MLB: Who Is The Favorite To Win The Home Run Derby?
The field is set for Monday’s Home Run Derby in San Diego. Who has a chance of taking home the title?
Petco Park in San Diego, home of the 2016 Major League Baseball All-Star Game, has gotten a reputation as an extremely pitcher-friendly stadium since its opening in 2004. That perception, though, may be a bit outdated, as a decision to move the fences in after the 2012 season has moved the home of the Padres closer to the league average when it comes to longballs.
The participants in the 2016 Home Run Derby will look to put that old idea to rest on Monday night, as two former champions, one rookie, one hometown favorite, and two players who’ve already eclipsed 200 career homers will do battle for the title of home run king.
This year’s challenge features a seeded, single elimination, head-to-head format, with each player getting four minutes to hit as many home runs as they can. An additional thirty seconds of bonus time will be added for any player who hits two homers of at least 440 feet, with StatCast providing distances, exit velocities, and launch angles.
Six of the eight Derby participants were selected for the All-Star Game, with two wild card players not playing on Tuesday added to bolster the field. The official bracket looks like this:
So much power: Presenting the 2016 @TMobile #HRDerby bracket! 💪💪💪 pic.twitter.com/dwtD7Z9H7e
— MLB (@MLB) July 7, 2016
A glance at Petco Park’s dimensions suggest that the advantage may go to right-handed hitters, with the left field Line at 336 feet and straight away left coming in at 357 feet, as opposed to 322 feet down the right field line but 382 feet to straight away right. Center field sits at just 396, but the power alleys are a cavernous 401 feet in left and 400 feet in right, meaning pull power will be highly important.
So who has the best chance of coming out on top? Let’s take a look at the head-to-head matchups and try to handicap this slugfest.
Next: Trumbombs.
#1 Mark Trumbo vs. #8 Corey Seager
Mark Trumbo of the Baltimore Orioles enters the event on Monday night as the MLB leader in home runs, thus earning the top seed. Heading into play on Friday, the newly-minted all-star has hit 26 home runs in 2016, with some impressive StatCast numbers. Trumbo’s average homer distance is 413 feet, which ranks third in the field, with an average exit velocity over 107 miles per hour.
Of his 26 taters, Trumbo has hit 11 either down the line or straight away to left field, with another nine clearing the fence in the left field alley or straight away center. That pull power, coupled with a swing that has produced a season-long home run of 458 feet and an exit velocity approaching 115 mph, will make Trumbo a difficult opponent head-to-head.
Facing off against him will be Corey Seager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the ninth rookie to participate in the Derby, and the second in as many years from the Dodgers, following in the footsteps of teammate Joc Pederson a year ago. Seager’s 17 home runs thus far in 2016 are the fewest among the eight in the field, though his average distance of 399 feet is actually sixth.
With his father reportedly readying to pitch to him, Seager will still have his work cut out for him, at least based on his home run spray chart for the first half of the season. He uses the whole field, which is great in actual game situations, but could work against him in the Derby. Only six of his home runs have gone down the lines, while three have gone out to straight away right field, and eight have been to center and the alleys.
Advantage: Trumbo
Next: The defending champ.
#2 Todd Frazier vs. #7 Carlos Gonzalez
After riding a wave of hometown support to the title in last year’s Home Run Derby in Cincinnati, Todd Frazier, now of the Chicago White Sox, will be looking to join Ken Griffey, Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as the only champs to repeat. Second only to Trumbo in the field with 22 home runs, Frazier defeated Pederson in the finals of last season’s event.
Though his average home run distance of 391 feet is last among the eight participants, Frazier’s swing is tailor-made for this ballpark. Of his 22 bombs, 14 have been pulled down the left field line, with another three being hit to straight away left. His longest homer of the season clocks in at 427 feet, so the chance for bonus time may be limited, but Frazier showed last year that he can swing it quick and knock balls out of the park in bunches.
Opposing the defending champ will be Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. CarGo has hit 18 home runs to this point, and according to StatCast owns three of the hardest dozen hit in all of MLB. He averages 422 feet and 105.5 mph per homer, and may be the one lefty with the necessary power to overcome the deeper right field dimensions.
Much like Seager, Gonzalez has used all fields throughout the season, with only seven of his home runs really being pulled. He has hit eight to the alleys and center field, which in San Diego will make for an uphill climb. Gonzalez’s longest homer of the year thus far traveled 459 feet, but that came at the mile-high altitude of Coors Field.
