Myth #2: Bunting a runner into scoring position is a solid play.
One of the images Kenny goes back to again and again in Ahead of the Curve is that of The Herd. The accepted thinking about how the game has been and should be played, and the difficulty that arises when an organization or manager deviates from that thinking.
“To adopt new methods is not just to stray from the pack, but to mock the herd itself. The herd – large, powerful, belligerent – has ways to deal with rogue operatives,” he writes. “Reverential of its tradition, the baseball culture eyes innovation even more wearily.”
The examples Kenny gives is that of the time-honored tradition of the sacrifice bunt. Every fan knows what this looks like: leadoff man gets aboard and the next batter lays a bunt down the third base line, allowing him to advance to scoring position. Simple and acceptable baseball strategy to this day? Yes. Actually effective? Not so much.
As the book lays out, the run expectancy for a team that utilizes a sacrifice bunt to move a runner from first to second actually decreases, based upon stats from 1993-2010.
“With a man on first and no outs, you will, on average, score 0.94 runs,” Kenny writes. “Move that man over on a bunt? You now, on average, will score 0.72 runs. So let’s be clear: Even with a successful bunt, you score fewer runs.”
He goes on to point out that, in addition to run expectancy decreasing, so to do the odds of scoring at all. With a man on first and no outs, a team will score just over 44 percent of the time, while a team with a man on second and one out will score just under 42 percent of the time. It may not seem significant, but ballgames are won or lost on fractions and at the margins.
The reason the sacrifice bunt still exists, according to Kenny, is that a manager can shift blame more easily by following the herd. If the runner who moved to second on a bunt does not score, the blame falls onto the two players who failed to bring him plateward, not the skipper. The fact that it actually hinders the objective of the team – to win games – is barely an afterthought.
Of course, some concessions may need to be made in the National League, where pitchers step into the batter’s box and a bunt (unless it’s MadBum) may be the best option.
Next: Kill the win.