A Tampa Bay Rays pitcher who is pitching much better than some of his numbers suggest leads off this week’s minor league notes.
Jacob Faria of the Durham Bulls is having dreadful luck keeping baserunners from scoring. In 14 starts in Double-A, the Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospect had the Southern League’s seventh-lowest Left on Base Percentage (66.0 percent) and the bad luck has haunted him since his promotion to Triple-A, where his LOB% is just 48.2 percent.
There are many factors that contribute to LOB%, but none of them suggest Faria should be getting pummeled the way he is.
In his start Friday against the Syracuse Chiefs, he allowed seven runs in just two-thirds of an inning. The big blow came on a grand slam by Matt den Dekker, which was a cruel punch of irony considering Faria had allowed just five home runs in Double-A.
After that outing, Faria’s earned run average in Triple-A jumped to 4.60; in Double-A his ERA was 4.21. But his fielding independent pitching in both Double- and Triple-A is at least a run lower than his ERA: his 1.00 run difference in the SL still ranks third entering Wednesday while his 2.10 difference in Triple-A is an alarm that nefarious, perhaps even supernatural forces are working against him.
Faria has the swing-and-miss arsenal to work out of a jam. He has 19 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings since his promotion to Triple-A and he was second in the SL with 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings. According to StatCorner, his contact rates in both Double- and Triple-A are at least six percentage points below league average.
He hasn’t hurt himself, either, as he only has five walks since his promotion. Additionally, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is 18 points above his career average (.290), which is a small increase and comes in a small sample, which means it will likely go down. So what gives?
To be honest, I don’t know. All of those numbers point to the fact that Faria is pitching better than his ERA indicates and some of those runners will stop scoring. Perhaps the best thing to say is Faria should keep doing whatever he’s doing and hope the baseball gods turn their wrath on some other poor soul.
And just like that we’re back at it with some minor league notes.
Next: Triple-A