Minor League Notes: Red Sox, Rangers prospects staying hot

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This week’s minor league notes column provides updates on prospects featured earlier in the season, including prospects in the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox organizations.

Teoscar Hernandez, an outfielder in the Houston Astros organization, has been overshadowed by shortstop Alex Bregman’s rise through the minors. Most players have. Bregman is playing in Triple-A even though he’s barely a year removed from being drafted. He pummeled the Double-A Texas League for 62 games and he thrived under the bright lights at the All-Star Futures Game.

Hernandez has been far more anonymous during his minor league career. He is the Astros’ No. 23 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and signed for just $20,000 in 2011. He spent parts of three seasons in Double-A before earning his own promotion to Triple-A on June 30.

Even though Hernandez’s climb up the minor league ladder has been slow, he’s shown the ability to adapt and raise his playing level. In fact, given time, he’s proven to be an above average hitter at (almost) every level of the minors.

In the Dominican Summer League in 2011, he hit .274 with a .360 on-base percentage and .487 slugging percentage, good for a 141 weighted runs created plus (wRC+).
At the Midwest League in 2013, he slashed .271/.328/.435 with 13 home runs for a 114 wRC+.
In 2014, in 96 games in the California League, he slashed .294/.376/.550 for a 137 wRC+.
After struggling to a .233/.282/.381 line in Double-A from the end of 2014 through the 2015 season, Hernandez rebounded with a .305/.384/.437 line to start this season, which put his wRC+ at 137.

He hasn’t slowed down since jumping to Triple-A, as he’s hit .375/.405/.725 in 10 games. He’s hit two home runs since the promotion.

How he plays once games resume after the All-Star break is up in the air. Entering the 2016 season, Hernandez’s batting average on balls in play was .325; in 2016 his BABIP is .364. He struck out in 24.4 percent of plate appearances entering 2016, but his strikeout rate this season is 16.5 percent. If he keeps it down, he should continue to see success.

In this week’s minor league notes, we check in on how prospects are progressing since we first highlighted them. On to Triple-A! (All stats entering Tuesday.)

Next: Triple-A

Jesse Winker, outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
First look: Through May 12 Winker was hitting .303 with a .405 OBP and was seventh in the International League in walk rate (15.3 percent of plate appearances). He was slugging just .394.

Since then: Over the next month, Winker was an on-base metronome, getting on base at a .352 clip while slugging just .333. He was showing signs of heating up, hitting .371/.429/.486 in the first 10 games of June before a June 12 wrist injury sidelined him. He has been rehabbing in the Arizona League over the past week.

Orlando Arcia, shortstop, Milwaukee Brewers
First look: Through April 26, Arcia was following up his outstanding 2015 season with a .313/.351/.448 slash line, further supporting the belief that he is part of an ever-increasing wave of talented shortstops.

Since then: Arcia has slowed down some, but he’s still going to garner serious consideration for a promotion when rosters expand in September. He’s slashed .259/.322/.396 since April 28, and part of that may be that he’s hitting 52.7 percent of his batted balls on the ground compared to just 43.2 percent last season.

Br aden Shipley, pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
First look: Shipley had a 3.35 earned run average, 3.07 fielding independent pitching and 4.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio through eight starts, the last of which came on May 16.

Since then: Over his next 10 starts, Shipley had a 4.22 ERA and 4.23 FIP. His home runs per nine innings jumped to 0.70 from 0.19 and he stopped getting ground outs: through those first eight starts he got 1.70 groundouts for every air out, but now his season rate is 1.33, which is still high but not what made him dominant early in the season.

Next: Double-A

Kyle Freeland, pitcher, Colorado Rockies
First Look: Through four starts, Freeland had a 1.13 ERA and was holding opponents to a .222 average.

Since then: Freeland didn’t experience the same success over his next 10 starts. He had a 4.90 ERA and 5.08 FIP over those 10 outings and saw his walk rate jump to 3.08 per nine innings. The Rockies still promoted him to Triple-A on June 25 and he has a 2.93 FIP in three starts. Most importantly, his walk rate is back to 1.89 per nine innings.

Jorge Alfaro, catcher, Philadelphia Phillies
First Look: Alfaro missed nearly a month due to injury but was slashing .407/.419/.610 in 14 games through May 14.

