The Minnesota Twins are going to be sellers at the trade deadline–or at least they should be. Instead, they may be looking to keep Ervin Santana and his $40.5 million over the next three years on the payroll.
Last week the Twins fired their GM Terry Ryan, who had been at the helm since 1994 with a brief respite coming from 2008 to 2010. Yet, it still looks as though the Twins are operating with business as usual, according to beat writer Rhett Bollinger.
From what I'm hearing Twins don't seem all that inclined to trade Ervin Santana unless wowed by offer. They view him as part of their future
— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) July 23, 2016
While Santana hasn’t been horrendous, he also hasn’t been an ace, going 3-8 with a 3.93 ERA for traditionalists, and earning a 4.02 FIP and a 1.6 WAR for the sabermetrically inclined. As far as pitchers go, that WAR total is ranked 58th in baseball, and just happens to be the same exact WAR that Yankee reliever Andrew Miller, as well as fellow starters Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies, to name a couple.
Hellickson was acquired by Philadelphia during the offseason for a low-level prospect, and with the season that he is having the Phillies are almost certain to flip him for a bigger return than the one they gave up to add him in the first place. Plus, his performance has helped to keep the Phillies from being a laughingstock in the big leagues this season, which could help lure free agents in upcoming off seasons. The Twins, with Santana, have taken a seat at the table of mockery. Of his 18 starts this season, the Twins have won four. Run support plays a role here, as he is receiving just 3.22 runs per game, but this speaks to the larger issue that there is more that needs to be fixed on this club.
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The team isn’t winning with Santana on the roster, so how big of a loss could he really be? With inflated salaries becoming the norm, that $13.5 million a year is a relative bargain, but could also be used in a much better way, say for a dominant reliever (if they could lure one), or for a couple of veteran pitchers to provide some depth in the rotation. One of baseball’s best pitchers this season, Rich Hill, signed with the small market A’s for $6 million this season. This is relevant because it seems like there is something missing when it comes to the Twins front office. Whether it’s scouting, fear of risk, or development, Minnesota looks to have all of the on-the-field talent in place, but isn’t seeing the results they have expected.
While Santana hasn’t been a big part of the problem by any means, shipping him away at the deadline would be a way to free up some cash flow and hit the reset button on some of the bloated contracts they’ve handed out to the wrong people over the past few seasons.
The Braves and Reds, two of the other teams with sub-.400 winning percentages this season, have earned passes on their poor performance, because they have been forthright with their plans all along. They’ll be terrible this season, and perhaps next, but they have a deep farm systems that continue to get deeper, following the blueprint of the Cubs and Astros. The Twins are in a middle ground that is just perplexing. They have the prospects, but two of their top jewels, Byron Buxton has continued to struggle and Jose Berrios is still in the minor leagues and his brief big-league stint was filled with toil. It would appear that they’ll need more pieces around them in order for the team to succeed. Max Kepler is a nice start, as is Miguel Sano (why the heck was he in the outfield anyway?), but in order to win in the majors, a team has to have depth. The Twins don’t appear to have, or want to add, that depth.
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Listen, I get that the Twins don’t want to rock the boat too much. If things break their way a bit next year, they could be a whole lot more competitive. But how often is it that a pitcher entering his mid-30’s actually improves as the years go by? And a right-hander at that. Santana will be 34 at the start of next season, and the Twins have a golden opportunity to rid themselves of some of that risk, while gaining financial flexibility, and if you haven’t guessed by now, I think they should take it.