Tampa Bay Rays: Jacob Faria’s bad luck leads minor league notes
A Tampa Bay Rays pitcher who is pitching much better than some of his numbers suggest leads off this week’s minor league notes.
Jacob Faria of the Durham Bulls is having dreadful luck keeping baserunners from scoring. In 14 starts in Double-A, the Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospect had the Southern League’s seventh-lowest Left on Base Percentage (66.0 percent) and the bad luck has haunted him since his promotion to Triple-A, where his LOB% is just 48.2 percent.
There are many factors that contribute to LOB%, but none of them suggest Faria should be getting pummeled the way he is.
In his start Friday against the Syracuse Chiefs, he allowed seven runs in just two-thirds of an inning. The big blow came on a grand slam by Matt den Dekker, which was a cruel punch of irony considering Faria had allowed just five home runs in Double-A.
After that outing, Faria’s earned run average in Triple-A jumped to 4.60; in Double-A his ERA was 4.21. But his fielding independent pitching in both Double- and Triple-A is at least a run lower than his ERA: his 1.00 run difference in the SL still ranks third entering Wednesday while his 2.10 difference in Triple-A is an alarm that nefarious, perhaps even supernatural forces are working against him.
Faria has the swing-and-miss arsenal to work out of a jam. He has 19 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings since his promotion to Triple-A and he was second in the SL with 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings. According to StatCorner, his contact rates in both Double- and Triple-A are at least six percentage points below league average.
He hasn’t hurt himself, either, as he only has five walks since his promotion. Additionally, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is 18 points above his career average (.290), which is a small increase and comes in a small sample, which means it will likely go down. So what gives?
To be honest, I don’t know. All of those numbers point to the fact that Faria is pitching better than his ERA indicates and some of those runners will stop scoring. Perhaps the best thing to say is Faria should keep doing whatever he’s doing and hope the baseball gods turn their wrath on some other poor soul.
And just like that we’re back at it with some minor league notes.
Next: Triple-A
Brady Rodgers’ second go-around in the International League is going much better than the first: the Houston Astros prospect’s ERA is down to 2.88 in 2016 from 4.51 in 2015; his FIP is down to 3.04 from 4.20; and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is up to 5.38 from 3.56. He’s having such a good season, he started the Triple-A All-Star Game for the Pacific Coast League.
According to the Houston Chronicle, during spring training Rodgers got some help developing his slider from Astros reliever Luke Gregerson, and the numbers above speak for themselves.
After cruising through his first two professional seasons, Seattle Mariners prospect D.J. Peterson stalled in Double-A in 2015. He hit just .223 with a .290 on-base percentage and slugged just .346 after slugging .473 with 13 home runs there in 58 games in 2014.
Peterson has turned it around this season. He slashed .271/.340/.466 with 11 home runs in 73 games to earn a promotion to Triple-A. Since the promo, he’s slashed .333/.387/.623 and hit five home runs. He’s experiencing some BABIP-induced luck that often comes with hitting in the Pacific Coast League, but the outlook is still bright for the rest of the season.
Aaron Blair has not enjoyed his most recent trip to Triple-A. The big right-hander in the Atlanta Braves organization made his major league debut earlier this season and has taken two trips back-and-forth on the shuttle to Triple-A Gwinnett. Since his most recent demotion, Blair has a 7.94 ERA, opponents are batting .340 and he’s walked 13 batters in 22.2 innings.
Next: Double-A
Three Cleveland Indians prospects are putting up similar numbers in the Eastern League. Entering Wednesday, Bradley Zimmer and Nellie Rodriguez were tied for ninth in the league with a 133 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) while Clint Frazier (128) was 12th. All three had walk rates above 10 percent but below 14 percent; all three were slugging between .460 and .490; and all three had at least 20 doubles and 10 home runs.
While the numbers themselves are strikingly similar, they are doing it in different ways. Zimmer has the threat of speed, leading the bunch with six triples and 31 stolen bases; Frazier is the next closest with 12 swipes. Rodriguez leads the group with 18 home runs—Zimmer is second with 14, Frazier has 11—but he strikes out the most by far, whiffing in 33.1 percent of his plate appearances.
