MLB Trade Retrospective: Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals
Nationals’ Season Goes Down in Flames
There were a number of factors that contributed to the Nationals’ spectacular flop in the second half last season, but the trade for Papelbon seemed to be the spark that touched off the powder keg. They won two straight games after the Papelbon trade, but then went on a 6-15 stretch from July 31 to August 21. During this period, Drew Storen lost two games in relief and gave up 10 runs in 7.2 innings (11.74 ERA).
On August 7, Storen entered the game in the top of the 8th with a 4-1 lead and gave up four runs on a grand slam by Carlos Gonzalez. It was his first blown save, but it wouldn’t be his last. Two days later, Storen came into a tie game and gave up two runs to earn the loss.
While the Nationals’ season was swirling around the shiny ceramic bowl, the Mets’ season was taking off. They had traded for Yoenis Cespedes a few days after the Nationals traded for Papelbon and Cespedes was the hottest hitter on the planet. The Mets went 19-6 from July 31 to August 27. A month after the Papelbon trade, the Nationals had gone from one game ahead of the Mets to 6.5 games behind.
The Nationals would recover a bit and the Mets would cool down, but the gap between them never got closer than four games after the Papelbon swap. The Mets ended up winning the division by seven games.
The difference in effectiveness for Storen and Papelbon before the trade and after the trade are stark.
Pre-Trade:
1-0, 29 SV 2 BS, 36.1 IP, 1.73 ERA, 1.98 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 10.9 K/9—Storen
2-1, 17 SV, 0 BS, 39.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 9.1 K/9—Papelbon
Post-Trade:
1-2, 0 SV, 3 BS, 18.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.1 K/9—Storen
2-2, 7 SV, 2 BS, 23.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 6.1 K/9—Papelbon
Pre-Trade:
52-46, .536—Washington Nationals
52-48, .515—New York Mets
Post-Trade:
31-33, .477—Washington Nationals
38-24, .619—New York Mets
The results were bad on the field. Storen seemed to lose it mentally and his ERA blew up. Papelbon wasn’t nearly as bad as Storen, but he also wasn’t great and the difference between his ERA and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he was a bit lucky to have an ERA in the threes. Off the field, things were even worse.
Next: Off-Field Problems Post-Trade