MLB: 10 Bold Predictions for the Second Half

Cleveland Rides a Big 4 and a Major Deadline Deal to the Best Record in the AL

The Cleveland Indians have been perhaps the biggest surprise in all of baseball in the first half of the 2016 season. After finishing last year 81-80 and 13.5 games behind the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central, they now hold a four-game lead in the division and are closing in on the best record in all of the American League.

The Indians rode one of the best rotations in the game to being one of the premier clubs in MLB. Danny Salazar has been the team’s best and most consistent starter, and is one of the favorites to win the AL Cy Young be season’s end. Corey Kluber has had his rough spots, but is still been a very good pitcher for most of the year, Carlos Carrasco is back in the rotation after suffering an early-season injury and Josh Tomlin has been solid as the number five starter.

But the real surprise has been the emergence of Trevor Bauer. The former third overall selection was relegated to the bullpen prior to the start of the season, but has rebounded in a big way. He currently owns a 3.30 ERA, striking out over eight hitters per nine innings, and he will only continue to improve in the second half. Bauer is just 25 years old and is starting to come into his own as you can see by the reduced walk rate and the decreased number of home runs he’s given up. He has the stuff to make the Indians rotation a big four instead of a big three, and he will do just that in the second half.

Cleveland has been skeptical of adding big names at the deadline in the past, but they have a clear need in the outfield and the team to make the front office want to go all in for a World Series run. There are many quality outfielders on the market, such as Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun and Josh Reddick to name a few. The Indians have the wherewithal to acquire one of these players and will make one of the biggest trades of the deadline, something that they haven’t been keen about doing in the past.

This will all lead to the Indians finishing the season as the best in the American League and a strong World Series contender.

Next: Yankees Trade Chips

The Bronx Bombers Will Trade BOTH Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman

The New York Yankees are in the ultimate MLB purgatory. They have many aging veterans that still have to be paid a lot of money, but aren’t getting the type of production from them that they expected. Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Chase Headley do not excite you like they used to, and it’s showing up in the standings.

The Yanks currently have a record of 44-44, sitting 7.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East, but are just 5.5 games down in the Wild Card race. So while it may be nice to dream about competing to the end for a playoff spot, New York just doesn’t have the team to do so, and Brian Cashman is finally starting to recognize it.

After being steadfast in the belief that his club could rebound in the early parts of the season, the Yankees general manager has been a little bit more open to the idea of selling come late July.

“I get it. I understand it. We’re not blind. But we also have to remain objective and, at the same time, recognize that some players are certainly capable of a lot more than what they’ve produced so far.

“There’s some time for them to prove that. If they don’t, there will be some interesting discussions to have internally and decisions will have to be made.”

(Quotes from New York Daily News)

Cashman will be forced to come to the belief that his team will not being making the playoffs this season, and will pivot toward moving not one, but two of the club’s biggest trade chips.

Andrew Miller may be the best player on the block, period. He still has two more years of control at the end of this year and is one of the best relief pitchers in the game. He’s been as dominant as ever, striking out an outstanding 15.8 batters per nine innings and posting an ERA of under 1.40. He should be able to fetch quite a hall.

Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees closer, will be on the move as well. Unlike Miller, he will be a free agent after this season. He hasn’t been as good this season, but would still close for pretty much every MLB team. Their are many continuing clubs in need of bullpen help that would love to add this hard throwing lefty.

New York needs to get younger and by trading away both Miller and Chapman, they will be able to build for the next great Yankees teams. Both will give the organization a couple more top prospects to add to their system, which is something that the Yankees need to embrace. It’s the smart thing to do and Cashman is wise enough to pull the trigger on trading two of his dominant relievers.

Next: Royals Outlook

The Reigning World Series Champs Will Stand Pat at the Deadline

The Kansas City Royals have been stricken by injuries for most of this season. Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Wade Davis and Lorenzo Cain have all been hit by the bug, which would make one think that the Royals would be in a much worse position than they are.

The current MLB champs have managed to stay above .500 and right in the mix of the Wild Card race, even with all the misfortunes that have come upon the club in 2016. Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez and Kelvin Herrera continue to be elite players at their positions. They’ve also had some unknown commodities like Paulo Orlando, Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert step in and produce some solid numbers in starting roles. But there is a real different feel toward this season than the magical teams of the past two years.

