MLB: Which Active Players Have the Best Chances For 3,000 Hits?

Adrian Beltre, 37 years old, 2,882 hits

When Adrian Beltre signed with the Seattle Mariners prior to the 2005 season, he led Ichiro in career hits, 949 to 924. Beltre had come up with the Dodgers as a 19-year-old in 1998, three years before Ichiro came over to the U.S. from Japan. In those three years, Beltre jumped out to a 338-hit advantage. As soon as Ichiro began his Major League career with the Mariners in 2001, he started to gain ground.

It was during the 2005 season that Ichiro passed Beltre in career hits. Beltre led Ichiro by one hit heading into their game on July 8^th. In that game, Ichiro had a three hit day and moved ahead of Adrian to take a lead he has yet to relinquish. He added to his lead over the next five years and led Beltre by 395 hits after the 2011 season. Beltre’s been narrowing the gap ever since and the deficit is now down to 118 hits.

Beltre has made his journey to the front porch of 3,000 hits in a very different way than Ichiro. Ichiro began his career with 10 consecutive seasons with 200 or more hits. Beltre has just one 200-hit season in his career. There’s also a big difference in their approach. Ichiro often slaps the ball to the left side and sprints to first, while Beltre will swing hard, sometimes dropping to one knee, and still hit homers. For this era, they are both good at making contact relative to their peers.

They also each have their own little idiosyncrasies. Ichiro is constantly stretching, squatting, bending, and twisting, while Beltre is well known for hating having his head touched, especially if shortstop Elvis Andrus is the one doing the touching.

Beltre is likely to finish this year about 70 hits short of 3,000, so he should get there in the middle of the 2017 season. Depending on whether Ichiro comes back to play again in 2017, Beltre could pass his former teammate sometime in the second half next year.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: July, 2017.

Next: The 3,000 Hits and 600 Homers Man

Albert Pujols, 36 years old, 2,774 hits

Albert Pujols is no longer the player he once was, but he keeps marching along to the 3,000 hit mark. He’s currently fourth among active players in career hits, but this is a different player from the guy who was a perennial all-star and three-time MVP in the 2000s. Pujols began his career with 10 straight seasons with at least 5 WAR. He averaged 190 hits per season, with a .331/.426/.624 batting line. He hasn’t had a 5 WAR season since, and has subsequently hit .271/.333/.485 and averaged 146 hits per year.

Pujols needs 226 hits to reach 3,000. Health permitting, he should easily get there. After this year, he still has five more years (and $140 million) left on the huge contract he signed with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the 2012 season. He has other milestones in his sights as well:

Home Runs—Pujols is currently 11^th on the all-time list, with 581 home runs. He’s projected to hit another 9 this year, which would move him up to 9^th on the list. He has a shot at 700 career home runs before all is said and done.

Runs—Pujols is 36^th on the all-time list, with 1,646 runs. He’s projected for 24 more runs in 2016, which would move him up to 30^th on the list. He could finish his career as one of nine players with at least 2,000 runs scored.

RBI—Pujols is 21^st on the all-time list, with 1,784 RBI. He’s projected for another 31 this year, which would move him up to 20^th. He should eclipse the 2,000 RBI mark within two years and has a shot to top Hank Aaron on the all-time list (2,297).

Pujols is projected to finish this year with 2,821 hits. If he gets there, he will be 50^th on the all-time list. With five years left on his contract and factoring in a late-career decline, Pujols could get into the top 10. Paul Molitor currently holds that spot with 3,319 hits.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: May, 2018.

Next: Gettin' Miggy With It

Miguel Cabrera, 33 years old, 2,463hits

Miggy leads all active players in batting average. His .321 career mark is 48^th in baseball history for players with 3,000 or more plate appearances and he’s led the American League in hitting four times in the last five years. Before last season, when he was limited to 119 games because of injury, Cabrera was a human metronome, as reliable as Old Faithful. From 2004 to 2014, he never played fewer than 148 games. He averaged 157 games played and 679 plate appearances per year during this 11-year stretch.

He’s back playing every day in 2016, having appeared in 112 of the Tigers’ first 113 games. A recent hot streak has his batting line at .311/.385/.552. As good as that is, it’s still below his career line. He is 33 years old, after all.

Not only is Miggy a great hitter who is on his way to 3,000 hits, 500 homers, and 2,000 RBI in his career, he is also one of the few players in MLB history to pull off the “Kelly Leak” move from The Bad News Bears:

Miguel Cabrera compares quite well with the guy just above him on this list, Albert Pujols. Here are their career numbers through the age of 33, with the caveat that Miggy has another 48 games to play this season to add to his totals.

8,546 PA, 2,347 H, 492 HR, 1,498 RBI, .321/.410/.599—Albert Pujols

8,803 PA, 2,463 H, 434 HR, 1,521 RBI, .320/.398/.561—Miguel Cabrera

Pujols looks like a safe bet to reach 3,000 hits and Cabrera has more hits than Pujols did at the same age. Miggy just needs to stay healthy. He should finish this season with around 2,500 career hits, which means his 3,000^th could happen as soon as the 2019 season or early 2020.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: April, 2020.