Since then: Alfaro has hit 10 home runs and has slashed .260/.310/.464. Those numbers don’t jump off the screen, but for a catcher that’s plenty of production. In fact, it’s great, because coupled with his defensive value, he is one reason the Phillies are the farthest along on their rebuild. According to Baseball Prospectus, Alfaro has saved 4.9 runs due to his pitch framing and 1.2 runs due to his throwing, both among the best in professional baseball (majors and minors included).

Ronald Guzman, first baseman, Texas Rangers
First look: Guzman was sixth in the Texas League in BABIP (.394) and was slashing .331/.399/.543 through May 17.

Since then: When I first mentioned them, Guzman and his teammate Ryan Cordell were tearing up the league and I said Cordell was more likely to stay hot. Cordell has shown his power—he is tied for second in the league with 17 home runs—but I was wrong. Guzman has slashed a cool .273/.335/.442 for a 119 wRC+ and has hit six home runs since we last saw him. Cordell has slashed .207/.263/.367 with seven home runs. Now Guzman is third in the league with an .849 on-base plus slugging.

Next: Class A Advanced

Brent Honeywell, pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
First look: Through four starts, Honeywell had a 0.73 ERA and an outlandish 13.0 K/BB.

Since then: Honeywell has been solid, but not quite as dominant. He had a 3.75 K/BB, 3.76 ERA and 3.89 FIP in six starts, but an unusual 1.37 home runs per nine innings. According to StatCorner, Honeywell’s fly ball and line drive rates were up 9.4 and 5.9 points, respectively, from last season. Part of that may have been due to arm tenderness which caused him to miss more than a month. He made his Double-A debut Monday and pitched five innings and allowed two runs on seven hits with five strikeouts.

Travis Demeritte, second baseman, Texas Rangers
First look: Through his first 12 games, Demeritte was slashing .313/.382/.813 with six home runs.

Since then: The walk rate has gone up a tad and the strikeout rate has gone down a bit as well, but a 33.1 K% doesn’t bode well for success at higher levels of the minors. Overall he’s slashed .246/.332/.504 and hit 14 home runs. He also started at second base for the U.S. team in the Futures Game and went 0-for-1 with a walk.

Yoan Moncada, second baseman, Boston Red Sox
First look: Moncada had a 174 wRC+ and was slashing .322/.449/.517 with 21 stolen bases through May 13.

Since then: Moncada was the star of the Futures Game, hitting a home run and making an impressive catch to lead the World team over the U.S. He hit .291/.403/.473 with a 142 wRC+ from May 14 through June 19, when he was promoted to Double-A. He’s hitting .328/.366/.657 with five home runs in 71 plate appearances in Double-A. Interestingly, his BB% has plummeted to 4.2 percent from 15.8 percent in the Carolina League.

Next: Class A

LaMonte Wade, outfielder, Minnesota Twins
First look: Wade was hitting .358/.413/.604 with one home run through April 20. He drew six walks in that span.

Since then: Holy cow, does this man know how to get on base. From April 21 through June 19, Wade had a .403 OBP and a 19.2 BB%. Even though he hasn’t played a game in the Midwest League since then, he still leads the league in walks per strikeout (1.62) while the player in second place is at 1.15. He’s slashed .343/.385/.429 in 10 games since a promotion to Class A Advanced.

More from Call to the Pen

Austin Allen, catcher, San Diego Padres
First look: Allen was slashing a torrid .509/.567/.667 through his first 16 games.

Since then: Allen has definitely fallen back to earth. He’s slashed .249/.298/.373 since that break-neck pace, but he’s also hitting just .282 on balls in play. He’s only struck out in 18.3 percent of plate appearances over that span, so he’s not hurting himself. Better luck on balls in play will help, but he’s still slashing a solid .303/.358/.434 on the season and homered in two straight games.

Phil Bickford, pitcher, San Francisco Giants
First look: Bickford was sixth in the South Atlantic League in strikeout rate (11.08 per nine innings) and held a 3.41 ERA and 2.20 FIP through six starts.

Next: Should Phillies move Hellickson?

Since then: Bickford has been excellent. Over his next five starts, he allowed just six runs in 28.1 innings for a 1.91 ERA and 2.79 FIP. Then he was promoted to the California League and made his debut on June 19, and through three starts he has a 1.59 ERA and 2.36 FIP while striking out 13.24 batters per nine innings. He also tossed a scoreless inning in the Futures Game, striking out two.

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