While they have won more than they’ve lost, Kansas City still sits in an unfavorable position. Their rotation is still not a strength of the club, their bullpen has not been as dominant as we’ve seen before and have had too many injuries and regressions on their roster to be a serious World Series contender. With that, this will lead the Royals to not make any improvements come August 1.

There have been many rumors that the Royals are looking for power hitting outfielders  like Jay Bruce and Josh Reddick. They also have holes in their starting rotation. This would make many people believe that they will make a move to help secure a playoff spot in the stretch run, but a combination of realistic expectations, a lacking farm system and struggles in July will cause the club to stand pat.

Kansas City does not have the farm system that they’ve had in the past couple seasons, especially after trading for Johnny Cueto at last year’s deadline. This will make the front office hesitant to do much in July. The club will also not make a big enough run coming up to the trade deadline to give the team’s management reason enough to make a deal. The club look to keep their farm system solid with the Royals needing to still pay Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer in a few offseasons.

Overall, call this a blip in the Royals dynasty, but things have just not gone right for the club this year and the team will look to hold onto their top prospects as they try to build for next season.

Next: The Mets Struggles

Injuries Force the the Mets into a Tailspin 

Like the Royals, the Mets have been struck by injuries as well, but they have been plagued exclusively to their starting rotation.

Coming into this season, New York was supposed to have one of the best young pitching staffs of all time. Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon did not seem fair to opposing lineups. However, things have not gone the way many thought it would for the Mets rotation.

The first sign of trouble was the early struggles of the Harvey. He started on Opening Day, but did not perform like an opening day starter in the first couple months of the baseball season. He struggled with his weight, mental issues and velocity, which culminated to a lack of production. While this is all bad, things have become much more dire in recent weeks.

We have learned that Matz and Syndergaard are dealing with bone spurs in their elbows. Since then, both have struggled to a degree and Matt Harvey has opted for surgery.

While Syndergaard and Matz will try and pitch through their ailments, the bone spurs will cause enough discomfort for them to fall off a bit statistically. The bold prediction is that at least one will have to call it a year at some point in the second half and it will cause somewhat of a tailspin as the Mets close the 2016 season.

New York does not have even close to a good enough offense to make up for these possible struggles in the starting staff, which will allow the Mets’ record to skew closer to .500 than a playoff spot. There are just too many questions for New York to finish much better than that. The Mets rotation is still as talented as ever, but the injuries will be too deflating to what looked like a promising start of the season.

Next: A Surprising NL Cy Young

Jose Fernandez will be the NL Cy Young Winner

When Clayton Kershaw went on the disabled list, it opened up the NL Cy Young race at least a little bit. Hey… these predictions are supposed to be bold.

The Dodgers ace was on his way to easily claiming the award for most of the first half as he was having possibly his finest start to a season of his career, however his recent injury could open things up to the rest of the field, and there are many great National League starting pitchers to choose from.

However, Jose Fernandez will the one to rise up from the group of elite starting pitchers. In addition to Kershaw, the Marlins ace will have to fight off the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta to claim the award. But he has the stuff and the results to make one think that he will be able to pull it off.

The 23-year-old has gone a bit unrecognized with the stable of great starting pitchers in the NL, but his numbers are in the same league as all of them. So far, Fernandez has an ERA in the mid-2.00s and his strikeout rate is at a career-high of 12.9 per nine innings. According to Fangraphs, his fly-ball percentage is at the lowest percentage it’s ever been for the big right-hander, currently sitting at 30 percent. He’s also only allowed seven long balls compared to other contenders who have given up double digit fingers so far this season, such as Max Scherzer (21), Madison Bumgarner (12) and Stephen Strasburg (11).

Fernandez has been spectacular in 2016 and is much closer statistically to his competition than many would think. As the Marlins continue to contend, Fernandez will continue to stay locked in. He’s also shown the ability to be durable this season, while many others have had trouble making starts every five days. At the very least, he will make it a closer race than many would have expected.

Next: Jose Altuve

Altuve Beats Out Trout, Machado and Ortiz for AL MVP

While this may not be as bold as picking Jose Fernandez to win the Cy Young, beating players in the class of Mike Trout, Manny Machado and David Ortiz would be quite the accomplishment for the 5’6” second baseman.

A four-time All-Star, Altuve has been among the league’s elite second basemen for some time now at just 26 years old, but he has entered a different level of play in 2016, mostly due to his increase in power.

