MLB: Top NL MVP Candidates of the First Half
At the MLB season’s unofficial midpoint, which players are leading the pack in the National League MVP race?
Although the All-Star break doesn’t line up perfectly with the middle of the season, fans and writers alike tend to consider it the midway point of the season. Because it is the midway point of the season, we can examine some important questions about how the rest of the season will go. One of the most important questions is who will walk away from the season with the Most Valuable Player trophy in either league. Right now we’re going to focus solely on the MVP candidates from the National League.
The National League is stacked with very good players, so I had to stretch the top contenders from top 5 to top 6 because I just couldn’t leave one of the players out. Even then, I didn’t include pitcher Clayton Kershaw, who was one of the best players in all of baseball until an injury sent him to the disabled list. The injury hurts his MVP chances, but it appears as though he will still have a chance at the Cy Young coming out of the injury.
Of the six players that I’ve deemed serious candidates for the NL MVP, four are on either the Nationals or Cubs. While one may argue that the term “most valuable” means that one singular player is the most valuable on his team rather than just the player of most value in the league, I tend to believe in the latter statement. Being one of multiple very good players on a team does not diminish the value of a player; therefore, the Nationals and Cubs repeats are completely valid candidates.
* This list is in no particular order, which was done to emphasize the importance of second half performance. None of these six players has by any means separated themselves from the pack, and none of the six should leave us shocked if they win.
Next: Young Third Base Star
Nolan Arenado broke onto the scene two years ago with his impressive play defensively combined with his ability at the plate. He’s been a consistent hitter since his 2014 sophomore season in the Majors, and 2016 has been no different for the young star.
He’s flashed the leather this season, just as he has in every other professional season; his defense is one of his greatest assets on the hot corner. I prefer to avoid defensive stats because they are so uncertain, but Arenado’s reputation proceeds him. It is well-known among scouts, writers, and fans that he knows how to handle himself in the field. In case you need more tangible proof, here’s a highlight from this week in which Arenado made a very difficult play look pretty easy.
Not only is Arenado’s glove plus plus, he knows how to handle the bat incredibly well too. His first half numbers compare well to any of the guys on this list. In 2016 he is hitting .290/.363/.577 with 23 home runs and 70 driven in. Those numbers are very good for the first half of the season, on pace to get over 40 home runs and 100 RBI.
If you prefer advanced metrics, those love Arenado as well. His ISO is one of the best in the league at .287 while his wOBA sits at .391. He has one of the weakest wRC+ of the guys on this list, but it is still a very good 128. He’s also striking out at a low rate (13.7%) while walking at a pretty good quip (10.0%).
Arenado has been stellar defensively as he has his entire career. At the plate, he has patience and good vision which leads to his excellence on base percentage. He’s hitting home runs and driving in runs while limiting his strikeouts, which is incredibly valuable.
Next: Defending Champion
In 2015 Bryce Harper lit the league on fire on his way to his first career MVP Award. In 2016 he hasn’t been as good (nearly impossible to do), and he’s arguably not even been the best hitter on his team. Despite his struggles this season, I think it’s entirely unfair to not include the player that still holds the crown as best hitter in the National League in an MVP candidacy list.
Bryce Harper can still very much compete for the NL MVP in the second half of the season. No single player has separated himself from the pack, and Harper has managed to still have a very well above average season. When Bryce Harper slumps, he is an All-Star outfielder and better than almost every player in the league. Another note about Bryce Harper slumps: they probably won’t last very long.
For all of those reasons I have included Harper in the list. He’s hitting .259/.401/.497 with 19 home runs and 52 RBI. A common strategy to combat his incredible hitting has been pitching around, which has led to his very high walk rate (19.0%). Because his walk rate is so high, he is one of very few players that can say they walk more than they strike out (his strikeout rate is 15.9%).
His advanced metrics show that he’s not only having an already good season, but also that he will probably come out of his slump. His ISO is .238 with a .372 wOBA and 131 wRC+.
Harper hasn’t distanced himself from the pack like he did early in the season last year, and in some ways he is lagging behind the group in 2016. His relative struggles to his 2015 season shouldn’t last long, and I have no doubt that he will make his presence known in the MVP discussion during the second half of the season.
Next: Another Nationals Star
Daniel Murphy is hitting the pants off of the ball in 2016. Many thought his hot postseason with the Mets last year was a fluke, which made some teams wary of signing him. The Nationals hit the jackpot by signing a player who led their divisional rival to a World Series the season before. Up to this point in the season he has not only continued his dominance from the 2015 postseason, but he may be playing even better.
