Los Angeles Dodgers: Can Corey Seager Contend for MVP?
Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager has made a great case during the first half for winning Rookie of the Year. Does he have what it takes to complete an almost unprecedented feat, winning the MVP as a rookie?
Corey Seager, the Los Angeles Dodgers rookie shortstop, lit the league on fire during June and into the All-Star break, and he showed his star power with a good first round showing the Home Run Derby. He is seemingly wrapping up the Rookie of the Year race in the National League, just as Kris Bryant did last year around the same time.
Yes, there are other suitors like Aledmys Diaz, Trevor Story, and even Steven Matz in the hunt, but Seager appears as though he will be walking away with it at the end of the year. With that award practically wrapped up, it becomes time to question whether Seager will be able to take the next step to become the NL MVP.
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Only two players in history have ever won the MVP the same year that they were rookies, and in both cases they won the Rookie of the Year award in their league. The first player to do it was Fred Lynn in 1975 with the Boston Red Sox. He played center field which, like Seager’s position, is a very high value position up the middle. In that season he hit .331/.401/.566 with a 162 OPS+ and 161 wRC+; he also hit 21 home runs and drove in 105 batters while only striking out 14.9% of the time and walking 10.2% of the time. It is pretty safe to say that, regardless of the difference in era, that was an incredibly good season. In fact, he was one of only two players that received first place votes that year.
The other player to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season was Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, with a very good Seattle Mariners team. Suzuki’s year wasn’t as good in comparison to the other players in the league as Lynn’s was, but Suzuki’s style of play was so unlike anything fans or writers had seen that he dazzled writers into votes.
Despite not really outperforming the rest of the American League that season, he was still very good in 2001 when he hit .350/.381/.457 with an incredible 7.2% strikeout rate. His slap-hitting style and ability to rake in hits like nobody else attracted writers to his case for MVP amidst the latter years of the steroid era. Most of Ichiro’s votes probably came because of the awe in which he left both fans and writers alike along with his team’s historic success during the regular season.
These two examples don’t provide us with a good comparison for Seager because of how voters viewed players and what it meant to be “MVP” up until the last decade or so. Fred Lynn was able to win the award because nobody in the American League that year put up a huge fight, especially in the statistical areas that were appreciated when he played. In the case of Ichiro, the Mariners success that season had a lot to do with him getting votes over the other players who were very good that year. For Seager, he has incredibly stiff competition in the National League MVP race and the Dodgers aren’t having a historically good season.
With players like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy, and others all having very good seasons in the National League, Seager would have to outperform them by a wide margin to get the attention for votes. Seager is hitting .301/.360/.528 with 17 home runs, 43 RBI, and a 138 wRC+. Those numbers are good enough to compete with the rest of the NL MVP Candidates, especially if Seager continues to hit like he did in June. in June Seager hit .349/.412/.670 with 8 home runs, a .321 ISO and 186 wRC+. In July he has cooled slightly, but remains that same type of player that will hit for power and average while being incredibly solid at a high value position.
It will be more difficult for Corey Seager to win the MVP this season than it was for Lynn and Suzuki in their rookie seasons for two reasons. The main reason is the high level of talent within in the National League. Daniel Murphy has an incredibly high batting average, which some voters still rely on when making their decision. For the voters more inclined to advanced statistics, Bryant, Arendado, and Rizzo will all get major consideration. In order for Seager to win the MVP he would have to outperform some very good players in the final two and a half months of the season. Not to mention that his team’s success hasn’t been at an incredible level, which some voters also seem to take into account.
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While it’s not impossible for Seager to win the MVP, it’s not entirely likely. With stiff competition in the National League, he is likely to lack the attention needed to win the award. However, we shouldn’t be shocked if he finishes in the top 5 of voting if he continues to play like he has over the last month.