Before this season, Altuve had not hit more than 15 home runs in a single year, and had only hit double digits long balls once in his career. However, the 2016 Jose Altuve has been a much different player at the plate this year. As of now, the Astros second baseman has hit 14 balls out of the park, making him likely to end the season with 20-25 homers. This may not seem like much compared to other AL MVP candidates, but it’s the value he provides in the other aspects of the game that will help him become the AL’s most valuable player.

Altuve is hitting .341 thus far and is getting on base at an impressive .413 clip. He leads the American League in batting average by nine points and is in the top four in the AL in getting on-base. He is also one of the better base stealers that the American League has to offer. He currently has swiped 23 bags, which ranks second in the AL.

Now Mike Trout might have the best all-around game and be the best player, but his team is going to be one of the worst in baseball. Manny Machado is strong in the field and at the plate, but Altuve is far outperforming him in multiple statistical categories and while David Ortiz will put up much higher power numbers and sit at around the same on-base percentage, he does not affect the game in as many ways as Houston’s scrappy second baseman.

The Astros are one of the hottest teams in the MLB at the moment, lead by Altuve. His all around game and the impact that he has on his club will give him the edge over the other more decorated and recognizable candidates.

Next: The Cubs Rebound

Chicago Regains Its Footing and Finishes Five Games Ahead of San Francisco and Washington

The Cubs started out the season so hot that many were wondering if they could beat the all-time record for wins in a season. However, things have gone a bit sour in Chicago in recent weeks.

While the Cubbies have been MLB’s best team for most of the year, they gave up that title to the San Francisco Giants just before the All-Star break. They have suffered injuries to many of their key contributors such as Dexter Fowler, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, among others, and have had to rely on some younger, more unproven players in the process. Their rotation has fallen off a little bit as well. Since having a combined ERA of below 3.00 for much of the beginning parts of the year, their starters have been a little shaky in the past few weeks. So is this just a blip in a great run for the 2016 Cubs or should there be real concern?

The Nationals and Giants are playing better baseball as of late, but the roster that the Cubs have will come back together in a big way in the second half, as they reclaim their spot as the best in the National League.

The Cubs have been thwarted by injuries, but there have been some positives to these misfortunes. Players like Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and other role players have shown that they can be counted on to produce as the season picks up again. The team should also be helped be the return of Dexter Fowler. This will shift Kris Bryant back to third and start to settle things down in Chicago.

Their rotation should also kick back into gear as Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Jason Hammel all have track records of doing well and are probably just victims of some fatigue going into the All Star break. Chicago is also likely to land a bullpen piece at the trade deadline, which is the main weakness of this ballclub. Their lineup is also stacked up and down the order with quality guys at pretty much every position. Not many teams offer the dynamic offensive attack that the NL Central leaders do.

The Cubs are young, hungry and now have something to prove with how things have transpired in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. They will show that they are still the favorites to take home a championship come season’s end, and that the late struggles in the first half will not define the club as the season continues on.

Next: The Unpredictable AL East

The Baltimore Orioles Hold Onto First Place in the AL East

Ever since before the 2016 season began, the AL East has been difficult to figure out. While there is an immense amount of quality in the division, every team had something that was holding them back from being the prohibitive favorite.

The Rays did not have the offense to compete, the Yankees were too old and couldn’t withstand the rigors of a 162 games, the Blue Jays were without David Price and the Red Sox and Orioles had a bevy of rotation questions.

Well, after more than one half of the year in the books, the AL East continues to be the most difficult division to prognosticate. Baltimore currently sits two games ahead of Toronto and Boston. While the Yankees, and even more so the Rays, have fallen out of the divisional race.

The O’s have one of the better power offenses the league has seen in a while with a great bullpen to boot. Boston is young and dynamic with the bats, while having critical veteran leadership. Toronto has probably been playing the best as of late and has the best rotation by far looking at the numbers out of three. However, while all these clubs have great strengths, there are the same glaring weaknesses that each started the season with.

With that, the Orioles still have the best odds to take the American League East in 2016. The Red Sox have improved their depth by adding Brad Ziegler and Aaron Hill. They have also made a major move to acquire all star, Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres as they try to address their starting rotation needs. Toronto also has a powerful offense like Baltimore, but has much better starting rotation.

So why the Orioles? Call it a gut feeling, but their offensive firepower and ability to close out games will be the deciding factor in them taking back the divisional crown. The Orioles are dangerous in every spot in the lineup, something that cannot be said about the Blue Jays or Red Sox. They also have the best closer in the MLB in Zach Britton, along with a premier bullpen that will be adding an All-Star in Darren O’Day when he comes back from injury later in the year.

