MLB: Five Hitters Likely to Hit Worse in the Second Half
There are currently 20 players with an OPS at least .100 higher than their rest-of-season projection. I think these five are the most likely to hit worse in the second half.
As exciting as it is when a player on your favorite team gets off to an incredibly good start, it’s always sensible to temper expectations. Many players have great first halves only to return to their expected level of performance in the second half. This is the nature of the beast. Players at the top of the leaderboards in the first half tend to do worse in the second half. Players at the bottom tend to do better (unless they are so bad that they lose playing time). Regression is a powerful force.
I used statistics from last year to look specifically at in-season regression to the mean. At roughly the one-quarter point of the 2015 season (May 25th), I divided hitters into three groups based on how far above their preseason projection they were in OPS. The three groups were labeled the Hot Starters, the Predictables, and the Cold Starters.
The Hot Starters group had a preseason OPS projection of .727. Through May 25th, this group of hitters had a combined .864 OPS, which was +.137 higher than expected.
The Predictables group had a preseason OPS projection of .730. Through May 25th, this group had a combined .736 OPS, which was +.006 higher than expected.
The Cold Starters were projected for a .751 OPS and had a .638 OPS through May 25th, which was -.113 worse than expected.
I then found the rest-of-season projections for each of these groups. With the additional information, the Hot Starters projected OPS went from .727 in the preseason to .741 for the rest-of-the season. The Predictables didn’t see much change, going from a .730 preseason projection to a .729 rest-of-season projection. The Cold Starters saw their projection drop from .751 in the preseason to .740 for the rest-of-season.
The final step was to look at how each of these groups did after May 25th. All three groups hit better than projected. This is due to the increase in offense that MLB experienced in the second half last year. The Hot Starters group did hit better than the other two groups. They were projected for a .741 OPS over the rest of the season and actually had an OPS of .767 (+.026). The Predictables were projected for a .729 OPS and actually had an OPS of .746 (+.017). The Cold Starters were projected for a .740 OPS and actually had an OPS of .754 (+.014).
There was a slight trend that players off to a hot start were able to outperform their updated projections by more than the players who started slowly or the players who hit about as expected, but the effect was small when you consider that all groups hit better over the remainder of the season. The difference between the Hot Starters and Cold Starters was .012 of OPS.
As for the individual players, I found that 82% of the Hot Starters hit worse after the one-quarter point of the season. The Predictables group was close to 50-50, with 48% improving and 52% doing worse. The Cold Starters saw 78% improve and 22% get worse. The general trend shows that hot starters cool down and cold starters heat up.
With all of this in mind, here are the 20 hitters with the biggest difference between their current OPS and their projected OPS for the rest of the season (from the Fangraphs Depth Charts). These are the guys who are the most likely candidates to hit worse in the second half.
Current OPS, Projected OPS, (Difference)—Player
- .983 OPS, .800 OPS, (-.183)—Jake Lamb
- 108 OPS, .935 OPS (-.173)—David Ortiz
- .985 OPS, .823 OPS (-.162)—Daniel Murphy
- .918 OPS, .757 OPS (-.161)—Wilson Ramos
- .916 OPS, .758 OPS (-.158)—Aledmys Diaz
- .988 OPS, .845 OPS (-.143)—Matt Carpenter
- .926 OPS, .788 OPS (-.138)—Jackie Bradley, Jr.
- .899 OPS, .764 OPS (-.135)—Ian Desmond
- .955 OPS, .825 OPS (-.130)—Jose Altuve
- .955 OPS, .825 OPS (-.130)—Yoenis Cespedes
- .888 OPS, .762 OPS (-.126)—DJ LeMahieu
- .923 OPS, .804 OPS (-.119)—Michael Saunders
- 016 OPS, .902 OPS (-.114)—Josh Donaldson
- .862 OPS, .750 OPS (-.112)—Gregory Polanco
- .910 OPS, .798 OPS (-.112)—Brendan Moss
- .881 OPS, .772 OPS (-.109)—Dexter Fowler
- .893 OPS, .787 OPS (-.106)—Marcell Ozuna
- .888 OPS, .787 OPS (-.101)—Carlos Beltran
- .874 OPS, .773 OPS (-.101)—Trevor Story
- .806 OPS, .706 OPS (-.100)—Jonathan Villar
History tells us that most of these guys will hit worse from this point forward. That’s not a knock on them, it’s just the way things work. Some will hit worse but still be very good hitters. Some will hit worse and fall to below-average hitters. That being said, I think some are more likely to fall than others. For example, Daniel Murphy has a hard hit percentage of 38.2% this year compared to a career mark of 29%. He had a terrific second half last year, an amazing run in the playoffs, and has continued to rake in 2016. I still don’t think he’ll keep up a .985 OPS, but I believe he has a better chance to outhit his rest-of-season projection than most players on this list. Other players on this list who have a hard hit percentage this year that is much higher than during their careers include Matt Carpenter, Jose Altuve, Yoenis Cespedes, DJ LeMahieu, Michael Saunders, and Josh Donaldson. I’m still high on all of these guys.