Frazier is the youngest of the three, so it’s no surprise his power is the least developed, but his hitting approach is ahead of his experience and the power potential will come as he matures.
In the Southern League, Jake Bauers is making the Rays brass look smart for acquiring him in the Wil Myers trade. He’s slashing .283/.370/.431 with 11 home runs this season. Since the trade, he’s hitting .277/.356/.426, which included a .254/.342/.403/2 HR line in the Arizona Fall League.
Entering Wednesday’s start, Francis Martes had been decent but not great. He was dominant from May 17 to June 25 with a 1.80 ERA, a .208 average against and 38 strikeouts in 40 innings. The next three starts had mixed results as he struck out 19 batters in 14.1 innings but walked eight and allowed eight runs. Wednesday he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings.
Next: Class A Advanced
The Miami Marlins have the two best pitchers in the Florida State League based on FIP. Luis Castillo leads the league at 2.31 while Dillon Peters is not far behind at 2.33. They are fourth and second in K/BB at 5.07 and 5.85, respectively, and each has allowed only one home run. (Castillo pitched six scoreless innings yesterday and struck out seven with no walks.)
Castillo had a good 2015 season, but he’s been even better this year. His K/BB was 2.85 between Single-A and Class A Advanced in 2015, and entering Wednesday’s start his opponents’ average was down to .226 from .252. Peters’ biggest improvement has come from issuing fewer walks. He’s walked 1.33 batters per nine innings this season, down from 2.60 in 2015.
Luis Urias is 19 years old but is putting up big numbers in the California League. While fellow Mexican Julio Urias (no relation) has been making a big splash this season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Luis has been quietly slashing .336/.402/.454, which puts his wRC+ at 137, sixth in the league entering Wednesday. On Tuesday he went 3-for-4 with a home run and was hitting .462 over his previous 10 games.
Urias has been doing most of his damage by hitting the ball on the ground. He leads the league in contact rate (88.3 percent) and strikeout rate (8.1 percent) and his 51.1 percent groundball rate is 6.1 points above league average while his fly ball rate (21.5 percent) is 3.8 below average.
The first month of the season was awful for Erick Fedde. The Washington Nationals prospect had a 6.62 ERA and 4.41 FIP through May 15 and had given up five home runs in 34 innings, including three during his second start of the season. He had a 3.89 K/BB and .357 BABIP, both of which suggested better times were ahead.
Fedde has been a stud since then. Over his past seven starts (and one relief appearance) he has a 0.69 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 4.50 K/BB and his BABIP is down to .253. His luck has swung from very good to very bad, so it will be interesting to see how he pitches when his luck is somewhere in the middle.
Next: Single-A
The Milwaukee Brewers traded Jean Segura to the Arizona Diamondbacks in January, presumably to clear room for shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. As part of the trade, the Brewers received shortstop Isan Diaz, an intriguing prospect who could end up being a steal.
Diaz did not start the 2016 season off well. Through May 29 he was slashing .204/.278/.306 with three home runs. He’s been much better since then, slashing .313/.391/.596 with 10 home runs.
Part of the reason for the early struggles may have been that he needed to adjust to a new hitting environment. Last season he had a 169 wRC+ in the Pioneer League, which is basically an offensive free-for-all. The Midwest League is much more balanced, so it makes sense that his offensive numbers would be down a touch.
That being said, he’s still one of the best hitters in the league. Entering Wednesday he led the league in home runs and was fifth in ISO (.188). If he continues his current pace the rest of the season, he will break into the top 10 prospects in the Brewers’ system.
Next: Alex Verdugo flying under the radar
San Francisco Giants prospect Cory Taylor could jump into top prospect lists after this season. Entering Wednesday’s start, he was second in the league in FIP (2.78), second in ERA (2.42) and fifth in K/9 IP (9.48). (Wednesday he pitched six innings and allowed two runs.) This season follows up a successful pro debut in 2015 for the eighth round draft pick. The Giants limited his time on the mound last season to 18 relief appearances and just 33 innings, but he struck out 13.64/9 IP and had a 2.24 FIP.