The Red Sox have improved their chances with the trades, but while Pomeranz is having a great season, his numbers won’t be as good playing in the American League against much better offenses. The Blue Jays are a big threat being that they are the reigning champs of the division, but their lack of quality bullpen arms will lose them just enough games for Baltimore to barely hold onto the East late in September.

Next: National League Wild Cards

Marlins, Pirates In; Cardinals, Dodgers Out

The National League Wild Card race will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow as the second half of the MLB season kicks off. As of right now, there are five teams within 1.5 games of a wild card spot and it’s looking like it will be a close race to the end.

The Dodgers, Marlins and Mets are the three teamss at the top of the list with Cardinals sitting at one game back and the Pirates being only 1.5 games behind the pace. In a previous slide, it was mentioned that the Mets pitching injuries would force them out of the playoffs, which leaves us with four teams left to make the postseason without winning their division.

Even though the Los Angeles Dodgers may have Clayton Kershaw and a big payroll, and St. Louis exemplifies a winning MLB organization, Miami and Pittsburgh will be the ones that find themselves in the one-game playoff after the final regular season game is played.

The Marlins have surprised some with their play this season as they have a roster with many exceptional players. Miami has one of the best outfields in the game with Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton each bringing something different to the offense. Yelich is more of an on-base guy, Stanton has the power and Ozuna, believe it or not, has been the most well-rounded out of the three, making his first All-Star appearance of his career.

The club also has a solid infield with players like Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado and Derek Dietrich all having productive seasons. Miami has also strengthened their bullpen with the recent addition of Fernando Rodney. He makes a great bridge to closer A.J. Ramos.

The starting rotation is the major area that needs improvement. It goes without saying that Jose Fernandez is exceptional, but there really isn’t much insurance behind him. Wei-Yin Chen has flopped somewhat and their other starters are middling back-of-the-rotation pitchers. The Marlins have been connected with multiple starting pitchers on the trade market and should be expected to make a move on that front at some point this month.

The Pirates have rebounded from what looked like could have been a doomed season. The team sat under .500 for a couple of days, but is back to contending for the wild card as the second half begins. They will pull out a postseason spot because of the talent of their young starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is returning to the rotation this Sunday and he has the ability to continue to pitch well for the last two-and-a-half months of the season.

But Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow are two dominating starting pitchers that can have an immediate impact in the MLB. Both have unique stuff and will be forces in this league for many years to come. The rotation is supported by a dynamic outfield and a solid infield. Pittsburgh will be able to play consistent enough baseball to sneak into a wild card spot again in 2016.

The Cardinals have a lot of questions in terms of the depth of their starting pitching and their less than impressive bullpen. Los Angeles has a solid rotation behind Clayton Kershaw, but the team is a little too inconsistent at the plate to score enough runs to help those pitchers.

In an epic three-team race for the final spot, the young pitching, sound play and consistency of the Pittsburgh Pirates win out.

Next: It's an Even Year

The San Francisco Giants Will NOT Win the World Series

We have become accustomed to the Giants winning in even years, as they have done each of the last three times. With them boasting the best record at the All-Star break, it seems as if they are on the path to do it once again. However, it will not be meant to be in 2016.

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The Giants have everything you want from a contending baseball team. They have a spectacular front top the rotation made up of Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, which would look perfect in a postseason series. They have an experienced manager in Bruce Bochy with players who have been their before. They have a solid bullpen with the ability to improve on it at the trade deadline. They also have instilled fear in other teams with their postseason pedigree, but this will be the time that the even year streak is snapped, and why? Because there are simply too many other good teams that could win instead of the them.

The Nationals, Cubs, Rangers and Indians all represent good alternatives to be hoisting the World Series trophy come October. With the possible exception of Texas, depending on what moves they make in July, all of them have strong front of the rotations to compete with what the Giants throw out there in a seven game series. Each team has an offense that will be able to rival that of San Francisco’s. This Giants are not perfect, and they will have stiff competition come Fall.

We’ve all gotten so accustomed to the Giants winning titles that it is now bold to think they won’t win won in an even year. The Giants have one of the best teams in the game, but their streak is coming to an end. The reality is that winning at this rate is extremely difficult even for a great organization like San Francisco’s. The odds simply point to them exiting the postseason without a trophy in an even year for the first time since 2008, even with how likely it seems at this moment.

Next: MLB's Top First Half Moments

What are your bold predictions for the second half? Share your thoughts in the comments below.