Other players, I’m not so high on, so we’ll take a closer look at the five players from this list of 20 who I think are most likely to hit worse from this point forward.
Next: The Cardinals surprising shortstop
Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals
.315/.380/.536, .915 OPS, .329 BABIP—Current stats
.315/.380/.536, .915 OPS, .329 BABIP—Career stats
.272/.326/.432, .758 OPS, .303 BABI—Projection
Before making his big league debut with the Cardinals this year, Aledmys Diaz had hit .270/.321/.429 in two minor league seasons spent mostly in AA. In the first half of his first season in the Major Leagues, Diaz is doing everything better than he did in the minor leagues. As you can imagine, this is unusual and not likely to continue.
One of the more interesting statistics for Diaz this year has been his 21 infield hits. He has an infield hit percentage of 18.6%, which is the best in baseball. The league average is 6.2%. If Diaz had a league average infield hit percentage, his BABIP would drop from .329 to .272.
Diaz was a surprise starter at shortstop for the Cardinals at the start of the year because of the spring training injury to incumbent Jhonny Peralta. Diaz got off to a blazing hot start. He was hitting .423/.453/.732 at the end of April and was still in the .370s in mid-May.
Through his first 44 games, Diaz hit .352/.386/.599. He has cooled down since, which was expected, but has still hit .281/.374/.477 over his last 44 games and he’s done that with a .303 BABIP. He’s also held on to the shortstop position, with Peralta moving to third base when he came off the DL and Matt Carpenter playing second base. Kolten Wong was the odd man out and was sent to the minors.
Carpenter is now on the DL, so Wong is back at second base and Diaz continues to man the shortstop position. This will continue to be the defensive alignment as long as Matt Carpenter is on the DL. Carpenter should be back at some point in August. If Diaz continues to hit, he’ll stay at short, Peralta will stick at third, and Carpenter will play second. If Diaz slows down and Wong starts to hit better, Diaz could lose some playing time in the second half.
Next: The emerging outfielder
Jackie Bradley, Jr., Boston Red Sox
.296/.378/.548, .926 OPS, .342 BABIP—Current stats
.238/.317/.409, .725 OPS, .305 BABIP—Career stats
.264/.341/.446, .788 OPS, .326 BABIP—Projection
Jackie Bradley, Jr. has had an interesting career. Going back to 2014, when he first starting getting somewhat regular playing time, here are his monthly OPS marks, with plate appearances:
.716 OPS, 90 PA—March/April 2014
.490 OPS, 94 PA—May 2014
.550 OPS, 87 PA—June 2014
.672 OPS, 77 PA—July 2014
.348 OPS, 39 PA—August 2014
.056 OPS, 36 PA—Sep/October 2014
Did not play—March/April 2015
.154 OPS, 13 PA—May 2015
.641 OPS, 22 PA—June 2015
.282 OPS, 11 PA—July 2015
1.163 OPS, 91 PA—August 2015
.739 OPS, 118 PA—Sep/October 2015
.807 OPS, 89 PA—March/April 2016
1.175 OPS, 114 PA—May 2016
.805 OPS, 102 PA—June 2016
.806 OPS, 39 PA—July 2016
Acknowledging that months are arbitrary endpoints (but easy to look up), over the last 15 months of playing time, Bradley has had two HUGE months (August 2015 and May 2016), eight bad months, and five months with an OPS between .716 and .807. This season, he’s been steady in the .800-ish range except for that big May. His rest-of-season projection is for a .788 OPS. This .800-ish OPS version of Jackie Bradley, Jr. is likely the Jackie Bradley, Jr. we will see in the second half.
