Oakland Athletics: What Would a Rich Hill Trade Look Like?

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The trade market for starting pitchers has picked up steam since Drew Pomeranz was traded to the Boston Red Sox. With so many potential playoff teams needing to add depth to their rotations, Oakland Athletics left-hander Rich Hill should fetch a fairly big return.

Rich Hill has been one of the best starting pitchers in the American League this season… now let that sink in. Before making a couple of good starts with the Red Sox at the end of the 2015 season, the now 36-year-old was a true journeyman pitcher, making appearances on five different teams in six years. Most of these outings were in the bullpen, not as a starting pitcher. Before making four starts last year, Hill hadn’t appeared as a starter since 2009. But as hard as it is to believe, Hill has turned into one of the more valuable pitchers on the trading block.

Currently, Hill has a 2.25 ERA and is striking out over ten hitters per nine innings. He’s had a little trouble with walks when he is on the mound, but his ERA and strikeout rate rank first among eligible American League starters, even though the Athletics ace has not accumulated the number of innings needed to be officially placed at the top of the list. There are two concerns that teams could have when contemplating whether they should give up the type of prospects they would need to in order to land Hill, which are his health and salary situation.

Hill is going to have his next start skipped due to a blister on his throwing hand. This is the second time that the has missed scheduled starts in 2016. He had to go on the disabled list in June because of a groin injury, but he has been productive in his last couple starts in his return to the rotation. The Athletics are probably just being cautious with one of their valuable trade chips, but it is still a concern given that he will only be a rental for the rest of the year.

With Hill hitting free agency after this year, he may not bring back a prospect like Anderson Espinoza, but the Athletics may also have to limit their expectations with some other factors at play. It is possible that Oakland could try to attach Billy Butler and his contract to help to shed some money as they look to next season. If a team takes on Butler’s contract, the club would have to expect that the type of haul they could get to significantly decrease, even though it may be worth it to be relieved of Butler’s salary.

Rich Hill is one of the most interesting trade candidates for many reasons. His track record, injury questions and impending free agency makes it difficult to project where he goes and the value he brings back. Here are a few possible deals that may go down for the Athletics lefty.

Next: Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Get Hill to Replace Aaron Sanchez

Toronto Blue Jays Receive: Rich Hill, Marc Rzepczynski

Oakland Athletics Receive: Anthony Alford (86th Overall, BA), Jon Harris (4th TOR, MLB.com), Chad Girodo (16th TOR, MLB.com)

One may not think that the Blue Jays would be a team that will opt to address their rotation at the trade deadline because their starting pitching has been a strength with the type of performances they’ve gotten from Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ this season. The club also has a promising right-hander in Marcus Stroman, whose numbers have not matched the stuff that he carries. But the team will eventually need to find a starter as Aaron Sanchez is on an innings limit and will shift to the bullpen later in the season.

With Sanchez shifting to a relief role, the team will address some of the struggles that they’ve had with their bullpen in-house. This leaves Toronto without one of their potential playoff starters as they push for a spot in the postseason; enter Rich Hill.

Hill will be a stabilizing force on an already solid rotation and he will be one of the few pitchers available that could adequately replace Sanchez’s production. He would also not have to be relied on as the staff ace with Estrada and Happ’s surprising performances through the first half of this season. The deal would also bring them a solid left-hander in Rzepczynski to continue to improve their shaky relief pitching.

The Athletics would get two longer-term pieces as part of this trade being that Anthony Alford and Jon Harris are each not even playing in Double-A ball yet. However, both have a chance to be solid players at the major league level.

Alford came into 2016 as the 37th ranked prospect, according to mlb.com, but a rough start has pushed him back to the 86th spot in Baseball America’s midseason prospect list. The 22-year-old outfielder still has a ton of potential with his athleticism and dynamic style of play, but he needs to up his production in order to keep moving up the minor league ladder.

Jon Harris was Toronto’s first round pick last year and has been solid at Single-A this season. He may not have the ceiling to be a front of the rotation guy, but he is a safe bet to crack a major league rotation in the future. Chad Girodo gives the Athletics more immediate impact as the left-hander is currently dominating in Triple-A as a late inning reliever. He should be a useful piece for the Athletics in the near future.

