MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL Cy Young Candidates Through June
As MLB starts the second half of the season, the race for the 2016 National League Cy Young Award hinges on the back of Clayton Kershaw.
The 2016 National League Cy Young Award race depends entirely on the health of Clayton Kershaw. If the Los Angeles Dodgers ace comes off the MLB disabled list quickly and can deliver the same numbers, the award is his, plain and simple.
If his mild lower back injury keeps him out for long, or if he struggles on his return, there are candidates ready to pounce and bring home the hardware.
As with the American League, much of the playoff focus in the NL during the second half sits with the Wild Card race. Although the Dodgers and New York Mets hold the current spots, the surprising Miami Marlins and steady St. Louis Cardinals are ready to pounce. Now we have reached the halfway point of the season over the holiday weekend, games magnify and the pressure most of us find enjoyable builds.
Beyond Kershaw, a pair of aces to the north nip at his heels. In the east, the Washington Nationals and New York battle for more than position. There is one pitcher on this list who will draw considerable trade interest as the deadline approaches. For as clear-cut as the race looks now, the subplots boiling under the surface gives this race a complexion deeper than usual.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the month is the fall of what sure looked like a credible candidate 30 days ago. Just your average month in Major League Baseball.
A reminder, any statistics in bold are current as of July 4.
Next: Those Outside the Top 5
BEST OF THE REST
As we head towards the All-Star break, seven pitchers have a realistic chance of winning the Cy Young. Here are those just falling outside the top five.
— Another injury has Washington Nationals fans wondering how much Stephen Strasburg has left as the Nats lock down a playoff trip. Back in the rotation, Strasburg still has yet to lose this year, now 11-0 with an ERA of 2.71. He carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds before his pitch count hit 109. Safe to say his health and march towards a Cy Young is fine.
— Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta dropped three of his last six decisions and to seventh in our rankings. Although the rest of the NL is relieved to know he is human, there has to be some concern in Chicago. Maybe after a 9-0 start with a WHIP under 1.00 he is returning to earth. Still on pace to win 24 and strikeout 230, the added rest this month should help him as the season heats up.
— One of the big surprises in the first half of 2016 is the Miami Marlins. As they make a bid for a Wild Card, Jose Fernandez is getting the chance to show why he is among the league’s best. With only four starts in June, he whiffed 42 in 27 innings while walking 5 and allowing 14 hits. A 10-game winner in the first half, he will get meaningful starts the rest of the way. After getting lit up in his lone July start, and with his previous innings high of 172.2, fatigue is something to watch for.
— Do not let Jacob deGrom’s 4-4 record fool you. As the Mets offense struggled in June, his three losses came with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.030. Striking out 10.9 per nine, he has re-established the dominance found in April and has taken the slack given by the unusual year Matt Harvey is having. Still in control of their own destiny, a huge second half can propel deGrom much higher on the list.
— In his second NL season, Jon Lester is having a great year for the Cubs. Forget the shellacking the Mets gave him over the weekend, he gave Chicago six great starts in June including a complete game. Posting an ERA of 1.41 and winning all four decisions, his WHIP for the month was 0.784 as he fanned 44 in 44.2 frames. A 9-4 first half does not make him an instant contender, but if he can deliver a sub-2.50 ERA and a WHIP around 1.000 the rest of the way, he has a chance.
Next: A Brave Ace
JULIO TEHERAN, ATLANTA BRAVES
3-7 W-L, 2.72 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 3.4 WAR
The Atlanta Braves are a lousy team. If they scored a few runs for Julio Teheran, his won-loss record would look reasonable. In his seven no-decisions this year, Teheran has an ERA of 2.20. When he wins that number drops to 0.73. His WHIP is second in the NL and his 3.4 WAR (4th) eclipses his win total.
No wonder why Atlanta fields calls on his trade availability daily.
In June—while going 2-2—he scattered 17 hits in 37.2 innings for an opponent’s batting average of .133. Toss in his four walks with 37 strikeouts and the OBP jumps to .165. Those are Cy Young numbers. How can anyone keep runners off base 83.5 percent of the time and lose twice?
With the pressure of seeing your name and traded either in the paper or online every day, Teheran has to be unsettled to a degree. His lone July start saw him take a no decision after allowing 11 hits and five earned runs over 6.2 innings at home to Miami on the first.
The Braves steadfastly deny he is going anywhere. Until the deadline passes, you never know. What is certain in his sixth season is Teheran will draw another All-Star nod and serious consideration for the Cy. As the rest of the contenders worry about if and when they will pitch in the postseason, he worries if he will need a mover.
Next: Gotham's Thor
NOAH SYNDERGAARD, NEW YORK METS
9-3 W-L, 2.41 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 3.4 WHIP
If the Mets can get past the Nationals/Cubs/San Francisco Giants three-headed monster and return to the World Series, then the keepers of Citi Field should measure where to put “Thor”‘s statue. In his second year, Noah Syndergaard evokes memories of Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden for the faithful in Flushing.