Next: The $240 Million Man

Robinson Cano, 33 years old, 2,149 hits

As we move away from the Albert Pujols/Miguel Cabrera tier of players, the odds of accumulating 3,000 hits get longer. Prior to this season, Robinson Cano hit over .300 eight times in his first 11 years in the big leagues while averaging 183 hits per year. He’s currently hitting .295 and projected for a 186 hit season. He should end up with right around 2,220 hits for his career at the end of 2016. That’s 300 hits short of Miguel Cabrera, who is the same age as Cano, and more than 600 hits behind Albert Pujols, who is three years older.

As a New York Yankee, Cano hit .309/.355/.504. In his two-plus seasons with the Mariners, he’s hit .298/.355/.467. One thing Cano has going for him is a relatively low walk rate. Both Pujols and Cabrera have walked more than 11% of the time in their careers. Cano’s career walk rate is 6.4%. This gives him more opportunities to crank out hits.

Another thing Cano has going for him is durability. He’s averaged 159 games played and 675 plate appearances over the last nine years and has not played fewer than 156 games during that stretch. He just doesn’t take a day off. In fact, he’s played every game for the Mariners this year except one.

If Cano hits his projection for the next 53 games, he’ll finish the year with around 2,200 career hits. His contract with the Mariners lasts through the 2023 season, so he’ll have seven years to get 800 more hits.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: May, 2022.

Next: The Little Engine That Could

Jose Altuve, 26 years old, 989 hits

The four players above Altuve on this list all have at least 2,000 hits. Now we’re dropping down to players who have a much longer way to go to get to 3,000. They are all off to good starts, but it takes the best mix of production and playing time to get there.

Jose Altuve led the league in hitting in 2014 and is leading the league once again this year, currently batting .361. He’s also on pace to lead the AL in hits for the third consecutive season and is likely to finish this year with over 200 hits for the third straight year. He’s also added home run power to his game.

Altuve has the characteristics necessary to get 200-plus hits each year. He has played in at least 147 games in each of the last four years and is on pace to do so again this year. He hits for a high average, with a career mark of .313. And he doesn’t walk much, just 5.7% of the time in his career, although he has a career-high 9.6% walk rate this year.

Altuve still has a long way to go to get to 3,000. He should finish this year with around 1,040 hits. If he can bang out 190 hits a year for the next five years, he would be at 2,000 through the age of 31. Only 26 players in baseball history have had 2,000 or more hits through that age. Like most players, he’ll probably start a decline in his late-20s or early 30s, but he can slow down through his 30s and still get to 3,000 if he stays healthy and somewhat productive.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: April, 2029.

Next: The Macho Man, Yeeahhhh!

Manny Machado, 23 years old, 643 hits

Machado had an early start to his Major League career when he came up as a 19-year-old for the Baltimore Orioles in 2012. He had 50 hits in 51 games that year, then had a career-high 189 hits as a 20-year-old the next season. Only five players in baseball history had more hits in a season as a 20-year-old than Machado did in 2013. Injuries limited him to 82 games in 2014, but he came back strong with a 181-hit season last year and is projected for another 180-plus hits this year. If he gets there, he’ll have close to 700 career hits through his age 23 season, which would be around 300 more than Jose Altuve had through his age 23 season.

Machado has a career batting average of .285 and has walked 6.8% of the time, but he’s upped his walk rate over the last two years to the 8% to 10% range. This is great for his on-base percentage but reduces his chances to get hits. Still, at his age he can conceivably get 180 or so hits for the next five years and reach 1,500 when he’s in his late 20s. Of course, staying healthy is key to getting to 3,000. It’s one thing that set Pete Rose apart from most players in the history of the game. Pete played almost every day for nearly 20 years. Machado is on his way to his third season in the last four with 150 or more games played. He’ll need to keep this up to reach the magic mark. He also recently had a 3-homer, 7 RBI day:

A healthy and productive Manny Machado could get to 2,000 hits by the age of 31 or 32, then begin a slow fade on his way to 3,000 in his late 30s or early 40s.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: June, 2032.

Next: The World's Greatest Player

Mike Trout, 24 years old, 868 hits

Mr. WAR, Mike Trout, is projected to finish this year, his age 24 season, with 921 hits. Only 12 players in the history of baseball have had more hits through the age of 24 (side note: one of those 12 is Buddy Lewis, who has the second-most hits ever through age 24, with only Ty Cobb accumulating more knocks. I bet very few people have heard of Buddy Lewis).