Next: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers Add Another Starter with Kershaw, Ryu Injuried

Los Angeles Dodgers Receive: Rich Hill

Oakland Athletics Receive: Grant Holmes (60th overall, BA), Austin Barnes (LAD 12th, mlb.com)

The Dodgers have played much better of late, moving within five games of the San Francisco Giants. They also have the best record of any team that isn’t a division leader in the National League. Los Angeles has done all of this gaining without the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. To add to their rotation troubles, the club just learned that Hyun-jin Ryu would have to go onto the disabled list. Alex Wood is also highly unlikely to pitch in 2016.

This leaves them with a rotation made up of Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Bud Norris, Brandon McCarthy and 19-year-old Julio Urias. While tremendously talented, Urias probably still needs some seasoning in Triple-A after struggling in the majors. Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Bud Norris are solid veteran inning eaters, but haven’t pitched well enough to invoke confidence as a potential postseason starter. The Dodgers need another pitcher to pair with Kershaw and Maeda, as well as to give insurance if the Dodgers ace misses an extended period of time.

The Athletics would also be getting two top 15 prospects in the Dodgers system. The more well-regarded player that Oakland will be getting is 20-year-old right-handed pitcher Grant Holmes. The former 22nd overall pick in 2014 has been on a steady rise through the Los Angeles farm system over the past two years. He has pitched to a 3.39 ERA for the Dodgers High-A team, striking out almost a batter an inning.

Holmes has been successful at every level, holding a career 3.35 earned run average and posting a strikeout rate of 9.8 per nine innings over the past three seasons. He has had issues with walks and critics think that he is destined for the bullpen because of his lack of feel for his secondary pitches. He has the talent to be a two or a three in a starting rotation, which is something that should entice Billy Beane.

The Athletics would also be getting a solid young catching prospect in Austin Barnes. The 26-year-old is currently blocked by Yasmani Grandal, even though he is currently owning Triple-A pitching. He owns a .300 average this season, adding four long balls as well. Barnes profiles as a possible starting catcher that can move around the diamond as he’s played second and third base as well.

Next: Texas Rangers

Rangers Give Cole Hamels Some Help

Texas Rangers Receive: Rich Hill, Billy Butler (Take on full contract)

Oakland Athletics Receive: Ariel Jurado (TEX 12th, mlb.com), Ryan Cordell (TEX 14th, mlb.com)

It is obvious that the Athletics would like to get rid of Billy Butler’s salary figure for this season and next. He is owed probably around $4 million for the rest of this year and $10 million in 2017. So, Oakland can attack this Rich Hill trade in two ways. They could try to get as much prospect value possible for their lefty, or they could try to attach Billy Butler to any deal and get lower quality prospects in return.

If Texas wanted Hill, it will probably have to give up the likes of Lewis Brinson, their highly coveted outfielder, who is ranked in the top 30 of the Baseball America midseason prospect rankings. However, Texas may be more comfortable taking on Butler’s high dollar figure, knowing that the organization has not been shy in spending money in order to get better. The Athletics may even feel more determined to rid themselves of money because of the financial constraints their organization has. This would lead Billy Beane to shed salary and still get two decent prospects.

Ariel Jurado is a solid, albeit unspectacular pitching prospect. He holds a 3.86 ERA in High-A ball, but he doesn’t have the power stuff to become anything more than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. He throws his heater in the high 80s to low 90s, possessing above average command for all of his pitches. Ryan Cordell is a utility player, who is probably best suited to play the outfield. He was drafted in the 11th round in 2013. He’s hitting the ball well in Double-A, mashing 17 long balls in 94 games this season. He may not be the best fielder, but his hitting tools could certainly make an offensively capable MLB player.

For the Rangers, they are one of the most desperate clubs for starting pitching. According to multiple reports, they have had discussions for many potentially available starters. Behind Cole Hamels there is a lot of uncertainty. Even if Yu Darvish is able to come back strong, they still need another starter to help fill out their postseason rotation because Nick Martinez and A.J. Griffin won’t cut it as a three in the playoffs. Texas has a chance to go far in a wide open American League, so you should expect them to land at least one starting pitcher before the deadline.