June was not flawless for him. Despite a 3-1 record, he allowed 33 hits in 30.1 innings and an ERA of 3.86. Syndergaard even walked six. His total now at 15 compared to 123 strikeouts. Pinpoint control wins you a slew of ball games.
At home for every walk allowed, he has fanned 25.33. In 58 innings, he struck out 76 while walking three. The downside of those gaudy statistics is when hitter make contact, they reach base. His BABIP at home is .360.
Although he can be hit, his ERA is fourth in the NL and WAR ranks second. As the season goes on, will he feel any pressure? Remember, he beat the Kansas City Royals in the World Series last year. Syndergaard makes it look effortless. We can quibble that he needs to learn to pitch rather than throw, but for now all bets are off. If Kershaw cannot bounce back, Thor could steal his first Cy.
Next: San Francisco's New Ace
JOHNNY CUETO, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
12-1 W-L, 2.57 ERA, 1.022 WHIP, 3.2 WAR
A return to the NL agrees with Johnny Cueto. In his first year with the San Francisco Giants, he dominates the league, not losing a game since April.
A perfect 8-0 record away from home, he is on pace for a 24-win season. His WHIP, WAR and ERA are fifth-best in the NL. With 12 wins in the bank, opponents are hitting .228 off him and reaching base at a .274 clip.
June was a good month. In five starts, Cueto went 3-0 with an ERA of 2.67. As the Giants try to win a fourth-straight even year World Series, his ability to eat innings and complete games takes pressure off the rest of the staff and saves the bullpen. Tied for the NL lead with 122.1 innings pitched and three complete games, he has two shutouts on the ledger.
One reason he is successful has to do with his control. It is fantastic. Recording 107 strikeouts to 23 walks, Cueto’s strikeout/walk ratio is 4.65. When he lets one slip out of the park, he is minimizing the damage by not letting walks hurt him.
When the Giants do not score more than two runs a start, Cueto is 4-1 with an ERA of 1.10. Both shutouts came under those circumstances. Having a pitcher who is capable of making one or two runs work is rare. It also helps you win the Cy Young.
Next: An Emerging Giants Legend
MADISON BUMGARNER, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
9-4 W-L, 2.20 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 3.2 WAR
The legend of Madison Bumgarner grows with every start. For the first time since 1976, a manager did not use the designated hitter in an American League ballpark as Bruce Bochy batted Bumgarner recently against the Oakland Athletics across the bay.
What he does with the left arm is what we are focusing on and, despite a 3-2 mark in June, he continues to strengthen every month. In six starts, he posted a WHIP of 0.850 and an ERA of 2.34. The long ball is a concern as six hits left the park but, opposing batters hit .192 off him with an OBP of .233. Adding his second complete game in June, Bumgarner featured his best control of the season, fanning 43 while walking seven.
Overall, he has the second-best ERA in the NL at 2.20. His WHIP of 1.020 is fourth and 3.2 WAR is sixth.
If there is one word you can use to describe the lefty, it would be consistent. In his nine wins, his WHIP is 0.990. The four losses, it jumps to 1.063 and his four no decisions show a 1.054 mark.
Pressure? What is that? Bumgarner will do what is asked whenever. His heroics earned the Giants their last championship, keeping the Kansas City Royals off-balance out of the bullpen in Game 7 two years ago. Three straight top 10 finishes in the Cy Young voting could lead to his first award this year.
Next: The King of Los Angeles
CLAYTON KERSHAW, LOS ANGELES DODGERS
11-2 W-L, 1.79 ERA, 0.727 WHIP, 4.7 WAR
Clayton Kershaw plays to a different audience than other pitchers. Sure, the folks at Dodger Stadium count for something, but the Los Angeles Dodgers ace is pitching against history and not the National League.
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A herniated disc in his lower back threatens his season, along with the Dodgers, and a bid for his fourth Cy Young Award in six years. If he can get healthy, the award is his. The numbers are astronomical.
A WHIP of 0.727 would be the best of all-time, surpassing Pedro Martinez’s eye-popping 0.737 for the Boston Red Sox in 2000. Somehow if he slumps to an 0.799, that is still a top five mark. Two-hundred twenty-three seasons of under 1.000 WHIP are in the record books. Kershaw owns five.
His 4.9 total WAR this year is the best in the entire NL. An MVP in 2014, Kershaw is headed for another. We play checkers, he plays chess.
Most pitchers’ ERA usually is lower than their FIP. The ability to strike out batters by the bushel helps keep the ERA low. Not here. Kershaw’s regular ERA is 1.79, his third sub-2.00 season. His FIP is 1.69. On track for a third-straight year his FIP is under 2.00. His ERA tops the league by half a run.
Next: Top Ten Current Players Destined for the HOF
Assuming the back injury is not more serious than a short disabled list trip, Kershaw’s name is engraved on the trophy. As good and deep as pitching is right now, no one in either league approaches his ability. To add to batter’s nightmares, Kershaw will not turn 30 until 2018.