Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki finally heating up

Since returning from a DL stint two and a half weeks ago, Troy Tulowitzki has looked much more like the player the Toronto Blue Jays hoped they were getting in last season’s trade.

A year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays made a pair of blockbuster trade acquisitions in a bold attempt to launch a World Series run. Most knew that starting pitcher David Price would likely be a half-season rental, but shortstop Troy Tulowitzki – under contract through at least 2020 – represented a long-term commitment.

For the most part, Tulowitzki’s time north of the border hasn’t been all that inspiring, but since returning from the disabled list on June 18, he has looked like a rejuvenated player. Despite last night’s golden sombrero (0-for-4 with four strikeouts vs. the Royals), he is slashing .317/.380/.683 over his last 16 games with seven home runs and 17 RBI. In that span he has raised his season batting average by 36 points (.199 to .235) and nearly doubled his home run total to 15. He has now collected 40 RBI on the year as well.

It’s a hot steak the likes of which Blue Jays fans haven’t really seen from Tulowitzki until this point. He slashed .333/.448/.667 with two homers and five RBI in his first seven games with Toronto in 2015, but he only managed a .223/.292/.331 line, three home runs and 12 RBI over the remainder of the regular season (34 games).

This year started much the same. By May 27, Tulowitzki owned a paltry .204/.289/.383 slash line along with eight round-trippers and 23 RBI. Then came something that has been all too common throughout the shortstop’s 11-year career: a trip to the disabled list. Tulo hit the 15-day DL on May 28 with a strained right quad and ended up missing three weeks.

Given Tulowitzki’s extensive injury history and the fact that he will turn 32 in October, it was natural to wonder if his best days were firmly behind him. What could the Jays reasonably expect during the next several years? With Tulowitzki due $20 million per season for the next three years and $14 million in 2020 (plus a $15 million team option with a $4 million buyout the following year), that’s an investment with the potential to turn real ugly for Toronto.

While a torrid couple of weeks isn’t enough to answer those questions definitively, Tulowitzki has certainly demonstrated that he can still perform like the player who earned five All-Star nods with the Colorado Rockies. And that’s a welcome development as far as the Jays are concerned.

This turnaround was probably a long time coming, however. Before being placed on the DL, Tulowitzki had a .232 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), well below his career average of .318. Since his return, he’s been working with a .289 BABIP. That’s definitely helped him move in the right direction, and it’s certainly not unsustainable either.

The home run pace will likely slow, but that’s to be expected: Tulowitzki has generated a 35.0 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) ratio since June 18, compared to a career average of 15.4 percent.

There are other signs that bode well for his overall performance, though. Back on May 12, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs observed at Tulowitzki was only making contact on 79 percent of his swings at pitches in the strike zone (Z-Contact%), significantly below last year’s mark of 85 percent and previous years when he consistently cracked 90 percent. Since that piece was published, Tulowitzki has posted a Z-Contact% of 90.3 percent, raising his season mark to 83.1 percent.

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Away from the numbers, Tulowitzki believes that the weeks off did him some good in terms of allowing him to fine-tune his approach. “I really think that I went down to Florida, it gave me a chance to work on my swing, get back to some good things that I did,” he told Sportsnet.ca. “I think I’ve carried that over. When confidence comes, you start having some success. I’m really just trying to be myself. I think this is really who I am. I don’t think some Blue Jays fans have had a chance to see really what I’m capable of doing. So it’s nice to contribute, but more importantly, winning games is the goal here.”

Toronto has certainly been winning more games of late, now only 2.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East lead. Tulowitzki’s re-emergence adds another potent weapon to a team that’s stacked with them, and with Jose Bautista out of commission since the middle of June, it’s also come at just the right moment.

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Not too long ago Tulowitzki seemed at risk of becoming something of a forgotten man in the Jays lineup, but he’s increasingly making his presence known. Looking ahead at the uncertainty of Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion‘s upcoming free agencies, Toronto will hope it continues.

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