Next: Houston Astros

Houston Continues to Boost Their Stock

Houston Astros Receive: Rich Hill, Danny Valencia

Oakland Athletics Receive: Joe Musgrove (32nd overall, BA), Tony Kemp (HOU 12th, mlb.com)

In this deal, the Athletics decide to send two players that the club has probably moved on from. Rich Hill is an impending free agent on a last place team and Valencia has been losing playing time at third base to a more controllable and younger player in Ryon Healy in recent weeks. Valencia’s trade stock has been falling since the end of June. After starting off the season as one of the best hitters on the team, many think that he is more of a platoon bat because of his high batting average against left-handed pitching. He will fit nicely as a designated hitter with A.J. Reed, or he can be insurance if Yulieski Gurriel and Alex Bregman aren’t producing at the major league level this season, even though their talent indicates that they should.

But while Valencia is a key piece in this trade, Rich Hill is the main prize. Dallas Keuchel has been a completely different pitcher than the one that took home the AL Cy Young last season. Doug Fister has been the best starter in their rotation and Collin McHugh is simply average. Lance McCullers has given the team a nice lift since returning from injury, but he is still growing into becoming a consistently dominant starting pitcher.

Houston has been playing well of late and needs a top of the rotation starter if they want to continue their hot streak. Rich Hill will probably be the best pitcher moved at the deadline based upon his numbers this season, and he makes Houston much more formidable as the postseason push goes into full swing.

Oakland will be getting two valuable pieces in return for their productive veterans. Joe Musgrove has been continuing to improve his stock since the start of the season. He now ranks as the 32nd overall prospect, according to Baseball America. The 23-year-old is currently pitching at Triple-A after posting a 0.34 ERA in six appearances in Double-A. Musgrove is one of the safest starters to make a major league impact because of how well he controls all of his offerings. He can pump the ball into the mid-90s, even though he sits more in the 91-93 mph range. However, he is polished and close to contributing at the major league level, which is something that the Athletics should value.

Tony Kemp has been moving his way up the Astros system since he was taken in the fifth round in 2013. Like Musgrove, the second baseman is currently playing at Triple-A, so he may soon be making an impact at the major league level. He has above average speed and controls the strike zone well even though his power potential is limited. Kemp is a logical trading piece because he is blocked by the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman in the infield. He is a potential major league starter at second base.

Next: Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins Signal They Are Going for It

Miami Marlins Receive: Rich Hill

Oakland Athletics Receive: Josh Naylor (100th overall, BA), Jake Esch (MIA 9th, mlb.com), Justin Nicolino

The Marlins have the weakest farm system of any team on this list and therefore they have to give up more pieces in order to entice the Athletics into a trade. The lone top 100 prospect in their farm system is their 2015 first round selection, Josh Naylor. The 19-year-old first baseman has held his own at Single-A this season, hitting in the .260s with nine home runs. These aren’t poor numbers for a player in his first full year in the minors, but there are some glaring weaknesses to his game. Naylor is a major liability on the base paths and may start to rack up the strikeouts because of how poorly he controls the strike zone at this stage in his development. Even so, his 30 home run power potential and tremendous bat speed will intrigue Oakland enough.

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Justin Nicolino was a serviceable starting pitcher for the Marlins in 2015, finishing the season with a 4.01 ERA and only averaging 2.4 walks per nine innings. The 24-year-old left-hander has taken a major step back this year, pitching to an ERA in the mid-5.00s and being removed from the starting staff. Nicolino is not a strikeout pitcher, only averaging about four K’s per nine innings of work. But he is still controlled through the 2021 season and has had some success in MLB.

Jake Esch is not a throwaway player in this deal either. While he may be 26 years old and still in Double-A, he has been productive this season and has the stuff and command that could translate into a capable back of the rotation pitcher in the next year or so.

Miami seems to be trying to go for it as they have been heavily connected to Tampa Bay Rays starter Jake Odorizzi. The Rays starter may be much younger and more controllable, but the Marlins desperately need a starter behind Jose Fernandez if they hope to stay in the postseason race for the rest of the regular season. Wei-Yin Chen has been a disappointment and the remainder of their rotation is nothing to get excited about.

Rich Hill provides the club with a veteran presence that will consistently give them a chance to win. The Marlins will be reluctant to give up Josh Naylor as their farm system is already quite barren, but with the postseason in reach, it is something they need to do if they want to have a chance to do damage in the playoffs.

Next: Cleveland Wants Lucroy

What team do you think will trade for Rich Hill? What type of return will the Athletics ace bring back? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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