Next: The reclamation project
Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers
.322/.375/.524, .899 OPS, .402 BABIP—Current stats
.269/.318/.433, .751 OPS, .329 BABIP—Career stats
.265/.322/.442, .764 OPS, .333 BABIP—Projection
Before this season, Ian Desmond’s best year with the bat was in 2012, when he hit .292/.335/.511 with the Washington Nationals. He was 26 years old at the time and looked to be the “king of the world,” like Leonardo DiCaprio in the middle of the movie Titanic. Then he got progressively worse over the next three seasons, bottoming out with a .233/.290/.384 batting line last year. Like Leonardo DiCaprio at the end of Titanic, Desmond needed a life preserver to salvage his season, but it never came.
After three straight years of declining production, Desmond had few suitors in the off-season. He rejected a qualifying offer that would have paid him $16 million to stay with the Nationals and ultimately signed a 1-year, $8 million deal with the Texas Rangers. He played left field early in the year before taking over in center field for good in early May. More importantly, he’s on pace for the best season of his career at the dish, aiming at career highs in almost everything.
Despite his great start, Desmond’s rest-of-season projection is just slightly higher than his career batting line. His walk and strikeout rates are similar to his career rates. The one huge red flag is that .402 BABIP, which is .073 higher than his career rate and .066 higher than his career-best BABIP of .336 in 2013. A .402 BABIP has nowhere to go but down. When it comes down, so will Desmond’s gaudy stats.
Speaking of BABIP, Desmond LOVES hitting at Globe Life Park in Arlington. He has a ridiculous .459 BABIP at home, where he’s hitting .376/.414/.594. Now, it is well known that Texas is a good hitter’s park but that is absurd. On the road, Desmond is hitting .271/.340/.459, which is much more reasonable.
Next: A trade target?
Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
.299/.338/.550, .888 OPS, .314 BABIP—Current stats
.281/.354/.492, .846 OPS, .301 BABIP—Career stats
.269/.323/.465, .787 OPS, .292 BABIP—Projection
The 39-year-old Carlos Beltran is having his best hitting season since 2011. He’s been particularly strong in slugging percentage, where he currently has a .550 mark. He hasn’t had a slugging percentage that high since 2006. A big part of his success has been how well he’s hit at home. In Yankee Stadium, Beltran has hit .287/.346/.601 (.947 OPS). This wasn’t the case last year. In 2015, Beltran hit .266/.331/.455 at home and .286/.344/.487 on the road. It’s possible that Beltran has figured out a way to more fully take advantage of the friendly dimensions of his home park, or it could be a fluke.
There isn’t anything that jumps out in Beltran’s batted ball profile that suggests he should continue to have an OPS .100 points higher than his rest-of-season projection. His hard hit percentage is slightly better than his career mark, but not enough to account for .100 points of OPS. His BABIP is also a little higher than expected, but not to the extent of many of these players.
Beltran has been very good so far, but he’s 39 years old and his projection going forward is .100 points worse than where he currently sits. I’m going with that projection.
Next: The speedster in Milwaukee
Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers
.298/.380/.426, .806 OPS, .410 BABIP—Current stats
.258/.329/.379, .708 OPS, .353 BABIP—Career stats
.253/.325/.381, .706 OPS, .338 BABIP—Projection
A .410 BABIP at mid-season is always a big warning sign. No player has had a full-season BABIP of .410 in the last 30 years. Last year’s top five players in first half BABIP were Dee Gordon (.403), Miguel Cabrera (.394), Paul Goldschmidt (.389), Brock Holt (.377), and Bryce Harper (.374). They all had a worse BABIP in the second half. Gordon dropped from .410 to .356. Miggy went from .394 to .366. Goldschmidt saw his BABIP drop from .389 to .373. Holt’s fell from .374 to .322. And Harper maintained his the most, dropping from .374 to .365.
I don’t expect Villar’s BABIP to fall off a cliff. He’s a fast runner who has already stolen 31 bases this year, but it’s extremely rare to maintain a .410 BABIP over an entire season. Going back to 1920, just five players in the history of baseball have had a BABIP of .410 or higher over a full season and they are all Hall of Fame players—Babe Ruth, George Sisler, Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, and Harry Heilman.
Next: Eric Hosmer improving, raising price tag
One area in which Villar is likely to regress is his infield hit percentage. Coming into this season, he had eight infield hits in 658 career plate appearances. This year, he has 15 infield hits in 369 plate appearances. He won’t be as fortunate in the second half. When the balls stop falling in and the infield hits aren’t as plentiful, Villar will return to the .700-ish OPS guy he’s projected to be going forward.