baseball Prospectus. Berrios has a fastball that sits 93-95 and touches 97 along with a curve that sits around 81. His change is a definite elite pitch as well. Berrios is also considered an elite athlete on the mound.
The biggest issue for Berrios going forward will simply be his size. He’s listed at 6′ and 185 pounds, and that is quite accurate, and that small size throwing that hard just worries you about his long-term health. The Twins will be bringing Berrios back up again for the second half of the season, but there’s no rush with the major league team going nowhere in 2016.
Next: #16 & #15
16. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Robles was signed by the Nationals out of the Dominican Republic, and he made his debut in the DSL in 2014. Then came 2015, when Robles exploded onto the scene state-side, hitting .352/.445/.507 with 24 stolen bases across two short-season leagues and generally opening a ton of eyes across the industry. Coming into this year, Robles was ranked #33 by Baseball America, #63 by MLB.com, and #29 by Baseball Prospectus.
All of those rankings now appear very conservative. Robles at 19 years old was sent to class A ball with Hagerstown, and he’s already earned a promotion to high-A after hitting .305/.405/.459 with Hagerstown, with 5 home runs and 6 triples along with 19 stolen bases. Robles also flashed excellent defensive ability in center field. He’s quickly become a favorite prospect of many who love athleticism, as he simply oozes that at all times.
Robles does struggle some with extended slumps, and he’s dealt with one this year, hitting near .400 at one point in May, and now he’s down to .305, so he can bottom out in a hurry. He also has hit the weight room to add muscle, but he’s got a narrow frame on his 6′ height, so adding too much muscle will sacrifice his speed and defense.
He’s only two games into his time with high-A, so I would imagine he spends the rest of the summer there, and then we could see him this fall in Arizona, which would be very intriguing to see how he matches up against elite pitching in that environment.
15. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
De Leon was a 24th round draft choice by the Dodgers in 2013, and he’s turned into one of the best prospects in all of baseball, which is an incredible developmental process. The big part was that the Dodgers worked with De Leon to trim his body from slightly overweight coming out of college to a guy who is viewed now as extremely athletic.
He’s been challenged by the club each offseason to work on various parts of his game, whether it was his mechanics the offseason after his draft year or his change up after 2014 or giving himself time to recover from an injury this last offseason. He works with a fastball that sits in the low-90s with the ability to both sink and “lift” his fastball. He’s also got a change that really is hard to pick up due to his arm speed remaining very similar to his fastball. He uses his breaking pitch well with depth to get swing and miss from righties and weak contact from lefties.
De Leon came into the season ranked #23 by Baseball America, #24 by MLB.com, and #28 by Baseball Prospectus, so the industry had near-consensus on De Leon’s spot among prospects. He’s been tasked with pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year, but he’s thrown well, with a 3.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 6/29 BB/K ratio over 18 1/3 innings since he’s come back from his injury that delayed the start of his season. That incredible strikeout rate will keep him on the precipice of the majors all season as the Dodgers work to shore up their back end of their rotation.
Next: #14 & #13
14. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Reyes was rated very highly by Baseball America (#7) and Baseball Prospectus (#10) coming into the 2016 season, but he faced a 50-game suspension for marijuana that delayed the start of his season. He’s come back and not exactly thrown tremendously well, with a 4.93 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 18/52 BB/K ratio over 34 2/3 innings.
Reyes has incredible stuff that Baseball America coined as “closer stuff for six and seven innings at a time”. He can throw 100 MPH+, and he regularly sits in the 95-97 MPH range with his fastball that is extremely heavy and low in the zone. He has a 12-6 curve ball that has been improving in velocity and break as he’s worked his way up the Cardinals system. His change was actually his most reliable pitch when he signed out of the Dominican Republic, and he’s maintained that pitch as excellent, but the fastball and curve have passed it by.
That mix of incredible stuff absolutely leaves scouts drooling as they watch Reyes mow through hitters. He’s also been excellent at limiting home runs in his career, but he’s struggling with that this year in the PCL. I would imagine Reyes gets a call to St. Louis this season, perhaps in a
sort of role as the Cardinals work toward the playoffs, especially if they don’t shore up the back of the bullpen.
13. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Coming into this season, Crawford was near consensus top-5 prospect, ranking #6 with Baseball America, #5 with MLB.com, and #4 with Baseball Prospectus. I’ll be honest that I’ve been more down on Crawford than that consensus, though Minor League Ball’s John Sickels had Crawford at #21, so I wasn’t alone in seeing a ton of talent, but not quite top-5 level.
Crawford started with AA Reading, and he hit well enough there to earn a promotion, going .265/.398/.390 before his promotion, but he’s absolutely stopped hitting in AAA, hitting .227/.313/.277 for Lehigh Valley. Crawford has maintained his elite-level defense, and he’s not had a terrible strikeout to walk rate, so there is some hope there, but it is worrisome to see that wall hit.
Crawford is still only 21 at AAA, playing elite defense at the toughest defensive position on the diamond. I am not giving up on him by any means, but I think it’s wise to pump the brakes on the top 5 prospect placement. I’m hoping the Phillies don’t force him to the big leagues as a way to placate fans in a lost season and let him spend the season working through his issues at AAA rather than the majors.
Next: #12 & #11
12. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
After a dominant college career, the Red Sox selected Benintendi 7th overall in the 2015 draft, and he immediately made an impact, hitting .313/.416/.556 across two levels with 11 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He was rated as the #15 prospect by Baseball America, #25 by MLB.com, and #46 by Baseball Prospectus.
Benintendi is listed at 5’10 and 170 pounds, and frankly, both measurements may be generous, as he’s a small guy, but he really uses his body well, and he has an incredibly well-timed swing and explosive wrists. He’s also a tremendous athlete, playing center field thus far, though I believe he’s likely a left fielder going forward.
Benintendi started the season at high-A and was so good he was promoted to AA. He’s hitting .311/.374/.509 this season, showing last year was no post-draft fluke. He’s hit 5 home runs, 8 triples, and stolen 14 bases.
I see Benintendi as only limited by his size, but I was listening to a podcast talking with an employee of the Staten Island minor league team, and he was asked about how many players had ever hit a “splash” hit, a ball that left their ball park into the water beyond. He stated only one ever had, and that was Benintendi – twice. His ability is tremendous for such a small build, and I truly hope the size doesn’t lead to higher rate of injury.
11. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
When you have a draft rule named after you, you know that you’re a pretty good prospect. The Trea Turner rule was put into place after Turner was forced to spend the start of the 2015 season with San Diego, even though he had been traded in the offseason as a Player To Be Named Later in a deal. San Diego had drafted him 13th in the 2014 draft, and the rule at the time was that a player could not be traded until a full year after his draft.
Turner came into the season as one of the highest rated prospects in baseball, ranked #9 by Baseball America, #11 by MLB.com, and #13 by Baseball Prospectus. Turner has a tremendous amount of speed, having stolen 74 bases in the equivalent of a season and a half of minor league games. He’s also got tremendous range at shortstop.
The issue is that Turner is with the Nationals, who for some reason cannot find a way to get Turner a full time job in the majors. The Nationals have given him work at second base and center field in the minor leagues just to get him more flexibility to get up.
One of the issues Turner does have is that his arm isn’t very strong, which is why second base made sense to me for Turner. He’s also got an incredibly level swing, which doesn’t generate much over-the-fence power. Other than that, there’s really no reason Turner shouldn’t be at the top of the Nationals lineup right now.
Next: 2016 Draft Winners and Losers