MLB Trade Retrospective: Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals

A look back at the MLB deadline week trade in 2015 when the Washington Nationals traded a young pitcher to the Philadelphia Phillies for Jonathan Papelbon.

Prior to the 2015 season, the Washington Nationals added starting pitcher Max Scherzer to a starting rotation that already had Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister. The offense looked strong with a young Bryce Harper ready to have a breakout season. They were universally picked to win the NL East. Sports Illustrated projected the Nationals would win 99 games. Fangraphs had them with 94 wins. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA had them with 92 wins. The Sporting News predicted they would win 95 games.

They were expected to win the NL East by close to 10 games, with the Marlins and Mets lucky to be Wild Card teams. There was a season preview at ESPN.com that included 15 baseball analysts who all picked the Nationals to win the NL East, and six of those 15 picked the Nationals to win the World Series.

The Nationals got off to a slow start, going 10-13 in April. They really got going in May, though, winning 18 of 27 games, and kept it up in June, going 15-12. July was not a good month for the Nationals and the Mets were hanging close, just two games back at the All-Star break. Along the way, the Nationals had lost Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span to the disabled list.

The Nationals still led the NL East by one game on this date last season when the they made a trade to bolster their bullpen. They swapped a AA pitcher, Nick Pivetta, with the Philadelphia Phillies for closer Jonathan Papelbon and cash.

It seemed like a curious move at the time. The Nationals had Drew Storen at closer and he was having a terrific season. He had saved 29 of his first 31 games, with a 1.73 ERA (1.98 FIP), 1.02 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 36.1 innings. Closer was an area of strength for the Nationals, yet they traded for a guy, Papelbon, who insisted on being the closer. To be fair, Papelbon was having a fine season. He had 17 saves, with no blown saves, and a 1.59 ERA (3.01 FIP).

Next: Nats' Season Goes Down In Flames

Nationals’ Season Goes Down in Flames

There were a number of factors that contributed to the Nationals’ spectacular flop in the second half last season, but the trade for Papelbon seemed to be the spark that touched off the powder keg. They won two straight games after the Papelbon trade, but then went on a 6-15 stretch from July 31 to August 21. During this period, Drew Storen lost two games in relief and gave up 10 runs in 7.2 innings (11.74 ERA).

On August 7, Storen entered the game in the top of the 8^th with a 4-1 lead and gave up four runs on a grand slam by Carlos Gonzalez. It was his first blown save, but it wouldn’t be his last. Two days later, Storen came into a tie game and gave up two runs to earn the loss.

While the Nationals’ season was swirling around the shiny ceramic bowl, the Mets’ season was taking off. They had traded for Yoenis Cespedes a few days after the Nationals traded for Papelbon and Cespedes was the hottest hitter on the planet. The Mets went 19-6 from July 31 to August 27. A month after the Papelbon trade, the Nationals had gone from one game ahead of the Mets to 6.5 games behind.

The Nationals would recover a bit and the Mets would cool down, but the gap between them never got closer than four games after the Papelbon swap. The Mets ended up winning the division by seven games.

The difference in effectiveness for Storen and Papelbon before the trade and after the trade are stark.

Pre-Trade:

1-0, 29 SV 2 BS, 36.1 IP, 1.73 ERA, 1.98 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 10.9 K/9—Storen

2-1, 17 SV, 0 BS, 39.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 9.1 K/9—Papelbon

Post-Trade:

1-2, 0 SV, 3 BS, 18.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.1 K/9—Storen

2-2, 7 SV, 2 BS, 23.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 6.1 K/9—Papelbon

Pre-Trade:

52-46, .536—Washington Nationals

52-48, .515—New York Mets

Post-Trade:

31-33, .477—Washington Nationals

38-24, .619—New York Mets

The results were bad on the field. Storen seemed to lose it mentally and his ERA blew up. Papelbon wasn’t nearly as bad as Storen, but he also wasn’t great and the difference between his ERA and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he was a bit lucky to have an ERA in the threes. Off the field, things were even worse.