Every baseball fan in the country knows what a great player Mike Trout is. He averaged 9.5 WAR (per Fangraphs) during his first four full seasons in the big leagues and is gunning for another 10 WAR season this year. Whether you like Fangraphs WAR or Baseball-Reference WAR doesn’t matter; Trout has led the AL in both versions of WAR in each full season of his career (yet only has one MVP award). He can hit for average, hit for power, run, throw, and do this:

As amazing as Mike Trout is, he doesn’t have a 200-hit season. In his four full seasons, he’s averaged 179 hits per year despite a .308 batting average. The problem with Trout is that he walks too much. Well, that’s not really a problem in the grand scheme of things, but Trout’s 13% career walk rate limits his ability to put up 200-hit seasons like Jose Altuve (5.7% walk rate) or Ichiro Suzuki (6.0% walk rate).

While his walk rate makes it hard for Trout to get 180 or more hits each year, he does have durability on his side. Over the last three years, he’s played in 157, 157, and 159 games and has played in every Angel’s game so far this year. To reach 3,000 hits, he’ll have to continue to stay healthy. I could see Trout getting to the 2,000 hits mark by the age of 31. Then, factoring in a decline as he moves through his 30s, he would likely get to 3,000 hits around the age of 39 or 40.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: September, 2032.

Next: The X-Man

Xander Bogaerts, 23 years old, 480 hits

Like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts is playing his age 23 season. Unlike Manny Machado, Bogaerts will not have 700 hits by the end of the year, but he should be over 500 easily, which would be more than 100 hits ahead of Jose Altuve at the same age. Since the start of the 2015 season, Altuve is the MLB leader in batting average, at .331. Xander Bogaerts is third, at .319 (Miguel Cabrera is in between them, at .323). Altuve and Bogaerts are first and second in hits during this span.

Bogaerts compares favorably to Altuve in another area that is important for picking up hits in bunches—a relatively low walk rate. Bogaerts career rate of 6.3% is slightly higher than Altuve’s 5.7%, but not too high that it prevents him from getting 180 or more hits per season. He had 196 hits last year and is projected to finish with over 200 this year.

Last year, Bogaerts knocked a ball into the right-field corner that became one of those Little League home runs you see every now and then in the big leagues. Bogaerts slide is masterful on this play:

One thing Bogaerts might want to consider down the road is just how well he’s hit at Fenway Park. In his career, Bogaerts is a .315/.371/.448 hitter in Boston and .267/.306/.377 hitter on the road. He might want to follow in the footsteps of teammate Dustin Pedrioa and stick with Boston in the future (Pedroia is a .314 hitter at Fenway, .283 everywhere else).

Bogearts should finish this year with over 500 career hits. Three more good years would get him to 1,000 at the age of 26 and he could get to 1,500 by the age of 30. From there, it’s all about health and production in his decline years.

Prediction for 3,000^th hit: June, 2033.

Next: A Few VERY Long shots

A Few VERY Longshots

Starlin Castro, 26 years old, 1098 hits

Castro should finish this year with close to 1,150 hits, which will put him ahead of Jose Altuve at the same age. The trouble with Castro is a career batting average of .279 that is falling over the last two seasons (he’s hit .262 since the start of last year). The lowest career batting average of any member of the 3,000 Hits Club is Cal Ripken, Jr.’s .276.

Castro has also had an on-base percentage under .300 in each of the last two years and projects to be worth less than one Win Above Replacement for the second year in a row. So, despite being ahead of Jose Altuve, Castro is fading fast. He’ll need to turn his career around just to stick around long enough to get to 2,000 hits. 

Bryce Harper, 23 years old, 611 hits 

Like Machado and Bogaerts, Harper is in his age 23 season. He has fewer hits than Machado, but more than Bogaerts. One of the big differences among the three is that Harper has walked in nearly 19% of his plate appearances over the last two years, so he’ll likely finish this year with around 300 hits over that stretch while Machado and Bogaerts will be closer to 400 hits. Harper has also dealt with injuries over the years. Injuries and a high walk rate are likely to prevent him from getting 3,000 career hits.

Mookie Betts, 23 years old, 376 hits

Mookie Betts is a great young player who will likely have over 400 career hits through his age 23 season, but that still puts him more than 100 behind Xander Bogaerts and close to 300 behind Manny Machado, who are the same age. He would need to either up his batting average or have an extended peak and gentle fade to get to 3,000 hits.

The Entire List

2882 hits, 37 years old—Adrian Beltre

2774 hits, 36 years old—Albert Pujols

2463 hits, 33 years old—Miguel Cabrera

2149 hits, 33 years old—Robinson Cano

989 hits, 26 years old—Jose Altuve

868 hits, 23 years old—Mike Trout

643 hits, 23 years old—Manny Machado

480 hits, 23 years old—Xander Bogaerts

A Few VERY Longshots

1098, 26 years old—Starlin Castro

611 hits, 23 years old—Bryce Harper

376 hits, 23 years old—Mookie Betts

Next: Ichiro the Target of Idiotic Tweet

Trying to figure out what a player will do in one season is difficult enough; projecting a career’s worth of hits is impossible. There are just so many things that could sidetrack a promising career. These 11 active players have the best shot to get there based on what they’ve done so far. Check back in 2033 and see how many of them completed the journey.