Fantasy Baseball: Alex Bregman, David Dahl Worth a Roster Spot
News broke on Sunday that the Houston Astros would be promoting Alex Bregman and the Colorado Rockies would be calling up number two prospect David Dahl ahead of Monday’s games. But what kind of impact will each player have for your fantasy baseball team?
At this point, if you haven’t already stashed away Bregman for this day, he may not available in your league. Give it a look. While you’re looking, you have a decent chance at landing Dahl, who is owned in only 2.6 percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, compared to Bregman’s 21.6 percent ownership. On Yahoo, Dahl is owned in 7 percent of leagues while Bregman is on 38 percent of rosters.
Bregman figures to receive regular playing time at a multitude of positions, manning shortstop, third base and left field this season in the minors. That diversity, coupled with 20 home runs in 80 games between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Fresno, 61 RBI, a .306 batting average and .406 on-base percentage, makes it pretty clear that Bregman could absolutely be the real deal. If you’re in a keeper league he’s a must-add. If you’re into sabermetrics, Bregman put up a .263 ISO in Double-A and a .329 in his brief stint in Triple-A. That’s good for a wRC+ of 176 and 182 at the two stops. Needless to say that’s really, really good. A .250 ISO is considered ‘excellent’ and is the top rung on the ladder. So the production he’s providing is both well-above league average, and super-excellent.
Adding to all of those shiny offensive numbers, Bregman has struck out just 38 times in 314 at-bats this season, drawing 47 walks in the process. That’s a 12.1 percent strikeout rate, which keeps in line with his career rate of 11.6. There has been no learning curve for Bregman, who was drafted last June, and that speaks to how quickly he is able to make adjustments. That adaptability should serve him well when he reaches the big leagues.
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Dahl started out this season with the Double-A Hartford Yard Goats, a team that has technically had home games, but haven’t been able to christen their new stadium due to numerous delays. On Monday, Dahl will find a new home.
The 22-year-old outfielder started the season as the number 39 prospect in all of baseball, and hit the ground running, smashing eight homers in April. While that rate didn’t quite continue, he kept getting on base, finishing out his Double-A run with a .367 OBP.
At the beginning of July, Dahl was promoted to Albuquerque and hasn’t made very many outs over 16 games. He’s batting .484 with a .529 OBP and is slugging 1.417, thanks to five homers, two triples and six doubles, which led to 16 runs batted in.
What’s interesting about Dahl’s performance is that Albuquerque, New Mexico is another fairly elevated city, much like Denver Colorado. While Denver varies from 5,130 to 5,690 feet above sea level, Albuquerque roughly in the middle at 5,312 feet. Coors Field itself is 5,200, or just below the Isotopes’ ballpark. Eleven of the 16 games that Dahl has played in Triple-A have been at elevation. His ISO in Triple-A is .421 while his wRC+ is 258, or just a mere 158 percent above league average. It’s a small sample, but Dahl has the tools to produce (not at that rate, obviously) in the big leagues right away.
Dahl will strike out a bit more at 27.4 percent between his two stops this year, and Bregman has the higher OPS (on-base plus slugging) overall at .986 to Dahl’s .963, but both should certainly add some thump to your lineup. If you can only choose one, go with Bregman due to his (likely) position eligibility and ability to avoid the strikeout. He’ll also be in a very formidable lineup which should give him plenty of chances to be productive in getting you some power numbers. On the flip side, Dahl will be more of a stolen base threat, swiping 17 bags this season to Bregman’s seven.
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If Bregman produces, he’ll continue to get playing time, and there has been no indication in his professional career that he won’t produce. Dahl on the other hand figures to be in the lineup more often than not because he is one of the centerpieces of the Rockies youth movement out in Colorado. Bregman is on a contending team that could help him continue to put up video game numbers, but could also have a shorter leash if things go completely awry.