Advantage: Frazier
Next: Hometown proud.
#3 Adam Duvall vs. #6 Wil Myers
Has there been a bigger out-of-nowhere performance in the first half of the season than the one the Cincinnati Reds’ Adam Duvall has put together? The left fielder who had a grand total of 56 big league games under his belt entering the season is currently third in the National League with 22 home runs. With an average distance of 401 feet and an average exit velocity of 103.5 mph, Duvall has the kind of pop to give the Reds two Derby titles in a row.
Half of Duvall’s home runs have been pulled either down the line or to straight away left field, and he’s shown the strength to go the other way as well, hitting five either down the line or straight away to right. With a season-long bomb of 457 feet, he is right up there with the best in the field, though his last homer came on June 29th.
For Duvall to pull off the dark horse win, he’ll have to go through the host team’s crowd as he squares off against the Padres’ Wil Myers. The former American League Rookie of the Year has jacked 19 home runs in 2016, including 12 since the end of May, and 13 of those have come at Petco Park.
Myers has averaged 401 feet and nearly 105 mph on his homers this season, and clearly knows how to hit them in his home ballpark. He has used the lines and both straight away right and left for 13 of his home runs this season, and 11 of those have come at Petco. With the hometown crowd behind him and a hot streak of late, Myers has a solid chance of replicating Frazier’s run from a season ago.
Advantage: Myers
Next: G and Robbie.
#4 Robinson Cano vs. #5 Giancarlo Stanton
Robinson Cano has been there before, winning the Derby in 2011 as a member of the New York Yankees (though he finished last in both 2012 and 2013). Now Cano, the first Seattle Mariners representative since 2003, is experiencing a renaissance season, having belted 20 home runs with an average distance of 395 feet and an average exit velocity of 104.5 mph.
A look at the dimensions of Petco Park and Cano’s home run spray chart, though, makes it appear that he will have a tough time advancing beyond the first round. While 11 of his home runs have been hit either down the right field line or to straight away right, several would be wall-scrapers in San Diego. Of his 20 longballs, six would have been borderline had they been hit at Petco.
The park isn’t the only obstacle for Cano, though, as he will square off against Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins. Stanton is the undisputed StatCast king, owning the top five and six of the top twelve hardest hit balls in all of MLB as well as the second-longest. His 19 homers have averaged nearly 420 feet and an exit velocity just under 110 mph. He is also riding a hot streak that has seen four homers in July thanks to back-to-back two-jack nights against the Mets.
Stanton, like Frazier, was not named to the All-Star Game, but his awesome power makes it almost imperative that he be involved in the Derby. Six of his 19 home runs have been pulled either down the left field line or to straight away left, and another four have gone to the left field alley. Each one would have been a no-doubter at Petco, even with the alleys being so deep. With a season-long bomb of 475 feet, those 30 seconds of bonus time are basically assured.
Advantage: Stanton
Next: And the winner is…
Based on this author’s predictions, the semi-finals will feature the top-seeded Trumbo going head-to-head with hometown favorite Myers and the reigning champion Frazier up against Stanton, the murderer of baseballs. That should make for a lot of “Back, back, back, back…gone!” calls throughout the evening.
Myers will have the adrenaline and the raucous crowd, while Stanton is merely a beast among men, so I’ll predict that matchup for the final. Both players have hit 19 homers thus far in 2016, and both come in hot, having combined to hit 19 longballs since June 1st.
Handicapping a winner is probably impossible, but one statistic may hold the key: Myers has hit a home run at Petco Park in 4.8 percent of his plate appearances there (16 in 335 PAs), while Stanton nearly doubles that at 8.3 percent (5 in 60 PAs). Based on that (probably meaningless) nugget of information, Stanton gets the slight edge.
Next: Must-See MLB All-Star Game Storylines
More important than the winner on the field, though, will be the winners in each participant’s’ community. Derby sponsor T-Mobile will make a $1,000 donation for every home run hit with a regular ball, and $2,000 for every home run hit with a magenta ball, used during the bonus time. The entire charity pool will be donated to the winner’s local chapter of the Boys & Girls Club, and a local youth baseball initiative selected by the winner. The other participants will also receive $10,000 for a youth baseball initiative of their choosing.