In considering why baseballs are suddenly flying out of the park at a rate nearly unmatched in baseball history, I believe we can eliminate PED use. For one thing, there is much stronger testing now. There was no testing for PED use prior to 2003, so PED use is more likely to have been a factor in the jump in HR/BIP from 1992 to 1994. With today’s testing policy, it is much less likely to be a factor.
A more important reason, in my opinion, that PED use can be eliminated as a factor is that the jump has happened so quickly. In fact, it isn’t just the first half of this season. This goes back to the second half of 2015. Here are the monthly HR/BIP rates for 2015 and how those months rank historically:
3.4%–April (21st-highest April rate ever)
3.7%–May (11th-highest May rate ever)
3.6%–June (20th-highest June rate ever)
3.7%–July (17th-highest July rate ever)
4.1%–August (3rd-highest August rate ever)
4.2%–September (highest September rate ever)
Here are the monthly HR/BIP rates for 2016:
4.0%–April (5th-highest April rate ever)
4.3%–May (2nd-highest May rate ever)
4.7%–June (highest June rate ever)
4.7%–July (highest July rate ever)
This jump in home runs began last summer and it happened quickly. After four months in which the home run rates were well within the standards of the previous decade, there was a sudden and significant increase in August and September. Over the last six months of baseball going back to August of 2015, we’ve seen three months with the highest HR/BIP rates ever, one month with the second-highest, another with the third-highest, and one with the fifth-highest. It would be ludicrous to think that PED use was responsible because we would have to believe that a significant number of players suddenly found a way to beat PED testing. I just don’t think it’s a plausible explanation.
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