Next: Off-Field Problems Post-Trade

The Nationals’ Off-Field Problems Post-Trade

As the losses piled up, the Nationals’ ship started to crack. After a loss to the Mets, Bryce Harper said of the fans, “They left in the seventh, so that was pretty brutal.” The next day, the Nationals blew a six-run lead to the Mets in epic fashion. Leading 7-2 in the top of the seventh, Drew Storen was brought in with the bases loaded. He immediately gave up a three-run double to Yoenis Cespedes, then walked Daniel Murphy. A wild pitch moved them both up a base and David Wright walked to load the bases. Storen’s third walk of the innings, this one to Lucas Duda, allowed the tying run to score.

The Nationals still had a chance heading into the ninth inning. Down by a run, Jayson Werth singled, bringing Anthony Rendon to the plate with Bryce Harper, in the midst of a tremendous season, on deck. On a 3-1 count, Rendon sacrificed Werth to second. Harper then walked and Yunel Escobar hit into a double play to end the game. The media roasted Nationals manager Matt Williams for keeping the bunt sign on with a 3-1 count to Rendon. He was booed at his post-game press conference.

The next day, Storen blew it again. Stephen Strasburg led 2-1 going into the top of the eighth, but allowed a solo home run to Kelly Johnson to tie the game. Strasburg then struck out Kirk Nieuwenhuis, but allowed a single to Curtis Granderson. In comes Drew Storen, with Yoenis Cespedes at the dish. On a 1-0 count, Cespedes took Storen deep and the Mets had a 4-2 lead they would not relinquish. After the game, Storen broke his right thumb while slamming the lock box in his locker. His season was done.

On September 18, manager Williams went to the mound mid-inning to talk to Scherzer and Scherzer yelled at him, insisting on staying in the game. When he got out of the inning, Scherzer stared daggers at Williams in the dugout. It was another sign of tempers flaring on a team that was scrambling to figure out what was happening.

A week later, Papelbon intentionally threw at Manny Machado and was fined and suspended for three games. He appealed the punishment and remained with the team. The Nationals were eliminated from playoff contention the next day, despite all of their pre-season hype.

The straw that broke the camel’s back came on September 27. Bryce Harper, the NL MVP, didn’t run out a pop fly to left and Papelbon got on him as he came back to the dugout. The conversation got heated and Papelbon lunged at Harper, grabbing him by the neck and shoving him against the dugout wall. It was ugly. Papelbon would be suspended by the team for his attack.

That’s how the regular season ended for the Nationals last year. Despite all the hype, and a one game lead in late July, they finished out of the playoffs and were the embarrassment of baseball when the closer they had traded for attacked their best player.

Next: What About the Phillies?

What About the Phillies?

Considering what happened in Washington after Jonathan Papelbon arrived, the Phillies were happy just to be rid of him. At the time of the trade, they were 29-62 and 21 games out in the NL East. They were going nowhere and didn’t need a closer who cost $13 million per season to help them get there. To get rid of Papelbon, the Phillies paid $4.5 million of the $4,830,601 still owed for the 2015 season, but they wouldn’t have to pay the $13 million for this year. They also got Nick Pivetta in the deal.

After the trade, the Phillies went 34-37, a significant improvement on their pre-trade record. They still lost 99 games, but multiple trades brought in some good young pitchers and their future looks better now than it did last year at the All-Star break.

Nick Pivetta was a 4^th round pick in the 2013 June draft. In his first two-and-a-half years as a professional, Pivetta had moved up to AA in the Nationals’ farm system, but he had middling ERAs and strikeout rates. He wasn’t on any Top 100 Prospects Lists. He was an arm that could become something or could wash out of professional baseball in a couple years.

At the time of the deal, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. said that Pivetta could be a back-of-the-rotation starter, as high as a #3 or as low as a #5. One thing Pivetta has going for him is size. He’s 6’5” and his fastball has been clocked as high as 96 mph, but usually sits in the low 90s. After the trade last season, Pivetta went 2-2 with a 7.31 ERA in seven starts. He struck out 25 batters in 28.1 innings, but walked 19.

Next: Where Are They Now?