Right now he’s hitting .349/.388/.593 with 16 home runs and 64 RBI. His average is the number that pops the most, but his slugging percentage is also very good. He’s hitting the ball a lot and often for extra bases.
His .244 ISO is very good along with a .409 wOBA and 157 wRC+. His offensive value has been incredibly important to the Nationals, who have struggled at times to find offense outside of Bryce Harper. He isn’t walking at a great rate (5.0%), but he refuses to strike out as shown by his 10.6% strikeout rate.
The addition of Murphy to the Nationals has been crucial to them once again leading the NL East division. His numbers speak volumes about the type of season he has been having. He has hit so well that he’s one of the best hitters, if not the best, on a team that includes Bryce Harper. We need not even worry about Murphy’s casual lapses defensively, because his bat provides so much value.
Next: Handy Carpenter
Matt Carpenter has played a super utility role for the Cardinals this season, playing every infield position but shortstop and spending a majority of his time in the outfield. His versatility in the field is incredibly valuable to any time, but his bat has been one of the best in the National League. In shocking fashion, he has basically outhit even the best players.
Cardinals fans will point out that Carpenter has always been good, but a season like this is nearly unprecedented in his career. He’s had a couple very good seasons, including 2015 where he was just a highlight on a very good team. This season he has established himself as the Cardinals’ best player.
He’s hitting .298/.420/.568 with 14 home runs and 53 driven in. His line is quite impressive, just like any other member of this list. By digging deeper, we can see that his ISO of .270, .414 wOBA, and 162 wRC+ is among the best of the members on this list and in the National League.
The Cardinals are not having the type of season we have become accustomed to during the last decade or so. They have young players like Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, and Aledmys Diaz trying to make their mark on the team. Matt Carpenter has been the veteran presence in the lineup that has kept the Cardinals together and within striking distance of the Wild Card.
Next: Rival Rizzo
Anthony Rizzo has been a star for years now and one of the first young studs to join the Cubs. Although the veteran role is reserved for Zobrist and Ross on the Cubs, Rizzo has made his mark in that sense as well. As one of the longest tenured players on the roster he plays the role of leader in the clubhouse and on the field.
He’s a pretty good defensive first basemen, and certainly won’t hurt you in that aspect. At the plate he’s incredible, hitting .290/.410/.581 with 21 home runs and 63 RBI. His advanced numbers are among the best because of his .290 ISO, .413 wOBA, and 160 wRC+. His buddy Kris Bryant has received a lot of attention for the season he’s having, but Rizzo has absolutely hit the crud out of the ball. Together they provide a lethal 1, 2 punch in the middle of the Cubs lineup.
Oftentimes when two great players are playing this well on the same team they get overlooked for the MVP award. I hope that doesn’t happen for Rizzo this season. He’s been such a steady player at first base for the Cubs who have been through the highest of highs and some terrible lows this season. He slumped for the first month of the season, but since the middle of May he has lit the league on fire.
Chances are that Rizzo continues to hit this way in the second half and helps the Cubs get back to the team they were early in the season. If they are able to return to the dominance of April and May, Rizzo will be one of the biggest reasons they do so.
Next: The Other Cub
Kris Bryant was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2015, but he has shown no signs of a sophomore slump. In fact, he’s played even better than he did in 2015. He’s improved his swing and tried to strike out less than he did in his first season.
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Bryant, like Carpenter, has incredible defensive versatility; Bryant’s versatility is actually better than Carpenter’s. Bryant has played at least an inning a third base, first base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions. Not only has he played all of those positions, but he has excelled at all of them. Clearly he is extremely athletic and uses that to his advantage.
At the plate Bryant has somehow been more impressive, hitting .280/.379/.575 with 25 home runs and 64 RBI. His 25 home runs so far this season is just one shy of his 2015 total. The increase in an already great power tool has yielded a .295 ISO. His .400 wOBA and 157 wRC+ are both very very good as well.
Although his strikeout rate remains high (22.9%), he has lowered it a lot from his 2015 rate (30.6%). As he continues to mature that will only improve. His new approach at the plate has allowed him to not only make more contact but to also make better contact, thus leading to more home runs and hard hit balls. His hard hit rate is up to 41.7% from 37.5% last season.
Next: Top AL MVPs of First Half
Bryant’s incredible athletic ability in the field combined with his new approach to hit the ball hard has led to great success so far this season. If he can remain consistent in the second half of the season he may be the NL MVP favorite, but the other guys won’t go out without a fight.