MLB: Which Active Players Have the Best Chances For 3,000 Hits?

Aug 7, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; The center field sign at Coors Field after Miami Marlins center fielder Ichiro Suzuki (not pictured) hit his 3000 major league hit in the seventh inning of the game against the Colorado Rockies. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

These are the active MLB players with the best chance to get 3,000 career hits.

When Ichiro Suzuki rapped a triple for his 3,000^th hit on Sunday, he became the 30^th player in Major League Baseball history to reach that mark. The list includes 13 left-handed batters, 15 right-handed batters, and two switch-hitters (Pete Rose and Eddie Murray). Pete Rose tops the list, with 4,256 hits, while Roberto Clemente finished with exactly 3,000 hits. The 30 members of the 3,000 Hits Club include 19 who have a batting average over .300, including Ichiro, who is 13^th on the list. His 507 steals rank sixth among these players.

Ichiro now has 49 games over the rest of this season to pass Al Kaline (3,007 hits), Wade Boggs (3,010), Rafael Palmeiro (3,020), and Lou Brock (3,023). If he does so, he will finish the year in 24^th place on the all-time hit list. He’s unlikely to get enough playing time to reach Rickey Henderson in the 23^rd spot (3055 hits). Still, that’s not bad for a guy who got the latest start of any member of the club. Ichiro was 27 years, 162 days old when he debuted in the Major Leagues. The next-oldest was Wade Boggs, at 23 years, 315 days old.

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Getting 3,000 hits is incredibly hard. A player must be able to hit for a good average, not walk too much, and be very durable. The 30 members of the 3,000 Hits Club have combined to hit .310, with a 9.9% walk rate, and all had more than 10,000 plate appearances. Durability is key. In Ichiro’s first 12 years in the Major Leagues, he averaged 159 games played and 727 plate appearances. To get to 3,000 hits, a player can’t have too many injuries or take too many days off. It’s the daily grind, hit after hit after hit.

To get an idea of how many players in a 20-year period make it into the 3,000 Hits Club, this is a look at birth years at 20-year intervals and the number of players with 3,000 hits who were born within that range:

Born between 1956 and 1975—11 members

Born between 1936 and 1955—7 members

Born between 1916 and 1935—5 members

Born between 1896 and 1915—1 member

Born between 1876 and 1895—3 members

Born between 1866 and 1875—2 members

Born between 1846 and 1865—1 member

The top two groups played most or all of their careers in the 162-game era. The previous years played at most 154 games in the regular season. If history is our guide, the group of players born between 1976 and 1995 should produce in the range of 8-10 players with 3,000 hits.

With that in mind, I looked at current MLB players to determine who may join Ichiro in this elite club. The following list includes players with the potential to get there based on how they’ve started their careers, but of course anything can happen along the way to derail their journey.

Ichiro was a teammate of two players currently in the 3,000 Hits Club, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. He missed being teammates with a third player in the club, Rickey Henderson, who played for the 2000 Mariners the year before Ichiro came over to the U.S. from Japan. The player most likely to reach 3,000 hits next is a former teammate of Ichiro as well.

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